Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/30)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/30)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

Editor’s Note: You can get 25% off of our packages using the Promo Code “TURKEY”

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Guards

Cash

With Ja Morant out for the foreseeable future, the other Memphis point guards make sense. Tyus Jones has stepped into the starting lineup, although he’s played limited minutes in a pair of blowouts. In close games, I’m expecting Jones to play closer to 30 minutes, and he’s averaging 0.95 DK points per minute on the season. De’Anthony Melton is another great option, as he’s flashed tremendous scoring potential when given the minutes. Similar to Jones, I expect Melton to sit around 30 minutes in close games, making him a great salary relief option. If you’re looking to spend a bit more salary here, Stephen Curry is in an interesting spot. He gets a solid matchup against the Phoenix Suns, and he comes with tremendous upside on a nightly basis. Damian Lillard’s another high-priced option that can be considered in cash games with only 5 games tonight.

There are two shooting guards that stick out above the rest in cash games. Fred VanVleet continues to be a leader of the Toronto Raptors offense, and he’s scored 42+ DK points in each of his last 2 games. VanVleet gets a great matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies in what is one of the best game environments on the slate. He should have no issues scoring on their defense, making him an elite option. C.J. McCollum is another great option at shooting guard on this slate. He’s cooled down a bit over the last 10 days, and we aren’t truly getting a discount on his price. Still, this is a smaller slate and a relatively weak position. McCollum comes with plenty of upside in a great matchup against the Detroit Pistons. He isn’t necessarily my favorite option, but he can be considered here.

NOTE: Damian Lillard isn’t expected to play tonight, making McCollum and Simons that much better of options.

GPP

De’Aaron Fox’s struggled quite a bit throughout the 2021 season, and he’s priced as if he’s been dominating. That should keep his ownership low, though, and Fox comes with 55+ DK point upside. He gets an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, who’ve struggled against point guards throughout the season. Fox is strictly a GPP at the moment. Kemba Walker’s been shifted out of the New York Knicks rotation, and Derrick Rose is questionable tonight. If he’s active, he comes with tremendous upside for his price tag.  Rose should see extended minutes, and he’s an outstanding scorer off of the bench. If he’s out, Immanuel Quickley will gain plenty of value. Anfernee Simons, Cameron Payne, Killian Hayes, and Russell Westbrook can all be considered here as well.

Devin Booker isn’t going to come cheap, but he comes with plenty of upside for his price tag. He’s scored 40+ DK points in 3 consecutive games, and Booker gets a solid matchup against the Golden State Warriors tonight. This game could quickly turn into a shootout between Booker and Curry, giving them both elite upside, specifically in tournaments. Avery Bradley’s already been ruled out, leaving Malik Monk to play bigger minutes. He’s scored 30+ DK points in each of his last 3 games with 30+ minutes. The major issue here is that the Los Angeles Lakers “Big Three” could start tonight, adding risk to Monk. Still, he boasts nearly unmatched upside for his price tag, making him a top salary relief option in GPPs. You can also consider Cade Cunningham, Jordan Poole, and Desmond Bane as shooting guards.

Forward

Cash

Alec Burks has been inserted into the starting lineup in place of Kemba Walker. He’ll be the New York Knicks point guard for the foreseeable future, which should solidify his minutes. Burks played 39 minutes in his last game, scoring 40.75 DK points. Although we may not consistently get those minutes, Burks is entirely too cheap for his new starting role, making him an elite option in all leagues on this slate. Gary Trent Jr.’s listed as questionable at the moment, and he’ll be locked into big minutes if he’s starting. Trent also owns a solid role in the offense with OG Anunoby injured.  He’s still extremely cheap, and he’s the second-best cash game option at this position.

Power forward could be the most open position on this slate, as no one is sticking out as the clear option. Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes get great matchups against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Both of them are locked into major minutes for the Toronto Raptors. I slightly prefer Barnes for a lower price tag, although either can be considered. Jerami Grant is another interesting option here. He’s scored 38+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 games, flashing 50 DK point upside. Grant gets a plus matchup against the Portland Blazers, and he’s a great option at power forward tonight. Nassir Little can also. be considered here if you need to save some salary.

GPP

Small forward is likely my least favorite position, as it’s clear that Burks and Trent are the top options. Saddiq Bey gets a great matchup against the Portland Blazers, though. They feature one of the worst defenses in the NBA against small forwards, adding to Bey’s ceiling tonight. He’s struggled quite a bit in recent games, although he’s flashed at times, and Bey can be considered in tournaments on this slate. Kyle Anderson is another high-upside option for his price tag. He comes with terrible risk, though, scoring 7.25 DK points only 2 games ago. Dillon Brooks is another interesting option. His minutes aren’t necessarily confirmed, but he boasts an absurd shot rate while on the floor. If Brooks sees 30+ minutes tonight, which I’m currently expecting, he comes with elite upside. He’s a great tournament option because of his scoring potential.

Brandon Clarke continues to make an interesting option for the Memphis Grizzlies. His minutes haven’t been consistent, but he boasts tremendous upside, even in limited minutes. Clarke’s scored 20+ DK points in 5 of his last 7 games, although he only saw 20+ minutes twice. He gets a great matchup against the Toronto Raptors, and Clarke should shine in what will be a matchup against a smaller Toronto frontcourt. Larry Nance Jr. is another cheaper option with plenty of upside. He’s nearly identical to Clarke in terms of a cheap option with plenty of upside on this slate. Nance recently posted 39.75 DK points in only 25 minutes against the Chicago Bulls. He isn’t safe, but he comes with enough upside to be considered. Kevin Durant, Jae Crowder, and Robert Covington are all interesting options at power forward on this slate.

Center

Cash

There are several great options at center, although two stick out above the rest at the moment. Precious Achiuwa is surprisingly cheap, as he continues to play big minutes for the Toronto Raptors. The Memphis Grizzlies are somewhat of an undersized team at times, which is the type of game Achiuwa performs at his best in. Jusuf Nurkic is on the other side of this type of matchup. He boasts elite size, and Nurkic gets a matchup against an undersized Detroit Pistons frontcourt. They won’t have anyone to slow down Nurkic, who’s performed well in recent games.

GPP

LaMarcus Aldridge continues to see plenty of minutes for the Brooklyn Nets. He’s looked great when given the time, scoring 25+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 games. Aldridge is playing well enough to be considered in cash games, as well, if you don’t feel comfortable with Achiuwa or Nurkic. Richaun Holmes gets a plus matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, who’ve struggled against centers this season. Holmes comes with double-double potential, and he boasts plenty of scoring potential. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a boom or bust option because of his inconsistent minutes. He struggles with fouls, but when he’s locked into big minutes, his upside is undeniable. Jackson simply can’t be trusted to stay on the court, making him only a GPP option. Isaiah Stewart, Deandre Ayton, and Steven Adams can be considered here as well.

 

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