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Due to the completely unexpected blowout, Giannis and Tatum both came short of their point prop projections and finished under. They were both on a good pace at halftime to go over their projection, but once the game got out of hand all hope was lost. While the main picks let us down, the two bonus plays both hit, going 2/2 and 2/4 on the day. For the first games of the conference finals, I have cooked up some plays to set us up for success, keep reading if you want to cash tonight!
Tip: Since the Bonus plays have been doing pretty well I recommend pairing the two main plays with the bonus plays in a big 4-5 man flex, in addition to power playing the two main plays on their own. Good luck!
Bam Adebayo OVER 2.5 Assists
Bam has been averaging 5.5 potential assists in the playoffs so far and has gone over this number in all 3 of his previous games against the Celtics this year, one of which he finished with 8. I liked this play even before checking out the SPF predictor on BetKarma.com, which you can gain access to here: http://www.betkarma.com/?afmc=1y, which has Bam’s assists projection at 3.5 giving the play a 40% difference leaning on the over. With my intuition, Bam’s history vs the Celtics, and the SPF predictor all liking this play, I have officially confirmed it as my favorite play of the day.
The books have Bam listed at -159 odds leaning on the over here, with one site even listing him at 3.5 assists. Let’s see if Bam can revive our main play streak by cashing his assists prop tonight, I think he will!
Confidence Meter (1-10): 8
Al Horford OVER 8.5 Rebounds
Horford has been averaging 10.4 rebounds in his past 5 games. He has gone over this number in 3 of his last 5 games and in his past 2 games facing the Heat he has finished with 15, and 9 rebounds. Robert Williams will most likely be back in the rotation but I still think Horford gets 30+ minutes. If he can get that kind of playing time (which he has been) then he should have no problem clearing this over. Using the SPF tool, Horford is projected for 9.5 rebounds making there a 12% difference for the play on the over.
The books have Horford listed at -130 on the over here and some sites are even listing him at 9.5 rebounds. I am feeling good about this play as long as the game stays close and he gets his minutes, he should cash this for us.
Confidence Meter (1-10): 7.5
Luka Doncic OVER 9.5 Rebounds
Luka has been on a tear as of late and has gotten over this number in 4 of his last 5 games. In the past two Mavericks vs Warriors games, Luka has finished with 11, and 10 boards. I expect this game to stay close enough for Luka to play 35+ minutes. It should be a pretty fast paced and high scoring game creating lots of opportunity for Luka to get those 10 rebounds. Game 1 sets the tone for the series so I expect for Luka to be in the game as much as possible to clear this number.
The books have Luka at -130 on the over of 9.5 boards to backup this play.
Confidence Meter (1-10): 7.5
Bonus Plays:
Tatum UNDER 3.5 3pts
Wiggins OVER 15.5 Points
Max Strus OVER 17.5 Pra
Written by Biggie
