Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/3)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/3)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

This is one of the craziest slates in quite some time because of Covid issues and injuries. It’s extremely important to get in our free Discord chat so you can stay up to date with all of the changes, as there are sure to be a few from the time this article is published. The initial options at point guard will be the Minnesota Wolves guys without D’Angelo Russell playing. Patrick Beverley is the top option if he’s healthy. If he can’t suit up tonight, Jordan McLaughlin will make a great option. There are plenty of salary relief options on this slate, though, giving you the option to spend up on PG tonight. If that’s the case, Stephen Curry makes an outstanding option. Although the Charlotte Hornets have performed well against the point guard this season, Curry is essentially unguardable. He’s scored 58+ DK points in 4 of his 6 games, and he’s an elite option, even for the high price tag. You can consider James Harden or Fred VanVleet in this slot, as well.

There are three players with shooting guard and small forward eligibility who will garner plenty of ownership tonight. Malik Beasley is going to be forced into 30+ minutes without D’Angelo Russell in the rotation. Beasley’s scored 24 and 28 DK points in each of his last 2 games, and he’s a great option for roughly $4k tonight. With Scottie Barnes out again tonight, Svi Mykhailiuk will be locked into bigger minutes. He’s scored 33.75 and 24.5 DK points in 35 and 22 minutes in his last 2 games. Mykhailiuk could be the highest-owned player on the slate, although there are so many elite salary relief options that he probably won’t be owned as high as he should be.

GPP

Point guard is one of the more open positions on this slate. Devonte’ Graham’s found plenty of success this season, scoring 30+ DK points in 6 of his 8 games. He’s flashed 40+ DK point upside, as well. Jordan Poole’s another interesting option. The Charlotte Hornets have struggled against scoring shooting guards this season, and Poole will see plenty of minutes next to Curry in this game. Cole Anthony’s quietly been playing at an elite level for the Orlando Magic in recent games. Over his last 6 contests, he’s averaging 45.9 DK points per game. Furthermore, he’s flashed 65+ DK point upside over that span. Darius Garland, Kemba Walker, LaMelo Ball, and De’Anthony Melton can be considered on this slate, as well.

With the ownership at shooting guard being so concentrated tonight, there are several elite tournament options at this position. The Charlotte Hornets have struggled against small forwards (as well as shooting guards), making Andrew Wiggins an elite option tonight. If it weren’t a clear-cut stars and scrubs type of game, Wiggins would likely be one of the higher owned options on the slate. Jaylen Brown gets an elite matchup against the Orlando Magic, who’ve struggled defensively throughout the season. We’ve seen elite scoring potential from him early this season, and that could be on display once again tonight. Collin Sexton also comes with plenty of scoring upside. He gets a good matchup against the Portland Blazers, and he could see a few more shot attempts with Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love out tonight. Other options to consider at this position include Bogdan Bogdanovic, Derrick White, and Luke Kennard.

 

Forward

Cash

You’re starting small forward with Cedi Osman. He’s expected to start for Lauri Markkanen, and he should see 30+ minutes tonight. The Portland Blazers feature one of the worst defenses in the NBA against small forwards, and Osman is far too cheap for his potential role tonight. Gary Trent played 43 minutes with 41 DK points in his last game. Scottie Barnes is out again, and Trent should be locked into massive minutes. He may not be needed on this slate, but he makes a great option in all leagues tonight. Assuming he’s starting tonight, Furkan Korkmaz can be considered here, as well, but there isn’t a real reason to spend down on him in cash games.

Power forward is one of the more difficult positions for cash games. No one player sticks out, although Thad Young and Jarred Vanderbilt are a bit too cheap on this slate. Young could see around 20 minutes with Jakob Polelt out, and he’s performed well on a per-minute basis in limited time thus far. Vanderbilt’s also been an elite per-minute option. With D’Angelo Russell out, the Minnesota Wolves could run a bigger lineup tonight. Vanderbilt could see a bit more time on the court, making him a great option for his current price tag. Julius Randle and OG Anunoby are two more options that can be considered depending on your lineup construction.

GPP

Paul George has found elite success early in the season without Kawhi Leonard. He’s scored 60+ DK points in 3 of his last 5 games, including each of his last 2. He gets a solid matchup against the Minnesota Wolves, and George is an outstanding GPP option tonight. Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic can also be used at the top of this position. Gordon Hayward gets a great matchup against the Golden State Warriors, who’ve struggled against small forwards this season. He isn’t a safe option, but he comes with plenty of upside for his price tag, especially in this matchup. Michael Porter, Franz Wagner, and Josh Hart make interesting options, as well.

Wendell Carter’s flashed tremendous upside this season. He gets a great matchup against the Boston Celtics, who’ve struggled against power forwards this season. Carter’s performed well in good matchups this season, and he makes a high-upside option for a surprisingly low price tag. Evan Mobley should play a massive role in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense with Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen out. Mobley can contribute in each of the five categories, adding to his elite ceiling on any given slate. Draymond Green, Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges, and Keldon Johnson can also be considered here.

 

Center

Cash

You’re going to have to make some decisions at center tonight. The most obvious option is Drew Eubanks. He’s an outstanding per-minute option, and he should see 20-25 minutes with Jakob Poeltl out tonight. You can take either side of the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings. Jonas Valanciunas is an elite option with true 20/20 potential. He’s playing a massive role in the Pelicans offense, and he gets an elite matchup against the Kings. On the other side, Richaun Holmes is a bit too cheap. The Pelicans have struggled against the center, as well, and Holmes is an elite option for his price tag tonight. The final cash game option you can consider is Nikola Jokic, and it may not be overly difficult to get to his price tag on this type of slate. Jokic is an elite player, and he gets a great matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s performed well against Steven Adams throughout his career, and he’s a great option in all leagues tonight.

GPP

Karl-Anthony Towns gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who don’t have the size or athleticism at center to slow him down. He’s locked into big minutes, and Towns is an elite option. He would be a great option in all leagues if this were a smaller slate with fewer options. Joel Embiid is another high-priced option who can be considered in GPPs. With Tobias Harris out, Embiid will be the sole focal point of the offense, although he isn’t the safest option at this position. Mo Bamba, Jarrett Allen, and Dwight Powell can be considered here, as well.

 

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