Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/25/19 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 11/25/19

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
T. Young Giannis ABC H. Whiteside Wolves/Hawks
M. Brogdon G. Tatum K. Towns Blazers/Bulls
J. Butler B. Griffin J. Embiid Jazz/Bucks
S. Dinwiddie A. Davis K. Cauley-Stein Nets/Cavs
E. Bledsoe K. Love K. Olynyk Magic/Pistons

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


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Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Right off the bat, we can identify the ELITE plays of this slate.  Trae Young, Giannis, and Hassan Whiteside all project clearly above the rest of the field in terms of PT/$ value and should be the staple of most optimals tonight.
    • From a game theory/leverage perspective – when identifying which one of these popular options you want to be overexposed to in GPPs I filtered to 90th percentile projections and see that Trae Young is the player that poses the highest PT/$ score when hitting his 90th percentile outcome.  He’s who I’m going to be the most overexposed to compared to the field in GPPs when identifying my exposures to these three popular options.
  • If you’re plugging two of these three players or even all three, you’re likely going to need some quality value options to plug.  Based off the fact that these three guys will likely be among the most popular on the slate, we want to look for some high-upside/lower-owned players.  Again, filtering to the 90th percentile outcomes for players – I’m looking for guys under 5k at reasonable/low ownership projections to include in the list below.  Using these players, mixed with the table/analysis above, you should be able to construct positive EV GPP lineups.
    • Brad Wanamaker
    • Goran Dragic
    • Omari Spellman
    • Kelly Olynyk
    • TJ Warren
    • Willie Cauley-Stein
    • Carmelo Anthony
    • Terrance Ross
    • Cam Reddish
    • Tyler Herro
    • DeAndre Jordan
    • Malik Monk
  • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

 

 

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