Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (1/1/18)
Happy New Year FAM!!! We have another 5-game slate tonight that should be pretty fun so let’s get into it. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Plays: Damian Lillard is my top play overall and I will have 100% exposure in my GPP lineups. He also will be one of the chalkier players on the slate. Chalk I think we should be eating tonight.
- Reggie Jackson: I’m on Reggie Jackson here in a game the Pistons are going to cover the +10 spread in a big game against the Bucks. Jackson has been a high floor/ceiling player for a while now but his ownership rarely eclipses 10% in most contests. Reggie is in form with his season averages where he is a close to 1.00 FP/min scorer. Now, with Bruce Brown in the starting lineup, we should see Jackson get a higher spike in usage tonight. At below 5k he is much cheaper than he should be given his role in this spot.
- TJ McConnell: McConnell makes sense as a play on both Draftkings and especially Fanduel where his steal upside plays a big part in his upside. At just 3.6k on Draftkings, I feel much more comfortable with McConnell then taking a punt on a guy like Bruce Brown who could legitimately end up with under 10 DK points.
Top GPP Plays:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic: Bogdan is my boy, especially after covering the over + Kings ML on an insane three-point buzzer last week. Bogdan brings the ELITE upside night in and night out and his price hasn’t hit over 6k yet so I’m going to keep riding this play until the price catches up. Bogdan has taken 16+ shots in 3 of his last 4 games and this seems to be working where the Kings grabbed 2/3 of those wins when Bogdan is shooting a lot. An even spread against a Blazers team that is weak against the SG position in a massive total, I think Bogdan drops his first 30 point night.
- CJ McCollum: On the other side, CJ McCollum makes for an elite leverage play off the chalky Damian Lillard. There is a case to be made that you can play both of these guys together but that will be an uncommon build tonight. However, a LOT of points are going to be scored and it will be crucial to hitting the nut plays in this game if you are looking to take down a GPP tonight.
Top GPP Plays:
- Jimmy Butler: Jimmy Butler’s price is actually insane. Besides the other night where Butler’s price was 6.7k this is the cheapest we’ve seen Jimmy Butler in over one year. His role is slightly changed on this team but is still on par with his season averages fantasy wise in addition to seeing heavy minutes and a respectable usage rate for the Sixers. I don’t care what his ownership is on this slate. I want him in close to all of my lineups.
- Reggie Bullock: I got onto Reggie Bullock after talking with some of the other NBA analysts at DFS Karma dot com (AP, Ben, Bales). AP was (jokingly) willing to bet even money that Reggie Bullock hits five three-pointers tonight! While he may not hit five, he has been taking a noticeable amount of three-pointers per game recently (two 10+ attempt games/three 8 attempt games – in his last eight games). If Bullock is able to post a quality shooting night from deep while contributing with some rebounds he could go for 8x at his current price on Draftkings.
Top GPP Plays:
- Pascal Siakam: If you haven’t been reading my articles all year by now let me just tell you about Pascal Siakam. The kid is an absolute studs and in my opinion the second best player on this Raptors team. People are going to be nervous about a big against the Jazz but over the course of the season, the Jazz net defensive rating against forwards is 30.3 (15th in NBA). This isn’t the same defensive team we saw from last year and we need to keep capitalizing on this price for Siakam. He’s wayyyy too cheap.
- Justin Jackson (punt): I don’t mind taking a shot on Justin Jackson at this price in what’s going to be a very high scoring game. Jackosn has been playing mid-20s minutes for the Kings and offers some low-owned upside at 3.2k. I don’t “love” the play but I like getting this type of leverage at the PF position historically.
Top GPP Plays:
- Jusuf Nurkic: I was really contemplating including Leonard/Collins in my article as I think we need to attack this Kings front court tonight so I’ll just go right to the center position. (Note: Maurice Harkless is #chalk and should be in your lineups tonight.) Nurkic’s price is up there at 7.5k but this matchup is just too juicy for the type of upside Nurkic brings, even if he doesn’t top 30 minutes tonight (which I believe he will). The Kings are bottom five in the NBA in defensive rating against centers (22.0) and even worse over their past 7 games (23.0 – 26th in NBA).
- Blake Griffin: Again I’m with the Karma team on some of these Pistons today as I think this game will not even hit the over but the Pistons will cover. Blake Griffin is one of the highest usage players on this slate and we know we will get major contributions with rebounds/steals/blocks. Griffin’s price is way down from what we were seeing earlier in the season and nothing has changed about Griffin’s role in this offense. He’s a fantastic play tonight.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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