Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (10/22)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.
| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | S. Barnes | C. Wood | IND/WAS |
| J. Harden | D. Sabonis | N. Jokic | BKN/PHI |
| J. Green | T. Harris | J. Embiid | UTA/SAC |
| M. Brogdon | J. Giddey | R. Williams | NO/CHI |
| B. Beal | J. Tatum | M. Bamba | OKC/HOU |
*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Guards
Cash
Cash games are going to start with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who could end up being the chalkiest player on the slate. He gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets, who project to be one of the NBA’s worst defenses. SGA is also the alpha for Oklahoma City. James Harden continues to be underpriced for the Brooklyn Nets without Kyrie Irving. He’s a focal point with Kevin Durant, and he’s always viable in cash games with a price tag under $10k. Malcolm Brogdon saw a league-high 22 potential assists in his first game, playing 40 minutes after being questionable. He gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards, as well. Brogdon is going overlooked, but he’s viable in cash games tonight. Fred VanVleet, Dejounte Murray, and Spencer Dinwiddie can be considered in cash games tonight, as well.
The top shooting guards in cash games tonight are rookies. Jalen Green is playing a massive role early in the season for the Houston Rockets, and he gets a great matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He’s one of the top candidates for Rookie of the Year, and Green’s price tag isn’t going to stay this low for long. Jalen Suggs struggled in his first game, but the minutes are there. He’s a versatile option that boasts the ability to take over games. There will be growing pains for him early in his career, but Suggs is far too cheap for his talent.
GPP
Point guard’s interesting in tournaments tonight because you know where most of the chalk is going with SGA and Harden. Once again, I’m posting Malcolm Brogdon here because he’s an elite option in GPPs if you can’t get to him in cash games. Terry Rozier is expected to return tonight, which could push people off of LaMelo Ball. He’ll make an elite tournament option, as Charlotte is his team now, and he’s only going to continue progressing, regardless of Rozier. Tyrese Maxey will continue to play with Ben Simmons missing time. Similar to Ball, he’s a young player who’s progressing. He also boasts quiet upside for his price tag. Russell Westbrook is an ugly pick that most will scoff at after struggling in his first game. He owns elite upside, though, and you’re getting him at a massive discount. I expect the Los Angeles Lakers Big 3 to rotate who finds success on any given night, making Westbrook an elite GPP option. Lonzo Ball, Mike Conley, and Davion Mitchell can all be considered for varying price tags.
Bradley Beal is my favorite GPP option at shooting guard. I feel he can be used in cash games, but there are better higher-priced options tonight. He gets a matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who struggled against LaMelo Ball in their opener, and Beal comes with elite upside. Donovan Mitchell is another high-priced option, who is seemingly going overlooked tonight. He gets a great matchup against the Sacramento Kings, and he boasts tremendous upside in this matchup. It’s clear that Zach LaVine is the focal point of the Chicago Bulls, as many expected entering the season. He’s only $8k, and this price should be at least $1k higher in a couple of weeks. For the time being, we can take advantage of the matchup tonight. Derrick White’s another option that can be considered here tonight.
NOTE: Bradley Beal is trending toward not playing tonight. That will open up plenty of value on the Washington Wizards.
Forward
Cash
Small forward could be spread out a bit in cash games tonight, although Scottie Barnes is the most obvious option. He started for the Toronto Raptors, is likely to start again, and still comes with a surprisingly low price tag. Kevin Durant is in the same position as Harden where he’s simply too cheap. There’s no reason he should be under $10k, especially after scoring nearly 60 DK points in his first game this season. If you need to save salary here, Josh Giddey is viable in cash games. He’s far too cheap for getting 30 minutes in an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets. Finally, Michael Porter Jr. can be considered, as he’s coming off of a solid game to start the season. He could see a massive step forward, yet his price tag is priced as if that won’t be the case. He’ll benefit from Jamal Murray being out, as well, as he’ll be a larger focal point of the offense.
Power forward is essentially a two-man race at the moment, although one sticks out well above the other for me. Domantas Sabonis scored 55.25 DK points in his first game of the season, and he’s priced at $9k tonight. He gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards, and I’m expecting him to post 50+ DK points once again. He isn’t going to be cheap, but he’s a top option on this slate. If you can’t get to his price, Tobias Harris is a bit too cheap without Ben Simmons in the lineup. He posted 20 points with 12 rebounds in only 28 minutes against the New Orleans Pelicans, and he should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight. He’s an elite option for a surprisingly low price tag tonight.
GPP
It’s tough to get away from Jayson Tatum early this season. I’m expecting a massive season (potentially MVP talks?), yet he isn’t priced nearly high enough at the moment. He shot 23.3% from the field and 13.3% from deep against the New York Knicks, yet he still scored 44.75 DK points. It was a double-OT game, but the volume is there. His teammate, Jaylen Brown, is coming off of a ridiculous 76.25 DK point performance, and he can be considered. For what it’s worth, I prefer Tatum of the duo. Brandon Ingram’s another high upside option for a reasonable price tag and a solid matchup against the Chicago Bulls. LeBron James, RJ Barrett, and OG Anunoby make great options here, as well.
The most obvious GPP option at power forward is Julius Randle. He’s coming off of a 62.5 DK point performance, and he’s the focal point of the New York Knicks team. He also gets a plus matchup against the Orlando Magic. Evan Mobley looks locked into big minutes for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he performed well in his first game. He’s priced up over $6k tonight, keeping his ownership down. He isn’t safe enough for cash games, but he’s an outstanding tournament option. Kyle Kuzma is another player with a new role this season, as he’s playing big minutes for the Washington Wizards. I’d expect that to continue, and his price tag doesn’t represent that new role. Kuzma burned a lot of people all of last season, but he’s a great option on this slate. Franz Wagner, Gordon Hayward, and Keldon Johnson are three more options I’d consider here.
Center
Cash
There are three centers that stick on in cash on this slate. The top is Christian Wood, who struggled quite a bit in the Houston Rockets’ first game. Still, he flashed a solid floor, and he gets an elite matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who struggled mightily against Rudy Gobert in their first game this season. Nikola Jokic isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s locked into a massive role for the Denver Nuggets. He’ll continue to make an outstanding option with Jamal Murray injured. Nikola Vucevic scored 40 DK points while shooting 33.3% from the field in the Chicago Bulls’ first game. He’s an outstanding option for under $8k tonight.
GPP
With the chalk likely to be relatively condensed at this position, there are a few great tournament options. Robert Williams and Mo Bamba look to be locked into big minutes for their respective teams, and they both boast elite ceilings for their price tags. Joel Embiid only saw 26 minutes in his first game, and he should be locked into big minutes if he’s healthy tonight. The Brooklyn Nets don’t have anyone that can slow him down, making him a great option. Jakob Poeltl is playing big minutes for the San Antonio Spurs, and he’s an extremely versatile big man. DraftKings hasn’t caught up to his fantasy outlook in 30+ minutes, and he’s another outstanding option here. Jonas Valanciunas, Daniel Gafford, and Rudy Gobert are all great options tonight, as well.
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