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Last night the article’s main plays struggled, going 1/3, but the bonus plays did pretty well going 3/4. Keep mixing and matching the main plays with the bonus plays and you will be cashing most nights. The favorite play of the day yesterday, (Luka 1h over 24.5 PRA), finished short by 2 which really hurt us. Bullock just had a very off night shooting 0/7 from deep, not much we can do about that. Wiggins and the bonus plays managed to kill it though, and tonight I have some plays that I expect to do the same.
Jayson Tatum OVER 37.5 PRA
Tatum has gone over this number in 4 of the last 5 games, and he is averaging 39.2 PRA during that span. I like taking stars over PRA in the playoffs because they have the upside to drop 30+ points alone and the rest covers easily. The Celtics are currently down 1-2 and this is a big game for them to try to even things up. I expect Tatum, who is coming off an abysmal performance, to step it up tonight and bounce back.
The books have Tatum at 38.5 and even one site has him listed at 41.5 PRA with slight odds on the under. Underdog fantasy has Tatum at 39.5 PRA, so as you can see there are big margins in our favor for this over with PrizePicks having him as low as 37.5. Let’s see what JT can do for us tonight…
Confidence Meter (1-10): 8.5
Kyle Lowry OVER 5 Assists
This play was at 4.5 earlier which was an easy lock for me however now he has been bumped to 5 and I still like it. Lowry will be seeing around 30 minutes again and he will be the starting point guard. I expect him to continue to facilitate as he did last game finishing with 6 assists. There will also be no Herro which may give him slightly more minutes. I have him finishing with 6-7 assists this game.
The books have Lowry listed at 5.5 assists with -125 odds on the under. That means there is a good chance he pushes but he still has upside to go over. Other sites have him listed at 5.5 while PrizePicks only has him at 5. Consider this a safe play that may push, but I like his upside to cash this for us.
Confidence Meter (1-10): 7
Victor Oladipo OVER 18 Fantasy Points
Oladipo has only been over this number in 2 of the last 5 games, but now Herro is out and he should see an increase in minutes. Even last game, with Herro on the floor, only getting 20 minutes, and with a terrible shooting performance finishing with just 6 PRA, his fantasy score still managed to covered finishing with 18.5 due to his 4 steals. He has a massive defensive upside for steals and blocks and is going to hustle hard to prove he is worthy of more minutes.
Confidence Meter (1-10): 7
Bonus plays:
Kyle Lowry OVER 3 Rebounds
Jimmy Butler OVER 35.5 PRA
Max Strus OVER 22 Fantasy
Bam Adebayo OVER 1.5 TO
