Bales’ NBA Game Theory (10/25)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (10/25)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards

Cash

This slate is relatively wide open, which is great for us. That could change quickly, though, making it a great night to get into our free Discord or grab our Core Plays (which includes our premium chat and projections). James Harden is a top option in cash at point guard tonight. He hasn’t been overly successful (in terms of fantasy) early this season, although he’s always in play under $10k. He also gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards in a game that projects for plenty of scoring. Devonte’ Graham is locked into solid minutes for the New Orleans Pelicans, and he’s far too cheap on this slate. He’s coming off of a bad game against the Minnesota Wolves, but he’s a great option if you need to save some salary at guard. Finally, Damian Lillard is an elite GPP option, but I also like him in cash games. The Los Angeles Clippers have struggled against point guards, and Lillard’s struggled early this season. It’s only a matter of time before we see his true ceiling.

DraftKings more appropriately priced Chris Duarte tonight, but he’s still too cheap. Through 3 games, the rookie posted 29+ DK points in every game while flashing 40 DK point upside. He’s also played 40+ minutes twice. If you have the salary to spend up, Bradley Beal is playing in what should be the best game environment tonight. He’s an elite option as the focal point of the Washington Wizards team. CJ McCollum and Anthony Edwards have both gotten off to elite starts, and they are still underpriced at the moment. Either can be used in cash games, although I slightly prefer McCollum, who ranks as a 1A to Edwards’ 1B at the moment.

GPP

Once again, Damian Lillard is one of my favorite GPP options on this slate, as well. Malcolm Brogdon’s posted 45+ DK points in each of his 3 games this season, topping out at 55.5 DK points. He’s far too cheap for his current role with Caris LeVert out, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate. With Terry Rozier out, LaMelo Ball is an elite option. He scored 59.25 DK points without Rozier earlier this season then posted 34.25 DK points without him yesterday, although he didn’t play the fourth quarter of that game. Marcus Smart, Ricky Rubio, and Spencer Dinwiddie are two outstanding options depending on injury news tonight. Quite a bit of this slate is dependent on that, although each affected above can be considered in GPPs even if Beal and Jaylen Brown are playing. D’Angelo Russell, Cole Anthony, and Collin Sexton can be considered in tournaments, as well.

Fred VanVleet’s gotten off to a terrible start this season, although he still boasts plenty of upside. He gets a plus matchup on this slate, making him an outstanding GPP option. On the other side, Zach LaVine comes with elite upside because of his scoring potential, and he’s generally a tournament option (at worst). Tonight is no different. With Norman Powell injured, Anfernee Simons is expected to see bigger minutes, and he’s an outstanding salary relief option. Quite frankly, I may move him to cash game viable before lock, but for now, he’s in my GPP pool. There isn’t a ton I love at shooting guard that I have outlined, although a few salary relief options stick out as viable. That list includes Jeremy Lamb, Grayson Allen, Frank Jackson, and Terance Mann. 

 

Forward

Cash

Michael Porter Jr. is coming off of a terrible game for the Denver Nuggets, and he hasn’t had as big of a role as many have expected at this point. Still, he’s far too cheap, especially for a matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Brandon Ingram’s taken on a massive role for the New Orleans Pelicans without Zion Williamson, and he gets a rematch against the Minnesota Wolves, who he just scored 43.5 DK points against. Franz Wagner is locked into 30+ minutes for the Orlando Magic, and he’s posted 20+ DK points in each of his games. Although I have him listed as a “Safe GPP” play, I also think he can be considered as a salary relief option in GPPs. If you can get to Kevin Durant’s price tag, he’s an outstanding option against the Washington Wizards. Khris Middleton can also be considered here. The final option here is Nassir Little, who’s gotten great reviews in the offseason and should play bigger minutes with Norman Powell injured.

At power forward, you’re looking to lock in Giannis Antetokounmpo in a great matchup against the Indiana Pacers. He’s struggled a bit in his last 2 games, although he posted 66 DK points in his first game of the season. Jayson Tatum is another high-priced option that can be considered here, especially if Jaylen Brown is out tonight. Jerami Grant’s a mid-price option that can be considered, although I prefer him in GPPs. This position just isn’t overly deep at the moment for cash games. Jaden McDaniels is in a similar spot, where he can be considered because of his minutes and price, but he’s far from a great cash game option tonight.

GPP

Once again we have a slate where Paul George makes an elite option. He’s priced slightly below Durant and above Tatum, suggesting he’ll come with absurdly low ownership. He’s been elite with Kawhi Leonard, though, and that isn’t likely to change in this game environment tonight. Gordon Hayward could garner some ownership tonight, but I don’t trust him in cash games. Instead, I’d prefer him in GPPs on this slate. Jordan Nwora’s also an outstanding option, but he could lose some of his appeal if Bobby Portis (who would make a great option if playing) is able to suit up. OG Anunoby’s breakout is on the way, but he’s a bit too risky for cash games at the moment. Still, he’s a great GPP option on this slate. Terrence Ross and Nicolas Batum are solid salary relief options in tournaments.

There isn’t a lot I love here that hasn’t already been listed somewhere in this article. The most obvious play is Domantas Sabonis, who boasts elite upside. The ownership will go to Antetokounmpo, giving Sabonis an edge in GPPs. Evan Mobley’s looked outstanding early in his career, as well, and he’s a solid tournament option on this slate.

 

Center

Cash

Center’s dependent on injury news tonight. Robert Williams saw a massive downtick in production when Al Horford returned. The latter is questionable tonight, though, and if he’s out, Williams can be locked in. Karl-Anthony Towns struggled against the New Orleans Pelicans in his last game, fouling out in 29 minutes. He’s an elite option tonight, though, as I’m not worried about their defense. On the other side, Jonas Valanciunas is a great option, as he looked dominant in that game. I expect much of the same. He should feature lower ownership, though, making him a “Safe GPP” option, as well.

GPP

I’ve been relatively consistently using Mo Bamba this season. He’s locked into solid minutes and a big role in the Orlando Magic offense. Bamba could struggle with fouls in this game, but the pure upside is elite for his price tag. On the other side of this game, Bam Adebayo can be considered. He’s performed well early this season, and I expect him to be able to perform well against Bamba, who’s still early in his NBA career. Nikola Jokic is always in play, and tonight is no different. He’s a triple-double threat with 20/20 (or better) upside on any given night. Precious Achiuwa’s minutes aren’t guaranteed, especially against a big like Nikola Vucevic, but he comes with elite upside when given the time. He posted 40 DK points in only 25 minutes the other night, and he’s still price tag only $4.5k. Achiuwa comes with quite a bit of risk, but he has the ability to break a slate. Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Vucevic are other solid tournament options at this position.

 

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