Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 12/4/19

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards	Forwards	Centers	Game Stacks
D. Mitchell	A. Davis	A. Drummond	Mavs/Wolves
L. Doncic	Giannis	J. Allen	Nets/Hawks
J. Butler	K. Porzingis	B. Adebayo	Grizzlies/Bulls
K. Middleton	T. Prince	W. Carter Jr	Pistons/Bucks
S. Dinwiddie	J. Parker	K. Towns	Heat/Celtics

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.

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Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

• Based on positional value today, it seems like the +EV strategy to fit more forward eligible players into your lineup, whether that be at the SF/PF/F/UTIL position.  There are many more positive value players at the position today which will allow you to get lower ownership on equivalent (or better) plays then compared at the guard position.
• Roster construction for me when filling out my G positions will include Luka at PG (he’s the top value on the slate and close to a must-play the way he is playing) and Donovan Mitchell at SG.
  • Mitchell represents the second-best value on the slate (behind Luka) and allows you to cross those guard positions off the list that I believe are filled with -EV plays today.
• Thinking about how people are reactive in DFS, we have to imagine that Porzingis is going to see lower ownership that he should tonight if DFS was an efficient market.  Pairing Luka+Porzingis is a build that correlates and is going to be the key to someone winning a GPP soon with how cheap Porzingis is.
  • To further correlation in this combination look for a player from the Timberwolves to come back with.
    • The only players I’d consider are Andrew Wiggins and KAT.
• There are a lot of fantastic mid-high tier plays today without so much clear value YET.  As always make sure you are staying up to date on the news so you can include the obvious value plays into your builds as lineup lock approached.
• However, we need to plug in some cheaper players somewhere… these are the value plays I’m rotating around my higher-tier builds tonight.
  • • • • Tomas Santoransky
        • Kriss Dunn 
          • Remember that playing Tomas + Kriss does not correlate.  Max 1 per lineup.
        • Cam Reddish – I’ll be overexposed due to his price allowing so much flexibility.  Hopefully, he doesn’t come in too high owned.
        • Emmanuel Mudiay – Bargain bin pivot off Reddish.
        • Evan Turner
        • Joe Harris
        • Jae Crowder
        • Aaron Gordon
        • Lauri Markkanen
• Obviously it is important to stay up to date on what value opens up closer to lock and weigh extreme value decisions (due to rest/injury).
• Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).

 

If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.

• Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

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