Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/27)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/27)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

There are two clear-cut cash game options at point guard tonight. Immanuel Quickley is priced around $4k, and he’s expected to draw the start with Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose already ruled out. He’s consistently found success when given the minutes throughout his career, and Quickley’s expected to play 30+ minutes tonight. He’s the easiest play on the entire slate. Kevin Porter Jr. is another elite option without Jalen Green tonight. Porter’s already scored 30+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, and he’ll take on a larger role without Green in the lineup. He also gets a plus matchup against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. This isn’t a slate to get cute at this position, as Quickley and Porter are significantly better options than anyone else at the moment.

There are a few ways you can go at shooting guard tonight. Spencer Dinwiddie isn’t expected to play tonight, leaving way for Aaron Holiday to play 30+ minutes. He’s flopped in big minutes before, but Holiday is near the minimum price tonight. He also gets a solid matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. If you need salary relief, Holiday is an outstanding option. If you can spend up here, Donovan Mitchell makes an interesting option. He’s struggled in his last couple of games, but he’s still seeing elite volume. He gets a matchup. against the New Orleans Pelicans, and Mitchell should find more success from the field in their rematch. Bruce Brown and Jalen Suggs (if Cole Anthony is out) are great options here, as well.

GPP

You’re likely starting this slot with one of the cash game options because of how elite of plays they are. If you’re looking to get completely different, though, Jordan Clarkson is an interesting option. He sees limited minutes for the Utah Jazz, but he comes with tremendous scoring potential in that time. Although he struggled against the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, I’m willing to take a shot on him again in GPPs tonight. LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier are both point guard eligible for the Charlotte Hornets. Both come with tremendous upside, and they’ll benefit from a matchup against a terrible Houston Rockets defense. Each can be considered in tournaments tonight. Darius Garland is another interesting option to consider here.

Eric Gordon’s been struggling in his last couple of games, but he’s flashed plenty of upside prior to that. He should see a bigger role in the Houston offense with Jalen Green out. Gordon relies heavily on scoring, and he’s in a great matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. He’s best suited for tournaments, even with his low price tag. Alec Burks’ minutes haven’t been overly consistent, but they should sit in the high-20s with Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose out. Burks has flashed tremendous upside, scoring 43.75 DK points against the Houston Rockets only 4 games ago. He gets another plus matchup against the Atlanta Hawks tonight, and Burks is a high upside option on this slate. Devin Booker, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Garrison Matthews can all be considered as shooting guards as well.

Forward

Cash

The Cleveland Cavaliers are getting healthy, but Lauri Markkanen continues to be underpriced. He’s scored 30+ DK points in each of his games back, and he should return to his “large-ball” three with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen expected to play tonight. Still, Markkanen’s performed well enough throughout the season that can be used in all leagues for his current price tag. Miles Bridges has been an extremely consistent option throughout the season. He’s posted 33+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 games, flashing 55 DK point upside. Bridges gets a great matchup against the Houston Rockets, and he’s an extremely safe option, although he comes with a higher price tag.

Wendell Carter Jr. was the best power forward option last night, and he scored 48 DK points for a $5.6k price tag. He’s only $200 more expensive tonight, and he’ll continue to see big minutes for the Orlando Magic. Carter’s a double-double threat with the ability to contribute in each of the five categories. He’s significantly better at home, which is a concern, although I’m not overly worried about the matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. My power forward pool in cash games consists of Carter, Bridges, and Markkanen.

GPP

Jae’Sean Tate’s seen limited minutes in his last 2 games, which has dropped his price tag to nearly $4.5k tonight. He gets a great matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, and Tate could see 30+ minutes with Jalen Green out. He’s flashed 35+ DK point upside in recent games, and Tate makes an elite tournament option for a low price tag tonight. After struggling in a pair of games, Franz Wagner’s bounced back with 28.25 and 31.75 DK points. He gets a solid matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers, although Wagner’s price tag is on the rise. I prefer him slightly in tournaments with some of the other cash game options, but he’s a solid option in cash games if you feel strongly about him there. Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Cody Martin are all small forward eligible for the Charlotte Hornets, and they can be considered on this slate.

Evan Mobley’s expected to return to action for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. If everything returns to normal, he’s an outstanding option for his price tag. With that being said, Mobley’s missed nearly two weeks of action, and he’s returning from an injury that was expected to take him longer to recover than this timetable. He’s best suited for tournaments because of that. Kristaps Porzingis caught while Luka Doncic was injured, and he continued that in Doncic’s first game back. Porzingis isn’t cheap any longer, but he gets a great matchup against the Washington Wizards tonight. He’s a great tournament option on this slate. Jae Crowder, Julius Randle, and John Collins can be used in GPPs as well.

Center

Cash

Christian Wood saw his role in the offense increase after the Jalen Green injury in their last game. He posted 43 DK points, flashing surprising assist potential. Wood will be locked into big minutes tonight, and he’s another Houston player that is a bit too cheap on this slate. LaMarcus Aldridge’s generally played solid minutes with Nic Claxton out for the Brooklyn Nets. He’s produced well in that time, and his price tag hasn’t quite caught up yet. Aldridge gets a matchup against the Phoenix Suns tonight, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate. Jarrett Allen should also be locked into big minutes, and he’s surprisingly cheap. There’s more risk involved with the Cleveland Cavaliers getting healthier, but Allen gets a solid matchup against the Orlando Magic, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.

GPP

Daniel Gafford gets an elite matchup against the Dallas Mavericks tonight. They’ve consistently struggled against centers throughout the season, and Gafford’s flashed tremendous upside when given the time. His minutes are extremely inconsistent with Montrezl Harrell in town, although I prefer Gafford for the lower price tag. Bam Adebayo’s been struggling quite a bit in recent games, as he hasn’t posted 40+ DK points since 11/11. With that being said, Adebayo’s locked into big minutes, and he comes with triple-double upside. He gets a plus matchup against the Chicago Bulls tonight, as well. Mo Bamba, Deandre Ayton, and Rudy Gobert are all interesting options at center on this slate.

 

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