Point Guard
Top Tier: Kemba Walker- Despite being on a back-to-back, the Hornets find themselves at home in the premier game of the night, a 235 O/U game against the Bucks. Walker still owns a 30+% usage and assist rate, and the if the Hornets stay in this game it’s on his back, he’s my top overall point guard tonight.
Mid Tier: Kyrie Irving- If you aren’t targeting the Hornets/Bucks game, odds are you will be heavily focused on the Celtics/Pelicans coming in at 227.5. This is a huge pace-up spot for the Celtics, and Irving’s style of play has perennially thrived in fast-paced atmospheres. Irving gets a bump given that Jaylen Brown will miss this game, and he has been more aggressive with the ball as of late scoring 19+ real points in five of his last six games, including a 43 point performance against Toronto.
Low Tier: Ricky Rubio- With Donovan Mitchell ruled out for tonight, the entire Jazz team gets a solid bump up especially Ricky Rubio. His usage rate jumps without Mitchell on the floor, but the most noteworthy is that his assist rate jumps up to almost 48%. Rubio is too cheap for the type of production he can post with Mitchell.
Shooting Guard
Top Tier: Jrue Holiday- I feel like I could literally just copy and paste what I write about Jrue Holiday every single day, but here we are. With Elfrid Payton out, Holiday continues to dominate the ball for the Pelicans and his price is still in the easily affordable range. He has too high of a floor/ceiling combo even against Boston for me not to consider him the top overall shooting guard play tonight.
Mid Tier: DeMar Derozan/Zach LaVine- Both guards squaring off in the Chicago/San Antonio game come in as my next favorite targets, Derozan being better on FanDuel and LaVine being better on DraftKings. Derozan is only $300 more than LaVine on FanDuel making him the stronger play given his much higher floor, but at $900 less on DraftKings I’ll side with LaVine’s scoring and usage.
Low Tier: Marcus Smart- Ugh, I really don’t want to do this, but sometimes in NBA DFS we have to make plays we don’t really like given the value or position players get thrust into nightly. As I mentioned above, with Brown out massive ownership will be pushed onto Marcus Smart and the pace-up spot is enough for me to just eat the chalk and jam him in.
Small Forward
Top Tier: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Kevin Durant- I really don’t think you can go wrong with either of these guys, but it definitely is becoming one of the questions of the slate if any more value opens up. You’re going to need to spend more for Giannis, but getting him in the massive 235 O/U with no rim protection on the Hornets is pretty tantalizing. Ultimately, it’s tough to not make the case for Durant with Curry/Green still out and he is the better point-per-dollar play, but if I have the money I’m certainly going to try to get up to Antetokounmpo tonight as a cash game anchor.
Mid Tier: Rudy Gay- I love Rudy Gay at his price point tonight, especially in a matchup with the egregious Chicago Bulls defense. The Bulls rank bottom-five in the NBA in defensive efficiency to opposing SF’s this season, and Gay has steadily logged a 21+% usage rate this season. With no Mitchell, you can also make the case for Joe Ingles or Jae Crowder in this tier but if choosing one it’s Gay for me.
Low Tier: James Ennis (FanDuel)- Ennis makes sense as a low score drop punt on FanDuel coming in at $3,700. He doesn’t have high usage, but this Wizards/Rockets game is one of the best environments on the slate and Ennis should be locked into 27+ minutes. At his price, he allows you to spend up for an extra stud and you are protected by the low score drop if needed.
Power Forward
Top Tier: Anthony Davis- With Davis banged up, and the likes of Giannis/Durant also strong spend-ups on the slate, Davis falls more into the GPP category for me but he is an amazing leverage play. We have a bit of a narrative with Davis being linked to the Celtics in trade rumors for years, and he is at home where the Pelicans have a notoriously beneficial score keepers. He’s logged monster minutes this season, and he can easily go for 80+ fantasy points at relatively low ownership on Monday night.
Mid Tier: LaMarcus Aldridge- Aldridge is my favorite overall power forward tonight when factoring in price and matchup, and the Spurs didn’t play yesterday adding to my confidence in him. He and Derozan have been the Spurs offense this season, and he is still due for positive shooting regression, something I’ve been waiting for for three or so weeks. When he catches a night that his shot is falling he can really go for a huge game, and let’s hope that is tonight against this Bulls frontcourt.
Low Tier: Jonas Jerebko- This is another FanDuel special, as Jerebko would make sense as a punt option where it won’t kill you if he ends up being your low score drop at the end of the night. He’s been surprisingly good scoring the ball thus far and his minutes should remain secure tonight with Draymond Green expected to miss once again.
Center
Top Tier: Rudy Gobert- Center is LOADED once again tonight, and you can easily put the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns and Clint Capela here, but my go-to guy all day has been Rudy Gobert. Gobert has massive upside at his price in a great matchup with the Indiana Pacers and he comes in at just $8,100 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings! He has double-doubled every time in this matchup with the Pacers over the last two years and with his block upside, he can destroy this price.
Mid Tier: Tristan Thompson- I can’t believe I’m as interested in Tristan Thompson as I am today, but welcome to the world of NBA DFS. Thompson has been rebounding like a mad man posting 15, 13 and 20 in his last three games playing 29, 35 and 29 minutes in those contests. Minnesota’s defense has ratcheted up since Butler left town, but TT still has an extremely good individual matchup with Karl-Anthony Towns.
Low Tier: Thomas Bryant (FanDuel)- If you are looking to punt center on FanDuel as your low score, look no further than Thomas Bryant. Cody Zeller is the obvious play, but Bryant is stone minimum and has played 15+ minutes over the last three games. This probably is not a cash play given how string center is tonight, but it would allow you to potentially jam in two or three elite SG/SF/PG options.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
