The Locks
Royce O’Neal- Oh man, what a way to start a Friday slate! With news that Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Raul Neto are all set to miss tonight’s game, that will push tons of ownership onto the near free Royce O’Neal who will take over some ball-handling for the Utah Jazz. We have seen this exact situation a few times this season, and while we know that the ceiling isn’t crazy high. at his price he makes for a strong cash game consideration. The biggest overall beneficiary in my opinion, is Donovan Mitchell, who I love in all formats as well with people focusing on shoving in Royce for the savings.
Elfrid Payton- Payton is another player we can expect to garner some pretty high ownership tonight, he is still under-priced after returning from injury and we know that Jrue Holiday will miss tonight’s game for the Pelicans. He has been really good overall as of late, and he boasts well over a fantasy point per minute with Holiday off the floor this season.
James Harden- I really don’t think this will end up a super-chalky play, and that’s okay because the less people that are on him the better for us, similar to Luka the other night against Washington. Many people follow the rule of “Never spend up for Harden when CP3 is active” which, believe me, I understand. That being said, Harden is no longer priced like he was when CP3 was out, he is down to $11,000 on DraftKings and $12,000 on FanDuel which puts him right in line with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Giannis Antetokounmpo. If we dig in, we see that Harden sports a 39% usage rate for the season, but over the last eight games it jumps to over 42%…those are games with CP3 ACTIVE! He is taking over, and if you watch the 6ers/Bulls game the other night you will see that Philly had no answers whatsoever for Zach LaVine. He was getting whatever he wanted, and I expect a similar scenario with Harden tonight.
Kemba Walker- In addition to Harden, I love spending up for Kemba Walker tonight at home in a fantastic matchup with the Washington Wizards. Walker has seen a stable minutes floor of 36 minutes since the All-Star break as the Hornets push for a better playoff position, and if you read my content you know that I LOVE attacking this Wizards team with ball-handlers…cough cough…Luka Doncic. They rank bottom-five in defensive efficiency against point guards this season, and their defense has been even worse post-ASB.
Secondary Options
Serge Ibaka- Ibaka remains under-priced across the industry should he start again tonight for the Raptors. His minutes and fantasy production are much more secure when starting, and that held true in their last game when Ibaka posted 44 fantasy points in 30 minutes against the Rockets. This is basically a wait and see play — if he starts I like him in all formats, if he is coming off the bench I will not have any exposure.
Lou Williams- I’m assuming we are going to be a tad on the contrarian side locking in Harden tonight over the likes of Westbrook/George in a 237.5 O/U, despite them coming off an OT game last night, so I would like to get some exposure to this game and that can come with Lou Williams. We know that we need the game to be close given Williams sixth man role on this team, and that if it’s a blowout he’s unlikely to see his 4Q rotation. That shouldn’t be a worry as this game owns just a 2.5 point spread right now, and this type of pace feels like what Williams game is built for.
Clint Capela- Everyone that reads me knows I put almost zero weight into projected blowouts for NBA games, though I will say I will feel a lot better about this should Ben Simmons end up playing — he is currently listed as questionable. Since Joel Embiid went down with an injury, the 76ers rank bottom-five in the NBA in opponent points allowed in the paint. This bodes well for Capela, who averages 12.8 paint touch points per game, the most in the NBA this season, to go along with a 63.5% FG%. This is a great set-up for Capela, and I love stacking him with Harden tonight.
Cheap Value- We obviously would love some more value outside of Royce O’Neal, and I believe you can find that in both Frank Kaminsky and Frank Jackson tonight. More could open up depending on the Ben Simmons news — so be sure to check my final thoughts cheat sheet before lock!
GPP Plays
Donovan Mitchell- As I said above, I love Mitchell tonight in all formats especially since most people will be locking in Royce first, not focusing on Mitchell. He sees over 1.2 fantasy points per minute without Rubio on the court this season and should be in for a steady workload with this matchup with the Grizzlies owning just a 4.5 point spread.
Julius Randle- This is another player I expect to go a bit over-looked tonight, especially in a tough matchup with the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors have been great at limiting opponent power forwards this season, but we need to factor in that Randle climbs to almost 1.4 fantasy points per minute with Jrue Holiday off the floor, and has been routinely seeing 36+ minutes with Anthony Davis being limited to around 20 per game. This is an example of someone I would like to be overweight on compared to the field even factoring in a below-average matchup…especially on DraftKings where he is priced at only $8,200.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
