Bales’ NBA Game Theory (10/26)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (10/26)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

You have two elite options at the top of point guard tonight – Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry. Both players are in elite spots and make great options tonight. The Houston Rockets don’t feature anyone defensively that can slow Doncic down, while the Oklahoma City Thunder will likely use Lu Dort on Curry in this game. For that reason, Doncic gets the edge in cash games. Dejounte Murray’s looked great early this season, and he gets a solid matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ve quietly been pushing the pace and struggling defensively this season. Derrick White’s another guard for the San Antonio Spurs who continues to be a bit too cheap. Similar to Murray, he can be used in all leagues tonight.

Shooting guards a bit more open with White making one of the top options on this slate. He’s scored 30+ DK points in each of his 3 games, including 38 DK points in each of his last 2. Jalen Brunson is better suited for GPPs, but he’s in play for cash games because of the slate. He’s playing minutes in the 20s, and he’s performed well in that time this season. Brunson’s one of the better salary relief options tonight. Lu Dort is another reasonable option, as he’ll be locked into big minutes to guard Curry tonight. He’s scored 20+ DK points in each of his 3 games this season, and he’s still priced under $5k on DraftKings.

GPP

With Luka Doncic garnering the ownership, Stephen Curry makes an elite pivot off of him. He’s been playing at one of the highest levels in the NBA, and he comes with as much upside as anyone on this slate. Russell Westbrook isn’t the focal point of the Los Angeles Lakers offense like he’s been for other teams in years past, but he still comes with plenty of upside at only $9k. He’s a solid tournament option tonight. Mike Conley’s playing big minutes for the Utah Jazz, and he’s a high upside option. He gets a decent matchup against the Denver Nuggets, and Conley’s a bit underpriced at $5.7k. If you need to save some salary here, Damion Lee makes an interesting option. He’s playing solid minutes for the Golden State Warriors, and he’s averaging slightly under 10 FGA per game this season. Lee relies heavily on scoring, though, which makes him a risky option.

Jordan Poole’s an outstanding option on this slate. He’s surprisingly cheap, but he’s playing a massive role in the Golden State offense. Similar to Lee, Poole relies heavily on scoring, although he can add a few peripheral stats, as well. If Dort is guarding Curry, Poole could see an even bigger role tonight, as well. Donovan Mitchell only played big minutes in one game this season, scoring 43.75 DK points. He’s the focal point of the offense, and Mitchell could go overlooked on this slate. Andrew Wiggins and Devin Vassell are interesting tournament options on this slate.

 

Forward

Cash

Small forward is arguably the worst position on this slate, as there isn’t anyone that’s safe tonight. Michael Porter Jr. sticks out once again, although he’s somewhat disappointed early this season. Still, he’s far too cheap for his pure talent and upside. LeBron James is a safer option, although that’s purely in terms of floor rather than for his price tag. R.J. Barrett is the only other option I’m considering here at the moment. He should be locked into 30+ minutes in this matchup, and he’s still well under $6k. This is an awful matchup, though, adding to his risk. If this weren’t such a terrible position, he’d be strictly a GPP option.

My top option at power forward is Keldon Johnson, who is grossly underpriced for his new role in the San Antonio Spurs rotation. He’s seen 18 shot attempts in each of his last 2 games, and he’ll see a pace-up matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. Kristaps Porzingis is another solid option in cash games. He’s never overly consistent, but he’s playing a big role in the Dallas Mavericks offense. Most importantly, Porzingis gets a matchup against the Houston Rockets, who don’t feature anyone that will be able to slow him down tonight.

GPP

One of the top salary relief options at small forward is Doug McDermott tonight. He’s a pure scorer, and he’s coming off of a 36.5 DK point performance. He’s also played 30+ minutes in each of his last 2 games, and he could see that again tonight. Lonnie Walker is another small forward eligible scorer for San Antonio who is a bit too cheap for this slate. Evan Fournier, Will Barton, and Bojan Bogdanovic are three options that I’m willing to consider here in GPPs tonight, as well. Each brings plenty of upside to the table for their price tags, although they also come with quite a bit of risk.

It’s impossible to emphasize how great Julius Randle’s fantasy upside is at this point in his career. He shot 33.3% from the field in his last game but still scored 68 DK points. The matchup will keep his ownership low, but he’s a great option in tournaments. Darius Bazley is a player that could garner some ownership, and I believe there’s some merit to considering him in cash games. With that being said, he’s a clear play behind Keldon Johnson for me, which is why I’m listing him in the GPP section. Still, Bazley should get some center minutes along with time at power forward. As always, Anthony Davis, who’s performed extremely well early this season, is in play for GPPs. The San Antonio Spurs don’t have anyone that can guard him defensively, and his price tag is still a bit low with the “Big Three” sharing duties in Los Angeles. Tobias Harris is also an outstanding tournament option, as he continues to be locked into big minutes for the Philadelphia 76ers. His price tag is just a bit high at this point, although that may not matter on this size of a slate.

 

Center

Cash

Assuming he’s starting, Joel Embiid is the obvious cash option at center tonight. He’s performed well for the Philadelphia 76ers, and the New York Knicks don’t have anyone that will be able to guard him. If you need to save some salary here, you’re likely going down to Dwight Powell. He’s priced under $3.5k, and he’s playing 20-25 minutes for the Dallas Mavericks. It’s a limited slate, so getting minutes for a cheap price tag is a viable option in cash games. Jakob Poeltl continues to be too cheap, and he’s playing 30+ minutes for the San Antonio Spurs. He’s found success on a per-minute basis throughout his career, and he’ll be a solid cash game option until his price tag breaks $6k.

GPP

Nikola Jokic could garner some ownership tonight, but I have him listed as a “Safe GPP” option because I prefer Joel Embiid in cash. Jokic is an extremely versatile option with triple-double and 20/20 potential. On the other side, Rudy Gobert also boasts 20/20 potential, and he’s a solid tournament option. Christian Wood comes with elite upside, and there isn’t anyone on the Dallas Mavericks that can match his skillset tonight. One of the higher-risk options is Draymond Green, who gets an elite matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. With that being said, he’s been relatively passive this season. He boasts triple-double upside, though, and Green is a high upside option, even if I don’t love his price tag. The final option I’m considering is Mitchell Robinson, who comes with as much upside as anyone at his price tag. The big issue is he could immediately get into foul trouble against Embiid and play limited minutes. It’s the main reason he’s strictly a deep GPP play tonight.

 

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