Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (10/20)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.
| Guards | Forwards |
Centers | Game Stacks |
| T. Maxey | J. Jackson | E. Mobley | SAC/POR |
| S. Dinwiddie | O. Anunoby | N. Jokic | HOU/MIN |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | D. Bane | J. Poeltl | PHI/NO |
| J. Green | S. Barnes | J. Embiid | IND/CHA |
| D. Lillard | D. Sabonis | K. Towns | WAS/TOR |
*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.
Guards
Cash
This slate is so difficult because there are so many mispriced options that you can essentially play anyone you want. Ben Simmons was suspended for the Philadelphia 76ers’ first game, and Shake Milton’s been ruled out. Tyrese Maxey could be the highest-owned player on this slate, and he’s an elite option in all leagues. Spencer Dinwiddie is returning from injury, and he’s expected to play a major role in the Washington Wizards rotation. He posted a 17/5/3 line in 26 minutes in his final preseason game, and he’s another player who is close to a lock in cash games. If you’re looking to spend a bit more money here, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dejounte Murray are both outstanding options. They’re both young players who are expected to continue to see larger roles as they progress as focal points of their rotations. For what it’s worth, SGA is my preferred option of the two, as he’s drastically underpriced, although either can be used.
Shooting guard is arguably the most interesting position, as there isn’t one or two clear players that stand out above the rest. Jalen Green was the number two overall pick for a rebuilding Houston Rockets team, and I’d anticipate he immediately finds 30+ minutes tonight. For his price tag, he could be my favorite option, especially in cash. With Dillon Brooks out, De’Anthony Melton should be locked into decent minutes, and he’s consistently performed well on a per-minute basis throughout his career. Chris Duarte is another interesting rookie for an absurdly low price tag. He’ll benefit if Jeremy Lamb isn’t able to suit up tonight. Fred VanVleet, CJ McCollum, and Mikal Bridges are all options that can be considered in cash games at this position, as well.
GPP
With such obvious salary relief options at point guard, we’re going to have a few elite plays go overlooked. It starts with Damian Lillard, who’s the most expensive point guard on the slate. He gets an elite matchup against the Sacramento Kings, and Lillard is an elite option on this slate. On the other side of that game, De’Aaron Fox is also an elite option. He’s a bit cheaper, although he is priced up early in the season. RJ Barrett boasts point guard eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s an outstanding option for a surprisingly low price tag. I don’t love the matchup, though, keeping him from an easy plug-and-play. I’m also interested in considering Malcolm Brogdon, Kevin Porter Jr., and LaMelo Ball at this position tonight. Each of these three options comes with tremendous upside, although they’re also quite risky for their price tags.
The majority of shooting guard options that I’m considering are listed above, as they’re all projecting to split ownership at the moment. Keep in mind, you can get in our free Discord chat for all updated news and my thoughts closer to lock. Donovan Mitchell is another high upside guard that is likely to go overlooked because of the pricing on this slate. He’s an elite tournament option if you want to spend up at this position. Zach LaVine and Anthony Edwards are two more high upside options, although they come with quite a bit of risk with healthy rotations. I expect both to be plenty involved in their respective offenses, although I’m concerned others have the ability to take away from them early in the season.
Forward
Cash
The Toronto Raptors are the first place I’m looking for a small forward tonight. I’m expecting a massive season from OG Anunoby, as he continues to progress as a potential focal point of the Toronto Raptors’ future. Pascal Siakam’s been ruled out, leaving Anunoby to take over a larger offensive role tonight. Depending on the starting line, Scottie Barnes is entirely too cheap tonight. Like the majority of rookies on this slate, he’s far too cheap. I don’t necessarily love his immediate game for fantasy, but his price is difficult to overlook if he’s locked into big minutes. Desmond Bane’s coming off of a great, unexpected season. DraftKings opted to price him near the minimum with Dillon Brooks out, as well. If you’re looking to save salary at this position in cash games, Barnes and Bane are the top options.
We’re starting the season off with Jaren Jackson Jr. chalk. He was doing more in the preseason with the ball in his hands, and he’s one of the most mispriced options on the slate. It’s important to note that he’s struggled with fouls quite a bit throughout his career, although it may not matter for his current price tag. Precious Achiuwa looked outstanding on a per-minute basis for the Miami Heat last season, and he’s expected to take on an immediate role for the Toronto Raptors, especially with Siakam out. Achiuwa is only $100 above the minimum price, and if he gets 20+ minutes tonight, he should easily exceed value. If you’re looking to spend a bit more salary at this position, Jerami Grant is the go-to for cash games at the moment. He gets a plus matchup, and he’s seen great reviews throughout the offseason.
GPP
In tournaments, I’m still looking heavily at OG Anunoby, as he isn’t projecting for a ton of ownership. Once again, I’m expecting a massive year from him, and he starts with the perfect matchup. DeMar DeRozan is another interesting option, as he comes with tremendous upside for his price tag. Other high upside options for reasonable price tags on this slate include. Michael Porter and Brandon Ingram. They are simply too cheap for their ceilings, regardless of matchup. If you’re looking to save a bit of salary in GPPs, rookie Josh Giddey is in an interesting spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder. I was slightly surprised to see him listed solely as a small forward on this slate, but he’s an interesting option. Kyle Kuzma is projecting for some ownership, but I prefer him in tournaments rather than cash. He does come with plenty of upside, though, and I’m expecting a change in scenery to Washington will help him throughout the season.
With there being a few chalky options at power forward, that leaves the door open for elite plays to go overlooked, which is what I’m expecting tonight. Domantas Sabonis and Julius Randle are two of my favorite tournament options tonight. Sabonis is slightly better with his matchup, although Randle’s more drastically mispriced. They’re two of the highest upside options on the slate, and they will likely go under-owned in favor of significantly riskier options. Keldon Johnson is expected to take on a significantly larger role in the San Antonio Spurs offense, and he’s flashed when given the opportunity in the past. I expect him to take a step forward in 2021. Jaden McDaniels is far too cheap if he’s in the starting lineup for the Minnesota Wolves, especially in an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets. He isn’t a focal point, though, meaning he’s better suited for tournaments. Franz Wagner and Saddiq Bey can also be considered here.
Center
Cash
Center’s one of the hardest positions to project tonight, which tends to be the case on a nightly basis. Evan Mobley is the rookie that stands out, as he’s far too cheap. The sole question surrounding him is minutes, as the Cleveland Cavaliers have a crowded frontcourt with Jarrett Allen locked into minutes at center. Still, Mobley should see a sizeable role, making him a solid salary relief option. I currently prefer to spend up here, though, making Nikola Jokic an elite consideration. He’ll be the focal point of the offense with Jamal Murray hurt, and he’s consistently one of the safer options in the NBA. Jokic isn’t priced down like most of the other players, but he’ll add safety to your cash game lineups. Jakob Poeltl also performed extremely well last season, and he’s expected. tobe locked into a big role for the San Antonio Spurs. He’s a player that can be considered in cash games.
GPP
With ownership expected to shift toward Jokic at the top of center, Joel Embiid becomes an elite tournament option. He’s an emotional player who could be looking to put on a show with all of the drama surrounding teammate Ben Simmons. The New Orleans Pelicans also don’t have anyone that can guard him on their roster. Karl-Anthony Towns gets an elite matchup against a rebuilding Houston Rockets team, and he’s another elite tournament option at the top of this position. Mo Bamba and Robert Williams are two options that come with elite upside for their price tags. The issue is a lack of guaranteed minutes, which adds to their risk. Still, these are the exact type of plays we want to attack in GPPs. Jusuf Nurkic, Nikola Vucevic, and Daniel Gafford are other options that can be considered in tournaments at center tonight.
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