This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.
By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.
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| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| D. Mitchell | Giannis ABC | K. Towns | Utah/Wolves |
| J. Harden | L. James | R. Gobert | Grizzlies/Suns |
| K. Lowry | P. Siakam | D. Sabonis | Pelicans/Bucks |
| S. Dinwiddie | W. Carter Jr. | M. Bagley | Hawks/Bulls |
| B. Bogdanovic | B. Ingram | K. Love | Lakers/Magic |
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Thoughts:
Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.
- We have a huge 11-game Wednesday slate on our hands tonight so it will be important to stay up to date with late news as there may end up being quite a few things to monitor as we approach lock.
- By analyzing the values of the guards vs forwards vs centers tonight it is clear the approach I’m going to use when looking to leverage my player pool. There seems to be deep value at the guard position with a lack of value at center and a tighter pool of options at the forward position.
- So what does this mean when it comes to a game theory perspective? Well obviously we want to be making +EV plays. If making multiple lineups tonight the first thing I am going to be doing is constricting my player pool when it comes to the forward and center position. By doing this we’re already constricting our possible lineup combinations in a positive way as we’re looking to differentiate and GAIN OUR LEVERAGE at the guard position today.
- At forward I am only considering (barring late injury news):
- Giannis – I’ll be very exposed considering how he’s grading out on this slate. At 11k he is as close to a must play as an elite player can be on an 11-game slate.
- Lebron James- pivot off of Giannis. We’re seeing about a 5-7 point distribution in terms of projections.
- Pascal Siakam
- Draymond Green
- Bogdan Bogdanovic
- Brandon Ingram
- Wendell Carter
- Joe Ingles
- Jabari Parker
- Khris Middleton
- Marvin Bagley
- You won’t see ANY other players at my SF,PF, or F position tonight. If running multiple lineups this becomes a very tight core.
- When game stacking remember that your goal is to capture overtime minutes. In order for a game to overtime it would mean that the underdog OVERPERFORMS. Meaning you want more salary allocation, in most cases, from the team that is NOT favored rather than the team that is favored.
- A good example of this tonight is the Rockets vs the Cavs
- The game has a huge 229 point total but the Rockets are favored by 11 points. In order for this game to hit that GPP .1% outcome, this game needs to go to overtime. In order for that to happen, multiple players from the Cavs would need to overperform and in turn crush their DFS price tag. Implement this sort of game theory approach when stacking in NBA DFS.
- A good example of this tonight is the Rockets vs the Cavs
- Obviously it is important to stay up to date on what value opens up closer to lock and weigh extreme value decisions (due to rest/injury).
- Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible. More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments. (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
- If the Knicks/Bucks game doesn’t blowout it could be the nuts game stack.
If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
- Twitter: @DF_Advantage
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