Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/5/18)
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The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Ricky Rubio
Rubio’s production is not directly correlated to his shot efficiency but for the most part, his ceiling is. He is a lock in the assist/steal peripheral department while relying on his erratic three-point shot to really hit that 50 point upside. It has been extremely encouraging to see Rubio have games spiking with 7 3-point attempts this season which shows he is willing to take these shots. The Raptors have struggled mightily against point-guards this year in scoring so I love this spot for Rubio.
Fade: Jrue Holiday
This is tough but I think Holiday is a clear fade for me on this slate. This mid-high tier range is not how my lineup construction is going where I’m either trying to get up to Westbrook or pay down for Rubio/Beverly. Holiday should struggle to see a ceiling at this price.
Top GPP Play: Klay Thompson
A pace down game against a defense that has been great against SG’s this season might not seem ideal but it is going to drive all the ownership off who some consider being the greatest shooter of all time. We saw Klay’s upside earlier this season and he really has a massive season at a sub-6k price on Draftkings. Amazing GPP play at a volatile shooting guard position.
Fade: Josh Richardson
Richardson is extremely similair to Thompson where he really relies on his shot to post a big score. With Richardson’s price approaching 8k there is no chance I roster him on this slate. Even if I was playing 150 lineups tonight I’d have 0% Richardson tonight which is saying something. This price for him is insane for a guard so dependent on shot efficiency.
Top GPP Play: Cedi Osman
Osman is a stat sheet stuffer but has been extremely inefficient with a player efficiency rating of under 10. While this is some concern it is notable that Osman basically has all the opportunity in the world on this team between starting and playing over 30 minutes per game. In this matchup against two terrible teams, he should see 35 minutes of action where his ceiling is legitimately 8-9X if his usage rate bounces back to the mid 20s.
Fade: Andrew Wiggins
With Butler probable tonight there’s no chance I’m considering rostering Wiggins who looks more and more like a busted max contract every time he steps on the floor. All he can do is score which he isn’t doing with a true shooting % and player effiency rating lower than that of Sam Dekker this season. That should tell you all you need to know.
Top GPP Play: Aaron Gordon
Although Gordon is a risky play I think he carries a pretty high floor and subsquently a high ceiling in a game that should stay close throughout. Gordon is coming off a 40+minute game and that type of workload is bound to see him hit value at only 6.5k on Draftkings tonight. This man has a legit 50+point ceiling and is coming off a 39.5 and 44.50 DK point games in his last three. Lock for me.
Fade: Kevin Durant
Priced fairly in a difficult matchup with a gritty/defensively impressive Grizzlies team. There is too much else we can pay up for without focusing on the two studs for the Warriors (KD/Curry). Also didn’t write him up today but I like Paul George on this slate – incoming 4-25 shooting night.
Top GPP Play: Boban Marjonovic
Don’t overthink this one. Boban is an ABSOLUTE LOCK tonight. He got screwed out of 10-12x the other night and should be primed for another 10x game tonight if things go our way. He is dominant on the floor with the highest player efficiency rating in the entire NBA.
Fade: Nikola Jokic
No shot. Don’t pay up at center unless it’s for KAT on this slate. Jokic has a terrible matchup in an extremely low projected Vegas total. These are not the type of games where we see Jokic ceiling games. Don’t stress him tonight and just hit the X on him (FADE).
Written By: Robert Viafora
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