Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (11/1)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.
| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | C. Boucher | A. Drummond | POR/PHI |
| C. Sexton | T. Harris | N. Jokic | WAS/ATL |
| S. Curry | J. Giddey | M. Bamba | CLE/CHA |
| D. Melton | W. Carter | J. Collins | SA/IND |
| D. Murray | P. George | D. Sabonis | ORL/MIN |
*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Guards
Cash
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to see a featured role in the Oklahoma City Thunder offense, and he gets an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They’ve struggled against scoring guards this season, and SGA leads the NBA in drive points (13) per game. He’s also 7 three-point attempts per game in 2021. If you can spend up at this position, Trae Young makes a great option against the Washington Wizards. He recently posted 45 DK points against them, shooting 35.3% from the field. Young carries significantly more upside than that, although his price tag doesn’t represent his ceiling at this point. Derrick White and Reggie Jackson are priced around $6k tonight, and both can be considered in their matchups. They boast large roles in their respective rotations, although neither’s been overly consistent this season. If you need a punt option, Dalano Banton is expected to play around 20 minutes tonight. He’ll open up quite a bit for roster construction, although you likely won’t need his salary relief on this slate.
Shooting guard isn’t the safest option on this slate. Collin Sexton’s been a boom or bust option for the Cleveland Cavaliers, although he gets an elite matchup against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. They’ve struggled against scoring shooting guards, and Sexton posted 43 DK points against them in their only matchup. He may not have as large of a role as in that game due to injuries, though. CJ McCollum can also be considered here. He’s scored 37+ DK points in 5 of his 6 games, flashing near 60 DK point upside. McCollum gets a tougher matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, although they’ll be without defensive anchor Joel Embiid, making the matchup significantly easier.
GPP
De’Anthony Melton is a player that sticks out as mispriced on this slate. Excluding his terrible game against the Portland Blazers, he’s averaging 33.4 DK points per game, including 40.25 and 32 DK points in his last 2 games. Melton’s been significantly better at home (small sample size) this season, and he makes an elite option on this slate. Dejounte Murray is one of my favorite plays on the slate. He’s playing at an elite level, averaging 56.9 DK points per game over his last 3 games. Murray also gets an elite matchup against a bad Indiana Pacers defense. He’s my favorite spend-up at this position, although Young looks as if he’s going to be chalkier at the moment. LaMelo Ball, Dennis Schroder, Tyrese Maxey, and Shake Milton can all be considered here, as well.
Zach LaVine isn’t the safest option, but he makes an outstanding tournament play tonight. He’s the top scoring option for the Chicago Bulls, and he gets a matchup against the Boston Celtics, who have struggled against scoring shooting guards this season. Seth Curry could take on a larger role for the Philadephia 76ers with Joel Embiid out tonight. He’s already posted 36 and 41.75 DK points this season, flashing elite upside for his current price tag. Chris Duarte continues to be underpriced, although it’s dependent on some injury news tonight. Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert are both questionable. If they both play, Duarte will lose quite a bit of value. D’Angelo Russell, Jaylen Brown, and Terance Mann can also be considered at shooting.
Forward
Cash
Small forward is arguably the worst position on this slate. There isn’t anyone that sticks out as a lock in cash games at the moment. I have Josh Giddey listed as a “Safe GPP” option, but I’d be willing to use him in cash games. He’s playing well as a rookie, averaging 34.9 DK points per game over his last 4 games. He’ll continue to play big minutes for the Oklahoma City Thunder in a solid matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers. On the other side, Paul George can be considered if you can get to his price tag. Oklahoma City doesn’t boast anyone that can slow him down, and he’s been elite without Kawhi Leonard early this season. With Kevin Love ruled out, Lauri Markkanen turns into an outstanding option for a low price tag. He’s flashed for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he should see 30+ minutes between small and power forward in this game.
There are likely two chalky options at this position tonight. The first is Tobias Harris, who will be the focal point of the Philadelphia 76ers offense with Joel Embiid out. He isn’t truly priced down at this point, although he still makes an outstanding option. We need to wait on more news from the Toronto Raptors, but Chris Boucher should see a significantly larger role with Scott Barnes out of the lineup. He’s always been an elite per-minute player, and if he’s getting 25+ minutes, he can be locked into all leagues. That’s likely the pool you’re choosing from at this position, as they’re extremely obvious compared to other options. You can consider Evan Mobley with the Love news, although he’s clearly the third option behind Harris and Boucher.
GPP
Michael Porter Jr. continues to get some buzz in terms of ownership, but he’s a player that I strictly want to use in GPPs rather than cash games. He looked great early this season, although the upside is clear. He also gets a great matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Gary Trent should be locked into big minutes for the Toronto Raptors with Scottie Barnes unlikely to play. He could take on a large role in the offense, and Trent’s already looked great early this season. He’s an outstanding option, and he can be considered in cash games at such a weak position, as well. Miles Bridges and Gordon Hayward are interesting options here, as well. I slightly prefer Bridges, who’s been slightly safer this season. Still, both can be used in tournaments in a great matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. You can also consider RJ Barrett, Desmond Bane, and Will Barton here.
There are several great tournament options at power forward, starting with Wendell Carter Jr. He only played 17 minutes in the Orlando Magic’s last game, but he posted 37.5 and 39.5 DK points in his 2 games prior to that. OG Anunoby is another Toronto player that will benefit from the absence of Barnes, as he could find more rebounding and scoring opportunities. He’s flashed 45+ DK point upside this season, and he makes a solid option tonight. Javonte Green’s an interesting salary relief option with Patrick Williams injured. He isn’t a dominant fantasy option, but he should see 20-25 minutes tonight. Green’s flashed the ability to exceed value in that time, and he can be used if you’re in a tough spot with salary tonight. DeMar DeRozan, Julius Randle, Jayson Tatum, Kyle Kuzma, and Franz Wagner can all be considered here, as well.
Center
Cash
Center is likely the easiest position tonight. Andre Drummond will be the highest-owned player on the entire slate with Joel Embiid out. He’s averaging 1.45 DK points per minute this season, and Drummond could see around 30 minutes tonight. Don’t overthink this play. If you’re looking to run multiple centers in cash games, the other option is Nikola Jokic. He’s been incredible when healthy, and he gets a great matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. This could end up being an extremely chalky pair in cash games but for good reason. They’re the best options at center by a wide margin tonight.
GPP
I’m continuing to play Mo Bamba in GPPs, as his price tag doesn’t represent his elite upside. Bamba also gets a great matchup against the Minnesota Wolves, who’ve struggled against centers throughout the season. The Washington Wizards have struggled against bigs throughout the season, and John Collins makes a high-upside option. He posted 48 DK points against them in their only matchup, and we could see another ceiling game from him tonight. Domantas Sabonis plays the majority of his minutes at power forward, which is a position the San Antonio Spurs struggle against. He isn’t going to come cheap, but Sabonis is an elite option on this slate. Robert Williams, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jarrett Allen can all be considered in GPPs tonight, while Isaiah Hartenstein in a minimum-priced GPP dart on this slate.
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