Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/10)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (12/10)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

 

---

 

Guards

Cash

Point guard is one of the most interesting positions in cash games because you don’t have the clear chalk from the Charlotte Hornets. There isn’t one clear-cut chalk option at this point, although Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is my top option. He’s performed well against the Los Angeles Lakers this season, as they’ve struggled against scoring point guards thus far. Trae Young is another outstanding option, as he’s averaging 56.2 DK points per game over the last 10 days. He gets a plus matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, and Young is an elite option if you can get to the top of this position. Dennis Schroder, Tyrese Haliburton, and Patrick Beverley are other options that can be considered here.

Shooting guard is extremely simple in cash games. Cody Martin and Kelly Oubre are starting at the guard slots for the Charlotte Hornets, and they have the potential to play 40+ minutes tonight. The Hornets have an extremely short roster, and these two have been consistent in recent games for their current price tags. They’re elite options. On the other side of this game, Terence Davis has been starting for the Sacramento Kings, and he continues to find success in bigger minutes. He’s easily been beating his price tag, and he’s an elite option in the best game on the slate. Just make sure he’s starting, as he’ll take on significantly more risk if he’s coming off of the bench.

GPP

Everyone listed at point guard above can be considered in GPPs, as none of them are projecting for elite ownership. Devonte’ Graham is a cheaper option that sticks out. He’s locked into big minutes for the New Orleans Pelicans, and he’s priced far too low for his talent. He gets a plus matchup against the Detroit Pistons, and Graham’s been significantly better at home in 2021. Armoni Brooks is another interesting option. He’s playing bigger minutes for the Houston Rockets, and he’s looked outstanding on a per-minute basis at times this season. Brooks scored 30+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games with 25+ minutes, and he’s expected to see closer to 30 minutes tonight. He’s an interesting direct pivot off of Terence Davis for the same price tag. De’Aaron Fox, Darius Garland, and Malcolm Brogdon are all interesting options here as well.

Cade Cunningham is playing at the level everyone expected when the Detroit Pistons drafted him. His price tag is up quite a bit, although it doesn’t account for his tremendous scoring and triple-double upside. He gets a great matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who’ve struggled against point guards throughout the season (although Cunningham switches time between guard positions). There are very few players we can get leverage on for Charlotte, and it looks like James Bouknight could be one. He hasn’t seen a massive role thus far, but he could be forced into 25 or so minutes tonight. For his price tag, he can be considered in GPPs. It’s a way to get a piece of that game without getting the ownership. Lu Dort, Cameron Payne, and Khris Middleton are also great options at this position.

Forward

Cash

Unsurprisingly, we’re looking at the Charlotte Hornets here. Miles Bridges and Gordon Hayward will be locked into massive minutes. Either makes a great option, and Bridges could see extra rebounding opportunities with PJ Washington doubtful. With that being said, I slightly prefer Hayward, who has more of the ability to create offensively. I have Harrison Barnes listed as a Safe GPP play, but he can be used in all leagues if you need. He returned to 30 minutes in the Sacramento Kings’ last game, and he should see that again tonight. DraftKings mispriced him, and I don’t expect him to be this cheap for long. He’s an elite option in all leagues in this game environment. Josh Hart is another player that can be considered here, but I have him a tier believe the three listed above.

There are two guys I’d add to this list with power forward eligibility. Anthony Davis has been performing extremely well for the Los Angeles Lakers throughout the season. He’s also performed well against the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, and Davis can be considered in all leagues if he’s active. LeBron James is another outstanding option here. He’s a bit more expensive, although he’s still too cheap. He’s posted 50+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 games, including a trio of games with 60+ DK points. James should easily be over $10k, yet that isn’t the case. Both of the Lakers guys can be used in all leagues tonight.

GPP

With so much concentrated chalk at small forward, basically anyone else will be lower-owned on this slate. RJ Barrett’s taken a step forward after being called out by his coach a couple of games ago. He’s posted 26 and 47.75 DK points in his last 2 games. Barrett also gets an elite matchup against the Toronto Raptors tonight, and they’ve struggled against small forwards throughout the season. Garrison Matthews is another interesting option here. His price just won’t increase, yet he’s scored 20+ DK points in 7 consecutive games, flashing 30+ DK point upside. He’s a three-point shooter, and he gets a plus matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who’ve struggled against the three throughout the season. If this weren’t such a large slate with obvious chalk, Matthews could be considered in cash games. You can also consider Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards, and Alec Burks at this position.

JT Thor could be another way to get leverage on the Charlotte chalk. He’s expected to see around 25-30 minutes tonight, and he’s extremely cheap. Thor hasn’t played much this season, but he posted 16 DK points in 20 minutes the other night. This is a great game environment, and he’s an interesting salary relief option. Evan Mobley continues to make a high upside option because of his ability to record blocks and steals on any given slate. He gets a solid matchup against the Minnesota Wolves, as this is the type of game that he should thrive in. Mobley’s been overly consistent in recent games, making him a better GPP option. Domantas Sabonis, Kenyon Martin Jr., and John Collins are all viable options at power forward.

Center

Cash

Similar to other positions, you can use a Charlotte Hornet here. Nick Richards drew the start in his last game, playing only 20 minutes. He should see bigger minutes tonight, as they can use him at center or go small with someone like Bridges or Thor. Regardless, Richards should see around 25 minutes, and he’s extremely cheap on this slate. With so much value, Giannis Antetokounmpo can be considered here as well. He’s been one of the top fantasy options throughout the season, and he gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets tonight. Jonas Valanciunas is heating back up, and he’s cash game viable for his current price tag.

GPP

Jarrett Allen’s been playing at an elite level in recent games. He gets a plus matchup against the Minnesota Wolves, and Allen comes with elite double-double potential. He can add blocks and steals any given night as well. Whoever is starting between Tristan Thompson and Alex Len will make a great option. They each can beat value in 20 minutes, and it isn’t out of the question that they could both find roughly 20 minutes tonight. I will prefer the starter as the minutes are safer, though. Al Horford and Myles Turner are great options in GPPs tonight as well.

 

Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)