Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/4/18)
A solid 10-game slate on our hands with some interesting minimum priced value. To get my full thought’s on the slate check out our NBA Live show at some point between now and lock. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Plays:
- Kris Dunn: I talked on the livestream how it feels like Draftkings wants us to gravitate towards these Bulls players with how cheap their pricing is but I really only have interest in two of them. Kris Dunn is one who is back to playing heavy minutes for the Bulls and seeing a respectable usage rate consistently over 22%. Dunn has not yet flashed his 50 DK point ceiling we know he has and I’m going to ride him until we get that game. This is a solid spot for that to happen tonight where nobody is going to be on Bulls players where they are implied for under 100 points.
- Emmanuel Mudiay: Getting a ball-handler in this game at under 10% owned is #nice. That seems to be the route we’re going to be getting tonight with so many options on this slate and the ownership spread so thin. Judging on Mudiay’s form and the total in this game it would be extremely difficult for him NOT to hit minimum 5x. Obviously in GPPs we’re looking for a lot more and Mudiay has shown a 50+ DK point ceiling after taking over the starting PG role. I have a lot of interest.
Top GPP Plays:
- Zach LaVine: LaVine’s price has dropped signifcantly and he is seeing minimal ownership every single night due to the fact that Kris Dunn is back in the starting lineup and people seem to think LaVine’s usage would free fall. However, LaVine has stayed consistent with the usage he’s been seeing over the course of the whole season. LaVine is in a game with a very low vegas implied total but he is now priced 6.3k (DROPPED $300 because of a blowout) and is still going to see his 35 minutes barring a blowout (blowout happened last game). It would be difficult to see a game in which LaVine doesn’t hit value while providing elite upside. LOVE LaVine tonight.
- Josh Okogie: The return of Jeff Teague is going to scare everyone off of Okogie. However, even with Teague’s reinsertion to the lineup Okogie is projected to see over 30 minutes of run on the floor tonight at a sub-4k price on Draftkings. He is an ELITE value that seems to be going overlooked because of the Teague factor which makes him a fantastic pivot off of some of the other value on this slate that is projected to be chalkier but which I am not in love with.
Top GPP Plays:
- Gordon Hayward: And just like that Gordon Hayward went from one of my favorite plays on the slate to one of the chalkiest plays on the slate with the news of Marcus Morris being out. This is fine as I still love the Gordon Hayward upside and am less concerned about ownership factors on a huge slate. I may have implemented less exposure if this was 4-6 games but I think we’re safe from going over 35% in most contests. Hayward flashed 10x upside and even with the price rise is still under-priced for the player he is capable of when he’s taking shots. A confidence boost may have been all he needed and we know he’s in line for close to 20 shot attempts tonight with both Kyrie and Marcus Morris OUT.
- Jonathan Isaac: I’m not in love with Giannis today leaving the upside at the SF position a bit barren. Gordon Hawyard will likely be in 100% of my lineups leaving me looking for a value option at either the PF/F position to pay up for some guards/centers I like elsewhere. At 3.7k I can’t see a world in which I’d take Shaq Harrison over Jonathan Issac. Isaac is going to be half the ownerhsip and has about 1.5x the ceiling. It is signifcant on a slate like this to make the correct pivots in the value tier and I believe Isaac provides the upside I’m looking for.
Top GPP Plays:
- Kevin Knox: Knox has been a solid player and is looking like one of the best out of the most recent draft. People are going to have concerns playing him at 5.9k but the kid has scored double digit points in 11 straight games and doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon. Knox is an easy way to get exposure to this game at single digit ownership where he has a high floor/ceiling combo. He should thrive on the boards in this game as well just increasing his ceiling.
- Josh Jackson (punt): Not really sure why we aren’t seeing the Suns giving Josh Jackson 35 minutes per game but it is what it is. We saw what he is capable of towards the end of last season and I hope the Suns realize they are crippling a talent by not letting him to develop. Jackson should see 25 minutes tonight minimum in what should be a very high-paced game. These are the type of games Jackson thrived in during college and what we saw him play his best throuhgout last season. Jackson is a fantastic play on both Draftkings and Fanduel tonight and is one of my favorite punts on the board where he will be 2% owned.
Top GPP Plays:
- DeAndre Ayton: Ayton provides almost the same ceiling as Towns tonight for more than a $2,000 discount. Ayton has been a beast all season and should give Doncic a run for his money in ROY. Ayton is playing heavy minutes for the Suns while seeing one of the highest usage rates among centers. The Clippers rank 21st in defensive rating against centers, in a pace up game, with a 233 total (the highest on the slate). Ayton is a LOCK tonight.
- Jarrett Allen: There are a ton of options to like on center tonight so it was difficult to narrow down my pool to two (check livestream for more options) but I love the upside of Jarrett Allen tonight where he provides that 8x ceiling for 5.2k on Draftkings. People are going to be terrified of this matchup with the Grizzlies but with Jarren Jackson and Marc Gasol on the floor we should see a lot of Allen/Davis in the lineup which should lead to an increase in Allen’s minutes where I think he could reach the 30-32 range tonight. He’s been an effective FP/min produces and makes a ton of sense in GPPs tonight. I’m not scared off by the tough matchup.
Written By: Robert Viafora
The future of Fantasy
/ 13 mins ago
Over Under 2/2 – Phoenix Suns/Minnesota Wolves This is simply a matchup based play....