This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.
By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.
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| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| D. Smith Jr | Giannis ABC | J. Embiid | Suns/Hornets |
| T. Young | E. Paschall | D. Sabonis | Warriors/Hawks |
| K. Bowman | J. Parker | A. Horford | Knicks/Bucks |
| M. Brogdon | T. Harris | J. Valanciunus | Bulls/Kings |
| B. Hield | G. Robinson | B. Caboclo | Pacers/Grizzlies |
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Thoughts:
Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.
- Value is plentiful for a messy 6-game slate. Dennis Smith Jr/Kyle Bowman present the best values on the slate where Dennis Smith Jr., in particular, should be very popular but has a very realistic path to 10x. He’s someone I am prioritizing in all builds as I think you’ll need him to win tonight and a fade doesn’t really make any sense.
- Giannis is going to be extremely popular tonight as it is very easy to fit him into your lineup. If this game stays any what close, Giannis will smash and from a raw point perspective on a small slate – you’ll likely need him. However, I can see the case being made for paying up in the mid-high tier on guys like Simmons/Embiid/Valanciunus/Hield to get a bit contrarian in a world where Giannis only plays 25 minutes due to a blowout like we saw the other night.
- This is a decision you’d have to make when considering what type of build you’re going for (more risky vs less risky).
- The spread on this game is 17 points so it does make sense.
- To identify the clear values for you guys on this slate, I listed them below:
-
- Dennis Smith Jr. – clear value with no reason to fade. Lock button.
- Ky Bowman – I could see him going slightly under-owned in large-field GPPs due to the lack of being a brand “name”
- Eric Paschall – The Warriors value plays will win the slate. It’s tough to get them right but Bowman/Paschall/Robinson are the only three I’m touching.
- Glenn Robinson
- Aaron Baynes
- Bruno Caboclo – You can basically play anyone if you plug DSJ and Bruno together.
- Miles Bridges
- DeAndre Hunter – Immense upside. One of my favorite GPP values of the slate. High bust potential so not for the weak-stomached.
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- I don’t think there is any warrant to fade DSJ tonight but I am going to be contrarian by mixing in the other mid-high tier options on the slate that project for positive values and pivoting off the Trae Young/Giannis chalk builds.
- Obviously it is important to stay up to date on what value opens up closer to lock and weigh extreme value decisions (due to rest/injury).
- Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible. More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments. (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
- If the Knicks/Bucks game doesn’t blowout it could be the nuts game stack.
If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
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