Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/3)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.
| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| J. Brunson | W. Carter | D. Dedmon | MIN/BKN |
| L. Doncic | D. Gallinari | D. Ayton | LAC/LAL |
| D. Graham | J. Vanderbilt | R. Williams | ORL/HOU |
| C. Martin | M. Kleber | M. Bamba | NO/DAL |
| C. Anthony | E. Mobley | J. Valanciunas | PHI/ATL |
*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Guards
Cash
With Kristaps Porzingis listed as doubtful tonight, Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson become two of the best options on the slate. Doncic’s scored 53+ DK points in 9 of his last 10 games, including an 80 DK point performance. He’ll see an even larger role in the offense, and Doncic is an elite triple-double threat. Brunson is generally the player to step up when either Doncic or Porzingis miss time. He’s expected to find 30+ minutes as Dallas runs a smaller lineup. Cole Anthony is another player that can be considered here. He’s taken on a bigger role for the Orlando Magic, and he’s flashed elite upside this season. Anthony also gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets tonight. Chris Paul and Cameron Payne can be considered at point guard, although Doncic and Brunson are in a tier of their own.
Tyler Herro somewhat struggled in his last game, posting only 30.25 DK points against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With that being said, he saw 36 minutes and 23 shot attempts. He’ll continue to be a massive part of the offense with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo out for the time being. Herro gets a solid matchup against the Indiana Pacers, and he should see plenty of opportunities in this game as well. Keep in mind, there are a few players listed in point guard that also have shooting guard eligibility tonight.
GPP
There are a few great tournament options at point guard tonight. Reggie Jackson’s coming off of a disappointing game, but he gets an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. They’ve struggled to contain opposing point guards throughout the season, and Jackson recently posted 50+ DK points against the Dallas Mavericks. Devonte’ Graham’s played 30 minutes in each of his last 2 games, scoring 27.75 and 20.25 DK points. Although the totals are nothing to write home above, Graham comes with significantly more upside, specifically in a great matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. Graham’s far too cheap on this slate, and I’d consider him in cash games if there weren’t several elite other options. Trae Young, Dennis Schroder, Malcolm Brogdon, and Kyle Lowry can all be considered in tournaments as well.
Josh Richardson’s seen mixed results throughout the 2021 season. He’s expected to play bigger minutes with Jaylen Brown out tonight. Richardson gets a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, which should help keep his ownership down. He’s far too cheap for his upside in a bigger role, making him a great option in GPPs. Chris Duarte and Caris LeVert have disappointed at times throughout the season. Duarte’s been a bit safer in recent games, although both come with plenty of upside against an injured Miami Heat defense. Neither are safe enough for cash games, but they come with more than enough upside to be considered for their price tags. Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Eric Gordon are all solid tournament options tonight.
Forward
Cash
Small forward’s an interesting position because of a lack of elite options here. Caleb Martin’s played 28 and 33 minutes in his last 2 games, scoring 21.75 and 25.5 DK points. He’s expected to find similar minutes as Miami continues to deal with injuries, and Martin gets a great matchup against the Indiana Pacers. He’s still under $4k, and he can be used as a salary relief option in cash games. Cameron Johnson and Landry Shamet are two more cheap options that are benefitting from an injury. With Devin Booker out, Johnson and Shamet scored 33.5 and 20.75 DK points, respectively. They’re both playing bigger minutes, and they’re both priced around $4k as well. If you’re looking to spend up here, Paul George is my favorite option in a battle in Los Angeles.
Wendell Carter Jr. continues to be a bit too cheap for his current role in the Orlando Magic rotation. He’s only scored 28 DK points in each of his last 2 games, although he was 2 points or 2 rebounds off of a double-double in each game. He scored between 35 and 48 DK points in 3 consecutive games prior to that. Carter gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets, and he’s an elite option on this slate. The Atlanta Hawks are dealing with several injuries in their rotation, which has opened up more minutes for Danilo Gallinari. He scored 22 DK points in 29 minutes in his last game, and Gallinari comes with significantly more upside than he flashed in that game. He’s only $4.1k because of a limited role throughout the season, and he’s a player that is simply too cheap for playing nearly 30 minutes. John Collins and Maxi Kleber (if Porzingis is ruled out) can be considered at power forward.
GPP
Franz Wagner’s price tag is on the rise, as he continues to find success. He’s scored 28+ DK points in each of his last 8 games (excluding the games against Milwaukee). His price tag is only so low still because of those games against the Bucks. Wagner boasts 45+ DK point upside, and he gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets, who struggle against small forwards. Jae’Sean Tate is coming off of a ridiculous 69.5 DK point performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Although we should expect that production again, he’s locked into big minutes for Houston. He also gets a great matchup against the Orlando Magic, who’ve struggled defensively throughout the season. Tate consistently flashes upside, and this is an elite game to attack tonight. You can consider Josh Hart, Kevin Durant, and Terrence Ross here as well.
Evan Mobley is one of my favorite GPP options on this slate. He gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards, and he’ll use his athleticism to find success in this matchup. He needed only 25 minutes to post 32.25 DK points against them earlier this season, and Mobley comes with tremendous upside for his price tag. Jarred Vanderbilt is another interesting option. He’s taken on a larger role for the Minnesota Wolves, averaging 29.4 DK points in 28.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s an elite rebounder, who has always performed well on a per-minute basis. Vanderbilt’s expected to find big minutes tonight, making him a great option for under $5k. Marcus Morris, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Tobias Harris (if active) are interesting power forward options tonight.
Center
Cash
Cash games are relatively obvious at center tonight. Dewayne Dedmon is playing bigger minutes without Bam Adebayo in the lineup. His price is increasing, although it’s still far too low. Dedmon posted 39.25 DK points in 31 minutes in his last start, and he shot only 38.5% from the field. The Miami Heat will need his size against the Indiana Pacers, and he’s arguably the easiest play on the entire slate. If you want to use two centers in your lineup, Deandre Ayton is the other cash game option. He’s taken on a larger role without Devin Booker in the offense, scoring 38.5 and 47.75 DK points in his last 2 games. He gets a rematch against the Golden State Warriors tonight, and Ayton’s an elite option.
GPP
Jonas Valanciunas was an elite option against the Dallas Mavericks the other night then he flopped in somewhat of limited minutes because of a blowout. Now he’s going overlooked in the same matchup. It’s an elite time to buy low on him, and he’s one of the best GPP options on the slate. Mo Bamba is also in a great situation tonight, as the Houston Rockets love running small lineups. They’ve struggled against centers, and Bamba comes with tremendous upside. He’s somewhat of a boom or bust option, but that’s also helped keep his price tag relatively low. Robert Williams is another interesting option here, as he only saw 25 minutes in his return from injury. He’s expected to see bigger minutes tonight, and he’s a similar option to Bamba. LaMarcus Aldridge, Joel Embiid, and Dwight Howard all stick out as high-upside plays on this slate as well.
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