Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 10/28/19 - DFS Karma
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Bobby’s NBA Game Theory – 10/28/19

Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
J. Harden Giannis A. A. Drummond Warriors/Pelicans
L. Ball M. Harrell J. Embiid Blazers/Spurs
D. Russell J. Randle R. Gobert Thunder/Rockets
B. Simmons K. Williams M. Turner Sixers/Hawks
G. Hill D. DeRozan C. Capela Cavs/Bucks

 

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.

 

Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • The first piece of “good chalk” I’m identifying tonight is Andre Drummond who will be an absolute staple across my core plays.  Drummond is in a contract year and is playing better than he ever has before, showing major improvement over years past with a major role in the offense that is missing Blake Griffin.  At 9.3k, he’s still underpriced and should be heavily owned in your lineups tonight.
  • While the slate could shape up to be a stars/studs night in cash games (Giannis/Harden/Drummond all projected over 25% ownership), the contrarian approach on this slate should be to find the mid-high tier values that have opportunities for ceiling games.
    • I see that tonight with Lonzo Ball who is just 6.3k and projects as the third-highest PT/$ value at the PG position despite ownership projections in the single digits.
    • I’m taking a similar position at SG tonight where Buddy Hield really sticks out to me as a player that is just underpriced.  The usage he’s going to see on this team this season is close to elite and hovers in that range with Bagley hurt for the next 4-6 weeks.  Hield at 6k is a misprice, yet ownership projections have Hield in single digits.
  • The key will to zig where others zag.  While Andre Drummond is a staple of my cores tonight, I’ll be looking to differ to other 6-9k range players at the PG/SG/SF/PF position, where the uber chalky Giannis, Harden, Westbrook play.  On an 11 game slate, I am not going to be gravitating to 25%+ owned players and will be looking to find value elsewhere.
    • Make no mistake, however – Giannis/Westbrook/Harden are great plays tonight that project well.  You can still play them tonight – I’m just giving my approach to tackling this slate in GPPs.
  • Next, I am going to be focused on exposing myself to high total games with tight spreads when stacking in GPPs.
    • One of the most underrated parts of NBA DFS is game stacking.  The amount of times game stacks are utilized compared to the number of overtimes we see in the NBA is extremely underutilized.
    • When playing the 50,000 person GPP’s, you should be picking a game that you think will be competitive with a chance to go to overtime.  We gain a ton of additional value when a game goes to overtime and we have the relevant DFS plays from that game stacked up.
    • Make sure to focus on the games I listed in the table above when looking to stack a game tonight in GPP.

 

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  • Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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