Out of town today so going to have a shorter style article today with some quick hits and how I’m ranking my plays tonight. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- D’Angelo Russell – Chalky but gets a price drop in a better matchup. He’s close to a lock tonight although I’m slightly concerned about his minutes tonight after a 2OT game last night.
- Shabazz Napier – With both Russell and Dinwiddie playing heavy minutes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkinson lead on Napier a bit more in the 2nd unit.
- Derrick Rose – Rose has flashed his upside this season and is close to as #back as he will ever get. This total isn’t huge but it’s going to be a close game in which Rose gets a + defensive matchup.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Kelly Oubre – Oubre is one of those guys that really never comes through when he is popular. He should fall under the radar tonight at SG with so many great chalky options (Burks/Bogdan/Bojan/Beal/Holiday) at the position. Oubre’s ceiling is massive in this spot with the Nets.
- Gordon Hayward – Hayward is just waiting on his shot to come back and his price is going to remain in this 5k range until further notice. He’s appropriately priced for his weak production of late but will pop off soon once he finds his shot/confidence. The Celtics trust him.
- Reggie Bullock – For just 3.8k we’re getting a guy playing over 30 minutes per game albeit a lower end usage rate. This feels like a Ryan Arcidiacono spot.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Jeff Green – Green let people down a bit last night but his low usage and minutes was more the result of a blowout than his lack of production. The Nets struggle with PF’s this season and Green is the stretch four that constantly hurts them.
- Thaddeus Young – A volatile usage player while on the court Young has posted back to back 6x+ games and in turn, is seeing his price creep up to what we should expect.
- Kawhi Leonard – Leonard is going to be fairly popular tonight but SF is very weak unless you’re paying in the mid-tier for chalk in Bogdan or Parker.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – RHJ doesn’t seem to be on a minutes limit at all after getting 38 minutes last night so I’m confident in his conditioning to come out here tonight against the Wizards in which they’ll need to him to produce for a chance to win. At 5.5k RHJ has 8k upside.
- Ed Davis – If you want to take a more contrarian strategy, it is likely some Nets players don’t see there normal allotment of minutes tonight. If RHJ isn’t up to come out tonight and play his normal minutes, Ed Davis could break the slate in the value tier at 3.4k.
- Robert Covington – Three and D Cov who is going to need an efficient shooting night to hit value. However, he’s projected for over 38 minutes tonight and is a pretty safe play if you’re looking to pivot off of Parker and bet on him busting.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Jarrett Allen – Allen has 8-10x upside and should see upwards of 30 minutes tonight in an up-pace matchup against the Wizards who struggle heavily against centers. Allen is a steal at 5.4k who will be able to contribute across multiple categories.
- Myles Turner – Turner is a major boom or bust candidate with his price up to 5.9k on Draftkings with his minutes not topping 30 since November 7th. However, in the past two weeks, he has only failed to hit 30DK points twice.
- Larry Nance Jr. – Nance is finally seeing consistent minutes and really carries massive upside as a staple in a tight Cavs rotation. Although he hasn’t flashed this FP/min upside the past few weeks we know it’s there and a pace up matchup could be the remedy for Nance.
Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage
