This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.
By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.
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| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| B. Beal | J. Randle | H. Whiteside | Hawks/Cavs |
| D. Lillard | D. Sabonis | A. Baynes | Wizards/Knicks |
| I. Smith | J. Butler | G. Dieng | Spurs/Grizzlies |
| D. Russell | M. Bagley | N. Vucevic | Blazers/Pelicans |
| D. Fox | R. Covington | A. Drummond | Jazz/Heat |
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Thoughts:
Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.
- One of the first things I did today was narrow down my player pool. The forward position today is extremely weak compared to the G/center position so if any major chalk emerges, don’t feel too pressured to play them as of right now no one is popping at the position and the opportunity cost is larger than if you were to use that salary on an elite player at another position.
- The two players I am prioritizing in builds today are at the guard position – Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal. This combo works really nicely as the two players fill opposite positions (PG/SG), so very easy to fit in your lineups without sacrificing the crucial G position.
- These two project as the two best plays of the slate by a fairly big margin, especially in comparison to our options at forward. It’s worth to pay for your gurads today.
- When analyzing the center position you are faced with some decisions. We’re seeing elite plays in Hassan Whiteside, Aaron Baynes, and Gorgui Dieng. My approach here will be to lean on the less expensive pair of Baynes/Dieng in order to capture the upside at the G/UTIL position. It’s possible to throw whichever player you don’t use into your UTIL as well as that historically decreases the ownership of your lineup while at the same time restricting your possible builds.
- When filling out the forward position I am switching around with either Buddy Hield or Marvin Bagley. I think these are the two guys that determine the overall success of my builds if I can get the right one. I am leaning Bagley due to the sub-6k price tag allowing more flexibility when filling out the rest of my roster.
- A key thing to remember is when game stacking your goal is to capture overtime minutes. In order for a game to overtime it would mean that the underdog OVERPERFORMS. Meaning you want more salary allocation, in most cases, from the team that is NOT favored rather than the team that is favored.
- A good example of this tonight is the Wizards vs the Knicks
- The game has a total near the top of the board tonight and has multiple pieces that are priced well enough to make them quality plays without having to eat obvious chalk.
- On the Wizards side we’re going to see a ton of ownership on Smith, Beal, and maybe even Brown… but on the Knicks side of the ball Payton, Barrett, and Randle are all in play at a 1/3 of the ownership.
- A good example of this tonight is the Wizards vs the Knicks
- Remember.. when differentiating from a leverage perspective it gives you more expected value when pivoting off of the expensive players. A good spot to fade tonight is Jonathan Isaac, who projects well, but not nearly enough for the 20%+ ownership we’re seeing early on in a slow/low-total game with the Bulls.
- Obviously it is important to stay up to date on what value opens up closer to lock and weigh extreme value decisions (due to rest/injury).
If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
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DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings and we are also avid fans and users and may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and we may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
