Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/9/19)
Massive 10-game slate tonight. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Plays:
- Donovan Mitchell: Donovan Mitchell is poised for a massive game tonight. His price is now down to 7.3k on Draftkings and he’s matched up against the Magic. With Rubio injured, Mitchell is going to see a major spike in usage where he should hover around 28-32%. On a slate where Mitchell is projected for under 15% owned at 7.3k playing over 35 minutes with a usage rate around 30% I am close to all in. The matchup is pretty neutral as the Magic have been decent against guards this season but the opportunity is too great for an underpriced Mitchell. Although D’Angelo Russell is the much better play tonight from a matchup perspective, Mitchell provides a pivot with equal upside at half the ownership.
- Dennis Smith Jr.: DSJ’s price has just been free-falling with the emergence of Luka Doncic. Tonight both DSJ and Luka are questionable. I’m assuming both will be in play but it is definitely news I will be monitoring closely up to lock. Ultimately if Doncic gets ruled out DSJ will turn into mega chalk at sub-5k on Draftkings. DSJ has seen some pretty volatile usage lately, with as low as 11.4% to over 30% at times over the past two months. This volatility is something we can capitalize on if we can hit DSJ in the right games. A matchup with the Suns who rank in the bottom 1/2 of the league in defensive rating against guards + the 114 vegas implied total for the Mavericks lines up as a great opportunity for DSJ to post a significant fantasy score tonight.
Top GPP Plays:
- Khris Middleton: Middleton is a player who is consistently considered one of the most underrated players in the NBA. With Brogdon taking over as the #2 the past couple games we have seen a slight decrease in Middleton’s shots/usage which is unlikely to continue in the long-term. Middleton routinely sees usage spikes above 30% and seems to always want to show out in big games. This matchup against the Rockets where the gameplan will be to slow down Giannis could be a perfect opportunity for Middleton to thrive. His price is down over $1,000 from his season high of 7.5k offering some major ceiling if things go right in this game. He’s one of my favorite options at SG regardless of cash games or GPP’s but it is notable he’s projected for single digit ownership.
- Kyle Korver: With Mitchell likely sliding over to the point and taking over a lot of responsibility there, it is likely Kyle Korver sees a bump in minutes and usage at the 2 for the Jazz tonight. At just 3.2k on Draftkings, he is a fantastic punt who could take anywhere between 7 – 10 three-pointers tonight. I don’t mind taking a punt on one of the best 3-pt shooters of all time to get hot and absolutely crush his price tag. I love pairing him up with Mitchell in GPPs and soaking up a ton of the Jazz points tonight.
Top GPP Plays:
- Aaron Gordon: People are going to be scared off of Gordon tonight due to the matchup with the Jazz frontcourt but he makes for a perfect correlation play with the Jazz players I’m utilizing in GPPs. This is a different Jazz team this year and this is actually a (+) matchup for Gordon in addition to a pace up game (surprising I know). Gordon is way too cheap at 6.4k considering how many minutes he’s been playing lately. If he can put together a solid shooting night he could easily go for over 50 DK points.
- Josh Jackson: Jackson has correctly seen a major price bump on Draftkings for the role he is sliding into with Devin Booker out. While Jackson will likely be chalky on Fanduel tonight due to the cheaper price plus a higher reward for steals/blocks, he’s projected for under 15% ownership on Draftkings where his ceiling is 8-9x in this spot. The Mavericks are playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA this year and Jackson should be locked into heavy minutes for as long as Booker is out. As a starter he consistently gets over 20% usage and makes for a fantastic play again tonight.
Top GPP Plays:
- Jaren Jackson: Jaren Jackson is clearly one of the best rookies out of this draft but really hasn’t gotten the ‘ownership respect’ he deserves in DFS due to his minutes limit at times throughout this season. Ignoring his last game where he only played 21 minutes, Jackson had seen three straight contests of 30+ minutes on the floor. Due to this volatility most minutes projections I’ve analyzed have Jackson below the 30 minute mark. At just 5.4k on Draftkings, I’m projecting him for between 31-33 minutes in which a 1.01 FP/min producer should easily be able to post a significant GPP score tonight. The matchup is solid against the Spurs (24th in NBA in defensive rating against forwards) and this is actually a pace up game for the Grizzlies. Don’t let the total of this game get your of Jaren Jackson tonight.
- Lauri Markkanen: Markkanen is a guy we know what we’re going to get. He’s heavily involved in this Bulls offense and is up there in the top-10 for usage of power forwards eligible on this 10 game slate. Pretty signifcant for a guy priced 6.3k in a pace up matchup against the Blazers. Markkanen is a consistent threat from 3-PT range (bump on DK) and plays HEAVY minutes for the Bulls where games stay close. The spread is only -9.5 in this game which leads me to believe that Markkanen should close this one out if the game goes as scripted. He has legit 50 DK point upside if he can hit the double-double mark while adding a few threes.
Top GPP Plays:
- Marc Gasol: Obviously I say this every time Marc Gasol is in a prime spot, he’s not a sexy play. You likely won’t see him on the highlight reel dunking over LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. However, if you’re looking for a pivot off guys like John Collins (I do love that play but very chalky), Gasol offers that 50 DK point ceiling for now just 6.5k on Draftkings, which is the cheapest he’s been priced since the start of this season. In any game that stays close, Gasol should be locked in for 35-38 minutes. This one against the Spurs is projected to be tight (3 point spread) and Gasol should be locked in for those big minutes.
- Jacob Poetl: On the other side I don’t mind taking a punt on Jacob Poetl at just 3.6k. Poetl who is now a regular starter for the Spurs, has been effective as someone who doesn’t take on a major usage role. In a situation similair to the Pistons where the Spurs will need to play big to matchup with Gasol/Jackson Poetl should be locked in for 25+ minutes tonight where the amount of time on the court should provide massive upside considering his price tag. He’s a fantastic punt at center.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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