We have a 6-game slate tonight that should be fairly chalky so I’m going to keep this article fairly short. If you’re wondering who the chalk is tonight hit me up on Discord and I’ll be sure to give you the locks. It’s going to be tough getting off of the elite/obvious plays but we’ll try to find some spots to expose in my article today. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
BALL IN!
Point Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Dennis Smith Jr.: He almost went bonkers the other night after a massive 1st quarter but got overshadowed by Doncic the rest of the game. Smith should have the opportunity to post a massive game again tonight and his time is coming. A usage rate over 20% plus 32+ minutes a game is a great sign for an explosive playmaker. He’s a fantastic pivot at the PG position.
- Trey Burke: Who knows what’s going on in NY… With that being said whenever Burke gets minutes he plays pretty darn well and holds a very high usage rate usually over 28%. At 3.9k on a chalky slate he’s worth the punt to get one of the more expensive guys into your lineup.
Shooting Guard
Top GPP Plays:
- Brandon Ingram: Ingram is going to be on the lower-owned side now that Rondo is back and that might be what we need to see an Ingram ceiling game. Rondo is one of the best plays on the slate and pairing up a ball distributor like that with someone with Ingram’s potential sets you up for a lineup with a very high ceiling.
- Dwayne Wade: Wade at MSG sounds fun and it should be. All players seem to ‘show up’ here and in what could be one of Wade’s final times on the hardware here I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get some extended minutes tonight. Wade has always played with a high usage rate this season when on the court and I like getting exposure to him in narrative spots like these.
Small Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- Justise Winslow: Point Winslow seems to be one of the better decisions by Erik Spoelstra as Winslow has been thriving. Winslow is averaging 1.07 FP/min and has a quiet elite ceiling. Getting exposure to Winslow on a slate like this where he is projected to fall below 15% (I’m projecting < 10%), could be the key to a big payday as long as you’re appropriately exposed to the chalk on the slate (Rondo/Faried/etc…). 6.3k is not a bad price for Winslow.
- Kawhi Leonard: If you’re looking to differentiate away from Harden I think pairing up former teammates Leonard and Aldridge is the way to go. It’s crazy but Leonard is 4k cheaper than Harden. Leonard has been elite this season and is the true alpha on this Raptors team in every which way averaging close to 1.4 FP/min. This is a matchup against the Mavs who like to play fast and I have the over on this game at 219. Leonard should be doing it all tonight in Dallas.
Power Forward
Top GPP Plays:
- LaMarcus Aldridge: As I said pairing Leonard with Aldridge should be a unique way to differentiate off of Harden chalk while maintaining a fairly elite ceiling. This is a low-key fantastic matchup for Aldridge against the Wizards who are 26th in defensive rating against forwards over their last 10 games. Aldridge has been playing extremely well of late averaging 1.27 FP/min over the past month. He should be able to sustain and even exceed this fantasy efficiency tonight given the matchup and the O/U on this game.
- Serge Ibaka: Ibaka has been a bit overshadowed by Siakam (my boy) but has been having a fantastic season and is an uncharacteristically consistent fantasy producer. Ibaka has flashed a ceiling at times this season as well putting up multiple 45+ DK point games. Ibaka may have his work cut out for him on the defensive end dealing with DeAndre Jordan but his versatility should be able to expose Jordan on the opposite end of the floor.
Center
Top GPP Plays:
- Rudy Gobert: Again, it’s tough to fit Gobert in a lineup if you’re plugging in Rondo/Faried/Harden but if you are fading Harden it makes it possible to fit Gobert into your lineups. Gobert is perfect for GPPs where no one likes to play him because he isn’t ‘exciting’ but he is 8.5k for a reason and underrated from a fantasy perspective where he averages 1.37 FP/min. Towns is one of the softest players in the NBA and should be absolutely manhandled by Gobert tonight on both ends.
- Ivica Zubac: Zubac should get more minutes. We all know this. With LeBron’s ‘camp’ reportedly requesting a coaching change I imagine that Luke Walton is sweating in his boots and will make a change to this lineup fast. The return of Rondo plus inserting Zubac into the lineup just might be enough to save his job. Ayton is one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA and Zubac is on fire averaging 1.24 FP/min. 4.8k is a steal given his upside. If he can get over 25 minutes he could post an insane score.
Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage
