Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/21)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/21)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

 

---

 

Guards

Cash

With there only being five games tonight, we have an oddly large cash pool at guard tonight. Jaylen Nowell is expected to take on a bigger role with several players out for the Minnesota Wolves. He’s quietly posted 26.5 and 23.75 DK points in his last 2 games, and he could find 20+ minutes tonight. He’s far too cheap on this slate. Jalen Brunson is another elite option. Luka Doncic, among others, is out tonight, and Brunson’s posted 37 and 42.25 DK points in his last 2 games. He’s taken on a massive role in the offense, and that won’t change tonight. He’ll be a lock if Kristaps Porzingis is ruled out as well. Damian Lillard is questionable tonight, but he’s an elite option if he’s starting. He’s playing a massive role with C.J. McCollum out, and Lillard comes with as much upside as anyone on this slate. He’s still priced under $10k, making him a great play in all leagues. D’Angelo Russell and Tim Hardaway Jr. are great options as well. If Derrick Rose is ruled out, Kemba Walker is a solid cash game option. If Rose is starting, he can be considered if you’re in a tough spot.

GPP

Devin Booker is one of the more interesting options on the slate. He gets a solid matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, and he recently posted 34.5 DK points in only 26 minutes in his first game back from injury. I’m expecting Booker to see an uptick in minutes tonight, although the uncertainty makes him a risky option. Malcolm Brogdon’s been struggling quite a bit recently, but he still comes with plenty of upside on a nightly basis. He gets a great matchup against an injury Miami Heat rotation, and Brogdon should see ample opportunities to find success in this game. Devonte’ Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are two solid guard options for the New Orleans Pelicans. They both get great matchups against the Portland Blazers, and they come with extremely low price tags. Kyle Lowry, Malik Beasley, Trey Burke, and Wayne Ellington are all interesting options for varying price tags.

Forward

Cash

If he’s starting, you’re likely beginning forward with Kristaps Porzingis. He’s consistently found success without Luka Doncic on the court, and he gets an elite matchup against the Minnesota Wolves. Porzingis is reasonably priced at this point, and he’s a great option on this smaller slate. Larry Nance Jr. is another great option for a significantly lower price tag. He’s been playing big minutes for the Portland Blazers, as he’s averaging 24.9 DK points in 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’ll continue to see plenty of minutes for Portland, and he’ll benefit from the matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. On the other side, Brandon Ingram is an elite option at small forward. He’s been playing consistently well for New Orleans, and Portland doesn’t feature anyone that will be able to slow him down defensively. He’s an elite option at a relatively weak position. I’d also consider Nassir Little, Josh Hart, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Norman Powell here.

GPP

Evan Fournier quietly makes an outstanding tournament option on this slate. He’s coming off of a 48.75 DK point performance, and Fournier isn’t a player that’s scared to take over the New York Knicks offense. If Derrick Rose is ruled out, Fournier can be shifted into the cash conversation. Julius Randle can also be considered in GPPs. He’s trending for some ownership, though, and I’ll likely fade him if that’s the case on this slate. Herbert Jones is another player that sticks out here. He comes with plenty of upside, although he’s extremely inconsistent. I like his style of play in a matchup against the Portland Blazers, though, and this should be the type of game environment he can find success in. Others to consider in at forward in GPPs include Jaden McDaniels, Oshae Brissett, and Domantas Sabonis. 

Center

Cash

There are several players I’m considering in cash games at center tonight. If I’m spending up, Karl-Anthony Towns makes an elite option in a great matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. Right below him, Jonas Valanciunas gets a plus matchup against the Portland Blazers. He’s been locked back into bigger minutes, and he comes with far too cheap of a price tag for his recent production. Omer Yurtseven’s taken on a larger role in recent games, and that’s expected to continue tonight. He’s been playing well on a per-minute basis, and he’s a great salary relief option. Naz Reid is also expected to get around 20 minutes tonight, and he’s another solid salary relief play. Yurtseven is a priority over Reid, although Reid has PF eligibility, which is why he’s listed as a cash game option and not solely GPP.

GPP

You can use any of the cash game options in GPPs tonight, as they’re likely to pull ownership from each other. If some pull away, the similarly priced option listed above would become an elite GPP play. Myles Turner is another great tournament option at center. He’s been playing well, and he gets a matchup against the Miami Heat, who continue to struggle with their rotation. Turner boasts elite upside because of his block potential. Deandre Ayton and Jusuf Nurkic are two high-upside options who have seen inconsistent minutes throughout the season. Still, they each boast tremendous potential when on the court, and I’m not scared of either matchup on this slate. Isaiah Stewart, Dewayne Dedmon, and Dwight Powell can be considered here as well.

 

Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)