Bales’ NBA Game Theory (2/1)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (2/1)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

You’re starting your cash games at guard with Spencer Dinwiddie. Bradley Beal’s been ruled out for the next few games, and Dinwiddie’s price tag hasn’t adjusted yet. In nine games without Beal, Dinwiddie’s averaging 23.6 points, 5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game. Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole can both be considered here as well. They get a great matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, and Klay Thompson’s already been ruled out tonight. Both will see an increase in their offensive role, specifically Poole, and they’re great options on this slate. On the opposite side of this game, Dejounte Murray is a great option. He’s extremely versatile, although he gets a tough matchup against the Golden State Warriors. If you don’t want to use Curry in this spot, Murray is an elite pivot off of him, even in cash games. Another spot where I love the guards is Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Both can be considered in all leagues for their price tags, although I slightly prefer Paul. The Brooklyn Nets have struggled against versatile point guards, and Paul comes with triple-double potential. D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, and Jaylen Nowell can all be considered here depending on which ones are playing or not.

GPP

Gary Trent is one of my favorite options in GPPs on this slate for the second consecutive night. He’s scored 30+ points in each of his last four games, and he gets a plus matchup against the Miami Heat. Although Miami’s a solid defense, they’ve struggled against shooting guards throughout the season, specifically ones that can shoot from deep. Kyrie Irving and James Harden (assuming he plays) are both interesting options. They come with tremendous upside, and they get a decent matchup, specifically Irving, against the Phoenix Suns. They’ll go overlooked with several elite guards on this slate, but they are high upside tournament options. You can also consider Tyler Herro, Fred VanVleet, Cole Anthony, Will Barton, and Jalen Suggs at this position tonight.

Forward

Cash

Forward is extremely weak tonight, which is often the case in my opinion. Wendell Carter Jr. is one of the easier options. He gets a matchup against his former team, who’ve struggled against the power forward throughout the season. He’s averaging over 40 DK points per game against the Chicago Bulls this season, and Carter is entirely too cheap for this slate. With Jae Crowder out, Cameron Johnson makes a great option once again. He isn’t necessarily a lock at his current price tag, but he’s still a bit too cheap. He’s scored 41.25 and 35 DK points in two of his last four games, although Johnson gets a plus matchup against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. If you need to save salary here, Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert are interesting options with Bradley Beal out tonight. Of the two, I slightly prefer Avdija, but either of them can be considered in this spot. If one of the two is starting, they will be the better option. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Franz Wagner, and Otto Porter Jr. can be considered here as well.

GPP

DeMar DeRozan gets an elite matchup against the Orlando Magic. The Magic have struggled against scoring power forwards throughout the season. I initially considered DeRozan for cash games, but I prefer him in GPPs with the Chicago Bulls mostly healthy at this point. Ish Wainright saw extended minutes in his last game, scoring 20.5 DK points in 20 minutes. He could find around 20 minutes once again tonight. He gets a plus matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, but Wainright is still an extremely risky option. He should only be considered in GPPs tonight. Kyle Kuzma’s playing slightly better with Bradly Beal out this season as well. His splits aren’t as distinct as Dinwiddie’s, but he will benefit from Beal being out. Keldon Johnson, Grayson Allen, and P.J. Tucker are all interesting options here in GPPs tonight.

Center

Cash

Center is extremely interesting tonight. If you can get to Nikola Jokic, he’s an outstanding option. He gets a great matchup against the Minnesota Wolves, who’ve struggled against centers throughout the season. If Jokic is out, Karl-Anthony Towns can be shifted into the cash game conversation. They won’t have anyone that can slow down Towns in that situation. If Jokic is playing, Towns should only be used in GPPs. Thomas Bryant is playing roughly 20 minutes per game for the Washington Wizards. He has the ability to score around 1 fantasy point per minute, and he’s still only $3.5k. There aren’t many elite salary relief options tonight, and Bryant is one of the better options.

GPP

Pascal Siakam is locked into big minutes and a massive role in the Toronto Raptors rotation. Although I don’t love the matchup against the Miami Heat, Siakam recently posted over 60 DK points against them (although the game went to 3OT). He’s likely to see 40+ minutes in this game, and he’s a great option for his price tag. On the other side, Bam Adebayo is an outstanding option. He gets a plus matchup against the Toronto Raptors, and he’s still reasonably priced. Adebayo comes with more than enough upside to be considered in all leagues on this slate. Other centers that can be considered include Nicolas Claxton, Jakob Poeltl, Nikola Vucevic, and Kevon Looney.

 

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