Top Tier: Russell Westbrook- Westbrook actually has a tough matchup, as the Timberwolves have graded out as one of the top defensive units against point guards this season, but this is Russ we are talking about and we should have money to spend with Devin Booker unlikely to play tonight. Westy has the exact floor we want in cash games, and the Timberwolves were reportedly expected to focus on playing at a faster pace with Thibs fired on Sunday.
Mid Tier: Kemba Walker- Kemba is probably my favorite overall point guard tonight, I just wish that this game was at home in Charlotte. This is arguably the best game of the night with a 231 O/U and a 6.5 point spread and the Clippers are bottom-seven in defensive efficiency against point guards this season. They also play at a top ten pace, so we should see some extra offensive possessions tonight from the Hornets.
Low Tier: FanDuel Punt- I don’t see a ton sticking out here for value right now, so I will ultimately update my thinking on my Final Thoughts chart before lock. It appears though, that this could be a viable spot to attempt to get your low score drop on FanDuel, and Cory Joseph sticks out as a n option should he end up playing in this game.
Top Tier: Bradley Beal (DraftKings)- Beal is a tough sell for me on FanDuel at almost $10,000, but on DraftKings at $8,900 he definitely cracks the cash game range. Beal has topped 40+ fantasy point in five straight games, and his peripherals have been much better without John Wall in the lineup. This game features a solid 228 O/U, and if the Wizards are going to stay in the game it’s going to come on the back of Beal.
Mid Tier: Andrew Wiggins- Wiggins is not someone I typically roster, but he has been really good with Covington out and Butler out of Minnesota. I expect the Wolves to focus heavily on offense tonight with Thibs no longer on the sideline, and Wiggins has scored 16+ real points in four straight games.
Low Tier: Bogdan Bogdanovic- Bogdanovic has seen a recent price increase, but he’s still below $6,000 on DraftKings he still presents solid value in a matchup with the Phoenix Suns. Bogdanovic has arguable the top matchup on the board against a terrible defensive backcourt, and he has put up double-digit shot attempts in five straight, with a slew of 14+ FGA games.
Top Tier: Paul George (FanDuel)- I love this spot for PG, and even though he is only $10,000 he checks the box as my favorite spend up on this slate. I expect the Timberwolves to play at an even faster pace with Thibs fired, and they come in as a bottom-three team in defensive efficiency against small forwards this season. Add in that their best perimeter defender, Rob Covington, is out for tonight’s game, and I don’t think this matchup could get any better for PG.
Mid Tier: TJ Warren- Warren would get a significant bump if Devin Booker and his 31% usage rate miss tonight’s game, but I think he is solid cash game option regardless of whether or not Booker plays. Warren routinely sees 30+ minutes of action, and he owns a usage rate just over 25% even with Booker on the floor.
Low Tier: Otto Porter- Porter sticks out as the top overall value play to me today, as he should continue to come off the bench for the Wizards. In his last game off the bench, he posted a 30+% usage rate and he should shed the minutes limit tonight. That type of usage is not something we are accustomed to seeing from Porter, especially when he is as cheap as he is on both sites tonight.
Top Tier: Tobias Harris- I feel like nobody ever plays Tobias Harris, but his floor has basically been 28 over the last ten games and he remains one of the most consistent producers in DFS NBA. His ceiling isn’t huge, but 40+ is not out of the question and as I pointed out with Kemba, this is actually probably my game of the night.
Mid Tier: Draymond Green- If you can’t quite get up to Toby on FanDuel, Draymond Green makes a ton of sense at $7,100. He’s been much more consistent as of late, and I’ve talked a ton about how bad the Knicks defense has been over the last two months. They are on a back-to-back, so the blowout concern is real, but he should be able to do enough damage to pay off this price tag regardless of the score.
Low Tier: Josh Jackson- I just got the update that Devin Booker missed shootaround today, which puts him closer to doubtful than playing tonight. Jackson would move into the starting lineup for Booker, and he has a great matchup as the Kings rank bottom-ten against opposing forwards this season. They also are on the tail-end of a back-to-back, which could boost the the upside even more at a depressed price tag.
Top Tier: Joel Embiid- We are shaping up to have some strong value on this slate, so I do think we will have the ability to get one of Russell Westbrook/Joel Embiid in with Paul George on FanDuel. The matchup is fantastic against the Wizards, they have no one with the size to keep Embiid off the floor, but we do get a slight bump down with his usage falling given that Jimmy Butler should be back in action for tonight’s game
Mid Tier: DeAndre Ayton- Ayton had a massive let-down game against the Clippers two games ago, but it’s important to remember that he is a rookie and that down games are going to happen. The Kings have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA against centers this season, surrendering an 80+ point fantasy game to Jusuf Nurkic last week, and allowing well over a fantasy point per minute to Nikola Vucevic last night. Ayton’s usage had actually increased with Booker back, but he should be able to shoulder more of the scoring load if he misses tonight and Ayton is the top point-per-dollar play at center.
Low Tier: Hassan Whiteside (DraftKings)/Guillermo Hernangomez- Value is interesting at center tonight, with Whiteside coming in under $7,000 on DraftKings at home in a matchup with the Denver Nuggets. The Heat will need his size against Nikola Jokic, and Whiteside has some of the strongest home/road splits in the NBA. Hernangomez provides more of the value we are typically looking for, and he gets a delicious matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers. The minutes are never huge for Willy, but he is the type of per minute producer who can smash in a pace-up spot.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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