Bales’ NBA Game Theory (2/11)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (2/11)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

Guard is somewhat interesting at the moment. First, let’s start with the Charlotte Hornets guards. All three of them can be considered here. LaMelo Ball and Kelly Oubre are my favorite options with Oubre being the best. He’s playing SF for Charlotte with multiple players out, and the Detroit Pistons are one of the worst teams in the NBA against small forwards. They also struggle against shooting guards, which is why we can consider Terry Rozier as well. Ball sees a big boost with Gordon Hayward out, and he’s a solid option as the leader of the offense. With Monte Morris out, Facundo Campazzo or Bones Hyland will likely draw the start for the Denver Nuggets. Quite frankly, I believe either of the two can be considered, specifically if Campazzo draws the start. Still, the starter is likely safer and would be the priority option. If you can spend up, Dejounte Murray and Trae Young are facing off against each other. I prefer Murray, who will be playing without Derrick White tonight. He’s looked elite without White this season, and he’s a triple-double threat. Both can be considered, though. D’Angelo Russell or Patrick Beverley can be considered here as well.

GPP

Donovan Mitchell continues to be a bit too cheap for the Utah Jazz. He’s looked great since returning from injury, and he gets a plus matchup against the Orlando Magic. They don’t have anyone that can slow down Mitchell, and he’s a great high-priced option in tournaments. Marcus Smart is another interesting option, specifically with Derrick White potentially playing tonight. Smart’s flashed plenty of upside in recent games, and he gets a solid matchup against the Denver Nuggets tonight. Zach LaVine is playing in a game with an absurd game total, and he comes with obvious scoring potential. He isn’t safe enough for cash games with the Big 3 healthy in Chicago, but he comes with more than enough upside to be used in GPPs. You can also consider Kevin Huerter, Lonnie Walker, and Ayo Dosunmu here.

Forward

Cash

You can save some salary at forward on this slate. The new San Antonio Spurs players (Tomas Satoransky, Josh Richardson, and Romeo Langford) aren’t expected to play tonight. That opens the door for Devin Vassell to play 30+ minutes in this game. He’s a player that comes with elite scoring potential, and he’s entirely too cheap for this type of role, especially against the Atlanta Hawks. Danny Green should see bigger minutes after the Philadelphia 76ers traded multiple players for James Harden and Paul Millsap. Harden’s already been ruled out, which could thrust Green into bigger minutes. I don’t like the idea of using him any more than the next person, but he’s a cheap option to consider. Jayson Tatum is in an interesting spot tonight, and I’ll need to wait on the Boston Celtics starting lineup for him. The Denver Nuggets have struggled against power forwards throughout the season, and if Tatum slides over to power forward, I’ll have plenty of interest in him. Truthfully, as long as White is active, Tatum should see plenty of PF minutes, making him a great option. You can also consider John Collins, Kenrich Williams, and Wendell Carter at forward tonight.

GPP

Evan Mobley is in an interesting spot tonight. The Indiana Pacers don’t have the best group of bigs anymore, leaving plenty of opportunity for the Cleveland Cavaliers bigs. I don’t trust Mobley in cash games with Jarrett Allen on the floor, though. The latter’s been playing too well and taking too many opportunities. Jerami Grant is also an interesting option tonight. He’s surprisingly cheap, and he gets a great matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. He should benefit from this matchup, and the Detroit Pistons could look to showcase Grant throughout the remainder of the season to trade him in the offseason. Darius Bazley is taking on a larger role in the Oklahoma City Thunder rotation. He hasn’t priced himself out at this point, although he gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s better suited for tournaments because of the matchup. Lu Dort, Chris Duarte, DeMar DeRozan, and Anthony Edwards can be considered here.

Center

Cash

If you can spend up at center, you’re likely going with Joel Embiid. The Philadelphia 76ers will be without several players after trading multiple options for James Harden, who’s already been ruled out. Embiid will take over the entire offense, and he’s likely going to play big minutes without Andre Drummond behind him. If you need to save a bit of salary, Goga Bitadze is an interesting option. He posted 30 DK points in 30 minutes in his last game, and he could see solid minutes once again tonight. He’s a great per-minute option, and he can be considered in all leagues for his price tag. Nikola Jokic is another option that can be considered here. He’s always an elite option, but I slightly prefer Embiid in cash games to Jokic, and it’s unlikely you’ll play both of them.

GPP

Isaiah Stewart is in an elite spot tonight. He’s still extremely cheap, and he gets an elite matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. They struggle as much as anyone against centers, and Stewart comes with tremendous rebounding potential. Jarrett Allen is another great option on this slate. He’s playing at an extremely high level, and the Indiana Pacers no longer have great big men to slow him down. Allen’s scored 39+ DK points in each of his last three games, including a 62.5 DK point performance. He’s an elite option in this matchup. Other centers you can consider are Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Vucevic, Clint Capela, and Jakob Poeltl.

 

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