Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/26)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/26)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

Once again, Malcolm Brogdon’s underpriced because of a few bad games. He saw limited minutes in a few blowouts before scoring 44.75 DK points in 46 minutes in an overtime game against the Los Angeles Lakers. Brogdon gets a solid matchup against the Toronto Raptors tonight, and he’s simply mispriced for his versatility and potential with full minutes. I have Ja Morant listed as a “Safe GPP” option, although I do believe he can currently be considered in cash games on this slate. He’s scored 44+ DK points in 8 of his last 9 games, flashing 60 DK point upside. Morant gets a solid matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, although he’s clearly behind Brogdon with the price difference at the moment. Dejounte Murray and Jalen Suggs make great options here, as well.

Patrick Beverley’s already been ruled out tonight, opening up plenty of minutes for Malik Beasley. He scored 39.25 DK points in 38 minutes after Beverley was injured in their last game. Although we shouldn’t consistently expect that kind of production from Beasley, he gets a great matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, who’ve struggled against shooting guards throughout the season. Beasley’s far too cheap for his new role, and he’s an elite salary relief option in all leagues tonight. Terry Rozier’s quietly taken a step forward in the offense in his last couple of games. He’s scored 53.25 and 48 DK points in those contests, posting 27+ points in each game. He’s playing in one of the better game environments on the slate, as well. D’Angelo Russell is another solid option on this slate.

GPP

Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard will face off in a matchup between two of the best scoring point guards in the NBA. Each has shown tremendous flashes in recent games, although they haven’t been overly consistent. Still, in a showcase between two dominant scorers, we could see an elite ceiling game from either of them. De’Aaron Fox’s been struggling a bit in recent games, although he’s flashed an elite ceiling throughout the season. He gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, who’ve struggled against point guards throughout the season. Fox is the definition of a boom or bust option on this slate. Trae Young, Mike Conley, and Jrue Holiday are great options at point guard as well.

Anthony Edwards is coming off of a ridiculous 69.5 DK point performance, and he gets an elite matchup against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. He’s an outstanding scorer, who can contribute at some level in each of the five categories. Edwards can be considered in cash games (especially at small forward), although I slightly prefer him in GPPs for his price tag. Donovan Mitchell’s recent struggles have dropped his price tag far too low at this point. He’s a high-upside option, especially in a solid matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. He boasts 50+ DK point upside, and this is the type of matchup Mitchell could hit his scoring ceiling in. Zach LaVine, Derrick White, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Aaron Wiggins are all interesting options for varying price tags at shooting guard.

Forward

Cash

Josh Giddey’s playing a larger role in the Oklahoma City Thunder offense with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out. The latter will miss the game tonight, leaving Giddey to continue his current role. He’s scored 30+ DK points in 6 consecutive games, scoring 38.25 and 40.25 DK points in his last 2 games. He’s a triple-double threat, and he’s one of the top cash game options on this slate. After struggling in a pair of games against the Milwaukee Bucks, Franz Wagner’s price tag dipped far too low. He bounced back with 31.75 DK points in his last game, and he was consistently producing prior to those blowouts against the Bucks. He’s playing a big role in the Orlando Magic rotation, and Wagner can be used in all leagues tonight. Miles Bridges, Harrison Barnes, and Brandon Ingram can be considered for this position as well.

Wendell Carter Jr. is projecting as the top power forward on this slate and for good reason. He comes with a surprisingly low price tag, although he’s coming off of a 36.75 DK point performance. Carter’s playing solid minutes for the Orlando Magic, and he’s been enjoying a good season. He’s simply far too cheap at this point, even if this isn’t the best matchup against the Chicago Bulls. Brandon Clarke isn’t projecting for a ton of ownership at the moment, although he’s a player I’d consider here. He’s averaging 22.6 DK points in only 20.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s also scored 20+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, flashing 30 DK point upside. Clarke’s price tag represents his limited minutes rather than his success in that time.

GPP

Lu Dort’s taken on a surprising role in the offense for the Oklahoma City Thunder this season. He’s an extra efficient shot-taker, and he’s coming off of a 38.75 DK point performance. Although he hasn’t always found success without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup, he’s absurdly cheap on this slate. Dort can be considered in cash games, although I slightly prefer him in GPPs. Norman Powell’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, and his price tag doesn’t truly represent that. He’s extremely reliant on scoring, which makes him a risky option, but he does get a plus matchup against the Golden State Warriors tonight. He comes with more than enough upside to pay off his price tag. Jayson Tatum, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Kevin Huerter can also be considered at small forward.

DeMar DeRozan’s been enjoying an elite season as the Chicago Bulls power forward. He’s flashed tremendous scoring upside with the ability to add rebounds and assists on a nightly basis. Although he hasn’t been overly consistent in recent games, DeRozan gets an elite matchup against the Orlando Magic tonight. They’ve struggled against power forwards throughout the season, and he boasts tremendous upside. Jaren Jackson Jr. is another high upside power forward. He’s seen inconsistent minutes throughout the season, and Jackson posted 46 DK points in his last game with 30+ minutes. He’s been better at home in 2021, and he’s a high-ceiling player on this slate. Domantas Sabonis, Kyle Kuzma, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are three more great options on this slate.

Center

Cash

There are several outstanding options at center tonight, although one stands above the rest. If Nikola Jokic is starting, he’s an elite option in all leagues. His price is dropping because of his injury, but he’s arguably the best fantasy option in the NBA when healthy. Karl-Anthony Towns is another great option for a high price tag. He gets an elite matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, who’ve consistently struggled against centers throughout the season. Towns boasts as much pure upside as nearly anyone on the slate, and he’s an outstanding option in all leagues. Mo Bamba and Rudy Gobert are two other centers I’d consider in cash games on this large of a slate.

GPP

Clint Capela’s seen mixed results, as he isn’t an overly dominant offensive player. With that being said, he gets a great matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, who’ve struggled against centers throughout the season. Capela’s inability to create his own offense is the only reason I listed him in my GPP pool rather than cash games. Jakob Poeltl’s a bit too cheap for his role in the San Antonio Spurs rotation. He’s an outstanding shot-blocker with double-double potential. Poeltl also gets a solid matchup against the Boston Celtics on this slate. Other centers to consider in GPPs include Jusuf Nurkic and Precious Achiuwa.

 

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