Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/2)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.
| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| A. Simons | G. Antetokounmpo | D. Ayton | POR/SA |
| C. McCollum | L. Shamet | J. Nurkic | MIL/TOR |
| D. Murray | N. Powell | P. Achiuwa | OKC/MEM |
| T. Jones | A. Burks | J. Poeltl | DET/PHX |
| C. Paul | J. Jackson | S. Adams | CHI/NYK |
*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Guards
Cash
Injuries will create chalk at the point guard position tonight. With Damian Lillard out, Anfernee Simons will continue to make an outstanding option. He’s played 29+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, averaging 32.4 DK points per game in those contests. Simons is an elite option in all leagues. Chris Paul will benefit from the injury to Devin Booker. He’s coming off of a 50 DK point performance, and Paul will play a larger role in the offense, specifically as a scorer. He gets an elite matchup against a bad Detroit Pistons defense tonight. Cam Payne certainly comes with a bit of risk, but he comes with elite upside for a low price tag. He’s expected to see 20-25 minutes, and Payne comes with tremendous upside for roughly $4k.
The other Portland Blazers guard that will garner plenty of ownership is CJ McCollum. He’s coming off of a 47.5 DK point performance, and McCollum takes over the offense without Damian Lillard in the rotation. He should continue to play massive minutes, finding 20+ shot attempts tonight. McCollum and Simons could be the chalkiest duo on this slate. Tre Mann is another interesting option here. He’s played 30 and 32 minutes in his last 2 games, as he’s benefiting from Josh Giddey missing time. Mann should start once again tonight, and he’s flashed 30+ DK point upside. He’s still priced under $4k, and Mann is one of the best salary relief options on the slate.
GPP
With so much concentrated ownership at guard tonight, it opens plenty of elite tournament options at both positions. Dejounte Murray’s averaging 55.2 DK points in 35.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He gets a great matchup against the Portland Blazers, and Murray boasts elite potential in this matchup. Tyus Jones is locked into bigger minutes with Ja Morant out, and he’s found plenty of success on a per-minute basis this season. With that being said, Jones struggled in full minutes in his last game, which is why he isn’t projecting for a ton of ownership tonight. He still boasts that upside, though, making him an elite GPP pivot. Jrue Holiday, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Immanuel Quickley, and Dennis Smith Jr. are all interesting options for varying price tags at point guard.
Derrick Rose’s played 30+ minutes in each of his last 2 starts, and that’s seemingly going to be the case moving forward with Kemba Walker out of the rotation. He scored 36.75 and 24.5 DK points in those games as a big part of the offense. Rose has been significantly better at home this season, and he gets another revenge matchup against the Chicago Bulls. Lu Dort continues to enjoy a breakout season, and he’s locked into a big role, especially with Josh Giddey missing time. Dort’s still slightly underpriced, and he comes with tremendous upside. He also gets a plus matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, making him a great GPP option at shooting guard. You can also consider Khris Middleton, Derrick White, and Desmond Bane here.
Forward
Cash
Small forward feels relatively simple at the moment, although there are a few options that can be considered. Landry Shamet took on a larger role after the Devin Booker injury, and he’s expected to find minutes in the 20s tonight. Shamet relies quite a bit on scoring, although he’s near the minimum price, so we’re more or less looking for the minutes here. The other options to consider here are Norman Powell and Gary Trent Jr., who are both questionable at the moment. They’ll both benefit from injuries to their teams, as they take on larger offensive roles. Powell and Trent are both slightly too cheap, and either can be used if they’re starting tonight.
There are plenty of salary relief options on this slate, making it easy to get to Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s coming off of a 69.5 DK point performance, and he gets another great matchup against the Toronto Raptors tonight. Antetkounmpo continues to be one of the best fantasy options in the NBA, and he’s an elite play on this small of a slate. If Norman Powell is out, Larry Nance Jr. will slide into the cash game conversation. He comes with plenty of upside, and he can still be considered in GPPs if Powell is active. The only other player to consider here is Jaren Jackson Jr. He can be used because of how small this slate is, although he comes with quite a bit of foul risk on a nightly basis. I slightly prefer him in GPPs, although he’s a decent cash game option if you’re stuck here.
GPP
There are a few interesting tournament options at small forward tonight. Alec Burks is starting at point guard for the New York Knicks, and he still has small forward eligibility on DraftKings. He’s scored 46.25 and 40.75 DK points in his last 2 starts, and Burks is locked into big minutes. I don’t mind him in cash games, although I think there are better options for roster construction purposes. Cam Johnson is another interesting option here. He’ll likely benefit a bit from the injury to Devin Booker, as he’ll slide into the small forward slot with Mikal Bridges moving to shooting guard. Johnson’s played 28+ minutes in 2 of his last 3 games, and he should see similar minutes tonight. He also gets a plus matchup against the Detroit Pistons tonight. Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Zach LaVine can be used here as well.
Brandon Clarke continues to be an outstanding option for the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s playing limited minutes, although he produces at an extremely high level on a per-minute basis. Clarke will likely find around 20 minutes tonight, and he quietly boasts 30 DK point upside for a sub-$4k price tag. Keldon Johnson is locked into big minutes for the San Antonio Spurs, and he comes with tremendous upside because of his scoring potential. Johnson gets a plus matchup against the Portland Blazers tonight as well. He’s been somewhat boom or bust throughout the season, and he’s a great tournament option. You can also look at Jae Crowder, Robert Covington, and DeMar DeRozan at power forward.
Center
Cash
Jusuf Nurkic isn’t locked into massive minutes, but he doesn’t need them to produce. He’s averaging 36.9 DK points in only 26.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Nurkic could play with the ball in his hands more tonight, and he’s a great option on this slate. Deandre Ayton isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s performed well throughout the season. He’s coming off of a 47.75 DK point performance, and Ayton should be more involved in the offense without Devin Booker. He can be considered in all leagues because of that.
GPP
Steven Adams comes with tremendous upside in this matchup, although his minutes are inconsistent. If I trusted him playing bigger minutes tonight, he’d be in my cash game pool. He gets the revenge game against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that struggles against centers. Adams is a great option. Jakob Poeltl is another great tournament option at center. He’s averaging 31.5 DK points in 29.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Poeltl’s playing extremely well for the San Antonio Spurs, and he isn’t quite expensive enough at this point. Precious Achiuwa, Isaiah Stewart, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are solid options in GPPs as well.
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