Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/12)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/12)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

With 11 games tonight, this slate is relatively wide open. There are several options that can be considered in cash games and tournaments at each position. Patrick Beverley is locked into 30+ minutes each night for the Minnesota Wolves. Even with D’Angelo Russell back, Beverley’s performed well, recording 24.5 and 24.75 DK points in his last 2 games. De’Anthony Melton should find 30+ minutes with Desmond Bane ruled out tonight. He’s seen 30+ minutes in each of his last 2 games, scoring 29.5 and 33.25 DK points. Melton’s looked elite on a per-minute basis this season, and he’s far too cheap for his upside on this slate. Dennis Schroder’s been playing well without Jaylen Brown in the lineup, and he gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who’ve struggled against scoring point guards this season. Ricky Rubio and Darius Garland are interesting options, while George Hill can be considered if you need to save some salary.

You’re likely starting shooting guard with Zach Lavine tonight. He’s looked outstanding this season, and he’s surprisingly cheap. LaVine’s scored 40+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 games, and he could play a slightly bigger role in the offense with Nikola Vucevic out. If you need to save some salary here, Josh Richardson makes an outstanding option. He’s played 30+ minutes in each of his last 2 games, scoring 28.25 and 22.5 DK points in those games. Richardson’s near the minimum price tonight, which is one of the most surprising prices on this slate. Cedi Osman’s another interesting cheap option who is expected to play upwards of 30 minutes tonight. Richardson should take priority over him, though. Lu Dort can also be considered here.

GPP

Lonzo Ball comes with triple-double upside, and he gets a plus matchup against the Golden State Warriors tonight. He’s taking a surprising amount of three-pointers this season, and Ball could see more opportunities without Nikola Vucevic in the offense. Cade Cunningham’s finally finding his footing in the NBA, scoring 35+ DK points in 2 of his last 3 games. He also gets a great matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who’ve struggled against point guards in 2021. The Sacramento Kings have struggled against scoring guards throughout the season, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite option in the Oklahoma City Thunder offense. He’s a bit pricey at this point, but SGA comes with tremendous upside. D’Angelo Russell, Jrue Holiday, De’Aaron Fox, and LaMelo Ball can all be considered in tournaments on this slate.

There are several players listed above that are available at shooting guard, as well. Alex Caruso is a cheap option, who’s flashed upside in recent games. If the Chicago Bulls opt to run a small lineup tonight, Caruso could see extended minutes. Josh Giddey’s flashed triple-double upside early in his career. He bosts 45+ DK point upside, and he gets a great matchup against a weak Sacramento Kings defense tonight. Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart can also be considered in GPPs tonight.

Forward

Cash

Although I outlined Josh Giddey in the GPP slot for shooting guard, I feel okay playing him in cash games at small forward. This is a relatively weak position on this slate, and you may just want to save some salary here. Kyle Anderson isn’t locked into big minutes, but he’s found plenty of success on a per-minute basis. He’s scored 26.75 and 36.25 DK points in his last 2 games, and he’s a reasonable option in a solid matchup against the Phoenix Suns. If you’re spending up, Harrison Barnes makes an interesting option. He gets a plus matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who’ve struggled against power forwards throughout the season. He’s priced up, but he’s a consistent option at arguably the weakest position on this slate. Will Barton can also be considered in cash games, although he’ll lose a bit of value with Nikola Jokic back.

There are a plethora of ways you can go in cash games at power forward. Arguably the most mispriced option immediately sticks out as Kristaps Porzingis. He’s expected to play 30+ minutes for the Dallas Mavericks, and he’s far too talented for this pricing tier if he’s playing full minutes. You can also consider paying up for either Anthony Davis or Giannis Antetokounmpo, who both get great matchups on this slate. I slightly prefer the savings with Davis at the moment, although you may not need them with several great salary relief options tonight. DeMar DeRozan could see extra opportunities with Nikola Vucevic out, and he’s been enjoying an elite season at power forward for the Chicago Bulls. If Steven Adams is out, Jaren Jackson Jr. can be considered in cash games. Bobby Portis is another mid-priced option that can be used, as well.

GPP

There aren’t many players I’m adding to my small forward pool for tournaments that aren’t listed somewhere above in this article. Dean Wade and Jeff Green are cheap options that should see minutes, although they lack the pure upside to make great tournament options. Evan Fournier’s been extremely inconsistent throughout the season, although he comes with plenty of scoring upside in this matchup. Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, and Miles Bridges are three more expensive options that can be considered, although they’re far from the best plays overall on this slate.

Evan Mobley should be locked into big minutes with Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love out. He can contribute in each of the five categories, and he boasts elite upside in a great matchup against an undersized Detroit Pistons team. Thad Young’s seen bigger minutes with Jakob Poeltl out, and he’s flashed tremendous per-minute production. He’s posted 28+ DK points in each of his last 3 games, and he’s coming off of a 37.5 DK point performance. He’s expected to find minutes in the mid-20s against a weaker Dallas Mavericks frontcourt tonight. Robert Covington and Jerami Grant are interesting options in tournaments tonight, as well.

Center

Cash

With Nikola Vucevic injured, Tony Bradley makes one of the best salary relief options on the slate. He’s only expected to play around 20 minutes tonight, but he’s averaging nearly 1 DK point per minute on the season, and Bradley is near the minimum price. He’s a great option in all leagues tonight. Jarrett Allen’s another center I’m interested in prioritizing tonight. He’s averaging 45.8 DK points per game over his last 4 games, and he’s locked into a big role without Lauri Markkanen or Kevin Love playing. Allen also gets an elite matchup against an undersized Detroit Pistons team. Nikola Jokic’s returning from his suspension, and he’s been elite throughout the season. The offense will completely run through him without Michael Porter Jr. playing. Isaiah Stewart should be locked into big minutes with Kelly Olynyk injured, and he can be used as a salary relief option in all leagues tonight.

GPP

With Deandre Ayton doubtful tonight, JaVale McGee and Frank Kaminsky can be considered, although I prefer them in GPPs. After struggling with fouls in an elite matchup against the Sacramento Kings, Kaminsky posted 46.75 DK points against the Portland Blazers. He’s far too cheap for his upside in a bigger role for the Phoenix Suns. The Charlotte Hornets struggle against opposing bigs, and Julius Randle is one of the best in the NBA. He’s a double-double threat with tremendous scoring upside, especially in this type of matchup. Robert Williams, Jusuf Nufkic, Jonas Valanciunas, and Christian Wood can all be considered here on this slate.

 

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