Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/13)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/13)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

 

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Guards

Cash

This is an odd slate, as there aren’t many players that need to be locked into cash games. Instead, there are several options that might not garner a ton of ownership but make great options. Reggie Jackson is arguably the most mispriced pure point guard tonight. He’ll play a massive role with Paul George doubtful to play, and he should be priced significantly north of $6k. Trae Young is another elite option, posting 48+ DK points in 9 consecutive games. He’s recorded 55+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, flashing 60+ DK point upside. Young gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets, and he’s an elite option in all leagues. Kyle Lowry, Armoni Brooks, and Gabe Vincent can be considered here for varying price tags.

Jalen Brunson is likely the most mispriced player on the slate, and he could end up being the highest owned. He’s taking on a bigger role with Luka Doncic injured, and Brunson is coming off of a 33.25 DK point performance. He gets an elite matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, and he’s an easy plug-and-play at guard on this slate. With Paul George doubtful, Brandon Boston can be considered here if you need salary relief. He’s the minimum price, and he posted 39 DK points in 25 minutes only 2 games ago. He isn’t my favorite option, but he’s one of the best salary relief options on this slate. Tyrese Haliburton and Gary Trent Jr. will face off tonight, and they both make great options on this slate.

GPP

Jordan Poole’s been extremely consistent in recent games, and he boasts tremendous scoring upside. If there weren’t so many elite guard options, he could be considered in cash games. Still, he gets a great matchup against the Indiana Pacers, and Poole is an elite GPP option for a similar price to Reggie Jackson and Jalen Brunson. Spencer Dinwiddie could trend toward some ownership tonight, and I’ll likely avoid him if that’s the case. He comes with tremendous upside for a price tag that’s been overcorrected tonight. If he’s going to be lower owned, he’s a great GPP play. Malcolm Brogdon, Jrue Holiday, and Chris Paul can all be considered for this position as well.

The Sacramento Kings feature the worst offense in the NBA against opposing guards. Fred VanVleet comes with elite upside, although I don’t trust his price tag in cash games. He struggled in their first matchup this season, which could keep his ownership a bit lower tonight. VanVleet comes with tremendous potential in this particular matchup, though. Terry Rozier’s a risky option because he’s been out for nearly 2 weeks at this point. With that being said, he’s expected to return to full minutes. If that’s the case, he boasts tremendous upside because he should take on a larger role in a depleted Charlotte Hornets offense. You can also consider Tyler Herro, Eric Gordon, Cam Payne, and Bones Hyland here.

Forward

Cash

Harrison Barnes hasn’t looked great since returning, and DraftKings hasn’t adjusted his price tag yet. He gets a great matchup against the Toronto Raptors, though, and Barnes is expected to play 30+ minutes tonight. As I mentioned before, this is far too cheap for that type of role, and Barnes is an elite option at a relatively weak small forward position. Marcus Morris and Terance Mann are expected to play bigger minutes with Paul George out tonight. I believe that either can be considered in cash games, although I slightly prefer Mann, who’s posted 33.75 and 26 DK points in his last 2 games. Jayson Tatum and Scottie Barnes are two higher-priced options that can be considered in cash games tonight.

Kristaps Porzingis is a relatively easy play at this position. He’d be viable against the Charlotte Hornets at $8k even if the Dallas Mavericks were healthy. That isn’t the case, though, and he’s been great without Luka Doncic in the lineup throughout his career. Porzingis is coming off of a bad game, but I’m fully expecting him to get back on track tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo is another player I’d consider here if you can fit him. He gets a solid matchup against the Boston Celtics. It’s important to note that he isn’t my favorite high-priced option on this slate, but I do believe you can consider him here if you feel strongly about him. Other power forwards to consider in cash games include Marvin Bagley and Pascal Siakam.

GPP

Dillon Brooks continues to be a player I’m attacking until his price jumps. He’s been relatively consistent in recent games, and he’s a massive part of the Memphis Grizzlies offense. As long as Ja Morant is out, Brooks will continue to see plenty of shot attempts. He’ll see low ownership because of the matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, but Brooks makes a solid volume option in GPPs tonight. Garison Mathews has been far too cheap for quite some time, and tonight is no different. He’s an elite shooter who relies heavily on scoring. He also splits time between small forward and shooting guard. The Atlanta Hawks have features one of the worst defenses in the NBA against shooting guards, and Mathews comes with elite upside for his price tag. Jae’Sean Tate, Lauri Markkanen, and Gordon Hayward can all be used in GPPs on this slate.

Miles Bridges isn’t a player that really has benefited from several players missing in the Charlotte Hornets rotation. With that being said, his price tag hasn’t jumped, and he still does own plenty of upside for where it sits. Most importantly, he gets a great matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who’ve struggled with bigs throughout the season. Aaron Gordon is an interesting option in a matchup against the Washington Wizards. They’ve struggled against scoring power forwards while limiting everything else they do on the court. That’s a bit of a concern, but Gordon continues to play well for the Denver Nuggets, and he’s locked into massive minutes for them. He’s extremely risky, but the opportunities will be there. Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker, and P.J. Washington (if active) are solid options here as well.

Center

Cash

There are a few options that can be considered here, although two sit well above the rest at the moment. As always, Nikola Jokic is arguably the best fantasy option in the NBA, and he can always be considered. Jokic gets a great matchup against the Washington Wizards, who don’t have the size/talent to slow him down in this game. He’s a triple-double threat, and he’s likely the best spend-up on this slate. Chris Boucher is playing bigger minutes as the Toronto Raptors deal with several injuries in their frontcourt. Boucher hasn’t flashed the absurd upside that we all know he possesses in recent games, and it’s only a matter of time before we see it if he’s finding minutes in the mid-20s. He also gets an elite matchup against the Sacramento Kings tonight. Xavier Tillman is another cheap option that can be used in cash games on this slate.

GPP

I initially was considering John Collins in cash games, although I don’t trust the situation. The Houston Rockets have featured one of the worst defenses in the NBA against power forwards, but we have a revenge narrative for Clint Capela. This could easily be a situation where Capela takes over in the paint, somewhat limiting Collins. Both of them can be used in GPPs. Joel Embiid gets a matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, and he’s in a similar spot as Aaron Gordon. Memphis has struggled to slow down scoring centers, but they have limited their production in other categories. Still, I trust Embiid, who is playing an elite role in the Philadelphia 76ers rotation. You can also consider Deandre Ayton, Al Horford, and Dewayne Dedmon tonight.

 

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