Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/2/18)
Tonight we have a 9-game slate with a ton of great value plays available. This will make it pretty easy to pay up for some big name player’s and that is where I likely will be differentiating from the field. I’m going to talk about some of the lower-owned “stud” plays I like tonight. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Plays:
- Devin Booker: The value on this slate is pretty easy to identify and I know some of our other analysts will have them listed in their article (AP/Ben), so I’m going to talk about the higher tiered players I’m on that should have thin spread ownership due to a 9-game slate. Devin Booker stands out to me as a fantastic play where his price has come down a bit to 8.3k. Booker is averaging over 1.3 FP/min the past month and essentially has the 2nd highest ceiling at the PG position outside of Russell Westbrook who likely will be the most popular option at the PG spot. Booker gives you that elite upside while getting him at half the ownership as Westbrook and lower than a lot of other guys priced around him on this slate. He’s one of my favorite plays on the board.
- D’Angelo Russell: This game is going to have A LOT of points scored in it. This is a pace up game for the Nets who have started to play at a higher pace than what they started the season with. D’Angelo Russell falshed what kind of ceiling he has with Caris LeVert sidelined and his price is now just 7k again in a 230 total. This is the type of night D’Angelo Russell takes 20+ shot attempts. He’s a guard that can stuff the stat sheet and I absolutely love him in that mid tier on this slate at single digit ownership.
Top GPP Plays:
- Zach LaVine: LaVine’s price has dropped signifcantly and he is seeing minimal ownership every single night due to the fact that Kris Dunn is back in the starting lineup and people seem to think LaVine’s usage would free fall. However, LaVine has stayed consistent with the usage he’s been seeing over the course of the whole season. LaVine is in a game with a very low vegas implied total but he is now priced 6.6k and is still going to see his 35 minutes barring a blowout. It would be difficult to see a game in which LaVine doesn’t hit value while providing elite upside.
- Luka Doncic: Getting a player with the usage rate that Doncic has at the shooting guard position is always one of my keys in NBA DFS, especially on Draftkings hwere you can get SG eligible players that are actually PG’s for their team. Doncic has been insane over the course of the past month and even at an elevated price tag I feel extremely comfortable rostering him. The last time he scored under 30 DK points was December 5th, nearly a month ago. This game has a respectable total over 220 and Doncic should be the main facilitator for the Mavericks. People are nervous about the price on Draftkings but I’m not. His ceiling is 50+.
Top GPP Plays:
- Jayson Tatum: It’s been a while since we heard of Jayson Tatum after a slower start to the season but with Gordon Hayward now on the bench, Tatum seems to be excelling in his role. He has been playing better over the course of the past month in terms of shooting efficiency and picking up periphrial’s while showcasing a ceiling near 50 DK points. With Kyrie Irving sidelined, we’re going to see a major uptick in Tatum’s shot attempts and I really don’t understand why he’s projected for single digit ownership tonight. He’s a great play to pay for in the mid-tier at SF.
- Aaron Gordon: Gordon is another play in the 6k range that will essentially go un-owned on this slate because of the total in his game. This is a game between some weaker sloppy offenses but I’m on the over and I think if this game goes as I scripted it, LaVine AND Gordon should be able to post monster scores. This is a pace up matchup with a Bulls team that has been playing extremely slower recently likely leading to this total decrease. Gordon is going to see 35+ minutes and is essentially the 1B option on this team. He is a fantastic GPP play tonight.
Top GPP Plays: Anthony Davis is the chalkiest high-tier option on the slate and where everyone will be paying up for. He makes for an intriguing fade in GPPs where he may not be 100% and the Nets queitly are not even ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the NBA in defensive rating against centers (shoutout Jarrett Allen).
- John Collins: People are scared to play John Collins because it is just his second year in the NBA, he is prone to foul trouble, and his price is elevated from what we’re used to. However, he is price appropriately for what he has shown he is capable on an NBA floor. He’s in his second year but he is playing HEAVY minutes for the Hawks, over 35 MPG. Collins has not fouled out of a game since last March. These are the things that are going to keep the ownership extremely down on one of the highest ceiling players at the position. Collins is consistently taking 13-15 shots a game while absolutely dominating the boards. Against a smaller Wizards team, I see no reason why John Collins won’t post a 20/15 game tonight. If he contributes in some other categories he’ll make for the PERFECT GPP pivot at the PF position.
- Jared Dudley (punt): I wanted to put Wendell Carter here, but I hate how Draftking’s pricing is making me look at so many players from the second lowest implied total on the slate. I guess that’s how their algorithm is supposed to work though so maybe that’s a good thing? Dudley is going to see 28-32 minutes tonight and is priced at 3.5k on Draftkings in a 230 total where his shooting is going to need to be there for the Nets to stay in this game. RHJ is out and Dudley will likely take over some extra minutes and shots as a result. If this game stays close, Dudley will be closing out the game as that’s how Atkinson runs his rotations with this team. You could do much worse in this PF tier if you’re looking to punt than sticking with Jared Dudley tonight.
Top GPP Plays:
- Andre Drummond: A weak game last night against the Bucks and a “difficult” matchup against Marc Gasol is going to scare people off Drummond and plummet his ownership to around 6-8% in GPPs. While this is a pace down game on a back to back, the price is what has me so intrigued in Drummond and the upside he is able to provide in GPPs. Drummond is on the cusp of dropping below 8k after being as high priced as 9.7k earlier this season. Drummond really hasn’t seen heavy minutes in his past three games which has damaged his fantasy scoring but in a game that is projected to stay fairly close we could see a massive rebounding game from Drummond that would ensure a big score from him. I’m not scared off by the matchup. This price is just too good.
- Ed Davis (PUNT): Jarrett Allen has been seeing less minutes lately, due to the fact that he is getting winded as he’s just 19 years old in his second NBA season. The vet Ed Davis has showed extreme reliability off the bench and will need to be playing big minutes tonight to keep up with Anthony Davis and Julius Randle, two bigs the Nets will likely struggle with. Ed Davis is projected under 20 minutes tonight in most projections I’ve looked at but is still grading out very well. Once I edited in my personal projections he sky rockets towards the top of the graded options at the center position. He is a fantastic punt in some deeper GPPs if you’re looking to pay up else where.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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