This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.
By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.
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| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| R. Westbrook | Giannis | A. Drummond | Wizards/Pistons |
| J. Butler | K. Porzingis | B. Adebayo | Mavericks/Bucks |
| J. Brunson | M. Morris | C. Capela | Spurs/Rockets |
| K. Lowry | D. Gallinari | H. Whiteside | Blazers/Suns |
| L. Kennard | P. Siakam | S. Ibaka | Bulls/Thunder |
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Thoughts:
Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.
- Starting off the week with a 7-game slate that I don’t really love due to the massive chalk as a result of some injuries/rest days with Doncic/Pistons.
- The clear top play on the slate is Andre Drummond. He is as close to a lock as a player could be and is projecting as the top play of the slate by FAR. Add in the fact that there is an extremely limited number of options at the center position that are positive values today and it becomes clear that you should try your best to be over-exposed to Drummond. Right now his projected ownership is around 35%…. I’d be trying to get around 80% exposure if building an MME set tonight or playing multiple lineups.
- A key thing to remember is when game stacking your goal is to capture overtime minutes. In order for a game to overtime it would mean that the underdog OVERPERFORMS. Meaning you want more salary allocation, in most cases, from the team that is NOT favored rather than the team that is favored.
- A good example of this tonight is the Bucks vs the Mavericks
- The game has a total in the bottom half of the slate but that ranking is irrelevant how close all the top games on the slate are. It’ll be interesting to see how this team reacts to the loss of Doncic but there are obviously going to be key pieces here that you’ll need in your lineup tonight making this game likely where the slate is “won”. The Bucks are favored by 11 points, but if you are going for a game-stack approach… do your best to be over-exposed to the Mavericks side of the ball.
- The Jalen Brunson and Kristapas Porzingis plays are ELITE and will be found throughout my lineups tonight.
- The game has a total in the bottom half of the slate but that ranking is irrelevant how close all the top games on the slate are. It’ll be interesting to see how this team reacts to the loss of Doncic but there are obviously going to be key pieces here that you’ll need in your lineup tonight making this game likely where the slate is “won”. The Bucks are favored by 11 points, but if you are going for a game-stack approach… do your best to be over-exposed to the Mavericks side of the ball.
- A good example of this tonight is the Bucks vs the Mavericks
- Remember.. when differentiating from a leverage perspective it gives you more expected value when pivoting off of the expensive players. A good spot to fade tonight is Russell Westbrook, who projects well, but makes sense for a fade to plug in a guy like Jimmy Butler who is projected for 1/3 of the ownership.
- Obviously it is important to stay up to date on what value opens up closer to lock and weigh extreme value decisions (due to rest/injury).
- Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible. More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments. (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
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