Bales’ NBA Game Theory (1/10)

Welcome to Bales’ NBA Game Theory (1/10)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

 

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Guards

Cash

This is an extremely interesting slate where there are several ways to go in cash games with only a few players sticking out above the rest. Dejounte Murray is taking on a massive role for the San Antonio Spurs with several players out. That will be the case again tonight, and he’s far too cheap being priced under $10k still. He’s the clear-cut top option at point guard. With that being said, the Utah Jazz are dealing with several players out of their rotation at the moment. Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, and Jordan Clarkson are all point guard eligible, and they each come with reasonable price tags.

There are two shooting guard options better than the rest tonight. Joshua Primo is playing bigger minutes with Derrick White and Tre Jones out, and he scored 19.25 DK points in his last game. While that’s far from an elite score, he shot 4-16 from the field. He’s still only $3.6k tonight. Anfernee Simons has completely taken over with Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Norman Powell out. He scored 45.25 DK points in his last game, and he recently flashed 60+ DK point upside. Simons gets a good matchup against the Brooklyn Nets tonight, and he boasts tremendous upside for his current price tag. You can also consider Bryn Forbes or Ben McLemore at this position if you need more salary relief.

GPP

LaMelo Ball makes one of the more interesting options on this slate. He gets a plus matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who will be without Jrue Holiday in this game. He’s coming off of a 45 DK point performance against them, recording one rebound and two assists shy of a triple-double. He isn’t going to come cheap, but his price tag will keep people off of him. Rajon Rondo’s playing a surprising role in the Cleveland Cavaliers rotation, posting 26.25 DK points in 29 minutes in his last game. He comes with plenty of fantasy appeal when he’s on the court, and Rondo is still extremely cheap if he gets 20+ minutes. You can also consider Kevin Porter Jr., Darius Garland, and Terry Rozier here.

Similar to point guard, there are several great options at shooting guard for tournaments. Alec Burks is playing a big role for the New York Knicks, and he gets a plus matchup against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. His recent game log will keep his ownership low, but the opportunities should continue to be there. Seth Curry’s shifted to point guard with Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton out. He’s a versatile option with tremendous scoring potential. Curry also gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets, who’ve struggled against point guards throughout the season. Cade Cunningham, CJ Elleby, and Lance Stephenson (this feels wrong in 2022) are options that can be used in GPPs at shooting guard.

Forward

Cash

Again, you’re looking to the San Antonio Spurs in cash games. Lonnie Walker took over the offense in the last game, and he posted 40 DK points. There’s very little reason to believe he won’t have a massive role once again tonight, meaning he’s entirely too cheap on this slate. Furkan Korkmaz is playing a bigger role for the Philadelphia 76ers with several players out. He’s coming off of a bad game, but he gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets on this slate. He’s another great salary relief option on this slate. Keita Bates-Diop isn’t a great per-minute option, but he should see plenty of time on the court in this game.

You’re starting your cash game builds with Giannis Antetokounmpo. In its simplest form, he dominates the Charlotte Hornets. They don’t have anyone to slow him down, and they play the exact type of game he thrives in. Antetokounmpo is the most expensive player on the slate, but I’ll be locking him in immediately. Nassir Little’s playing a big role in the Portland Blazers rotation with several players out, and he comes with tremendous upside. He’s another player who DraftKings priced entirely too cheap on this slate. He doesn’t generally take over offensively, but he’s flashed the potential to in previous games. Miles Bridges is a bit more expensive, but he can be considered in all leagues. He gets a great matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, and he’s another type of player that is designed to thrive in this type of game environment. He scored 39 DK points against them in their last matchup.

GPP

Bojan Bogdanovic is quietly an elite tournament option on this slate. He’s been elite in extremely limited games (3) without Rudy Gobert the last two seasons, including a 61.75 DK point performance the other night. He’s taking on a massive offensive role with several players out for the Utah Jazz, and he gets a matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who struggled against small forwards. Bogdanovic is certainly risky, but he boasts elite scoring potential in this matchup. Khris Middleton is another option I’m considering in GPPs. He doesn’t actually play much different with or without Jrue Holiday in the lineup, but he gets a great matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. If his ownership doesn’t get boosted throughout the day, I could back Middleton in GPPs once again against the Charlotte Hornets. You can also consider Josh Christopher, Kevin Durant, and Matisse Thybulle here.

Tobias Harris is one of the more interesting options on this slate. The Houston Rockets struggle against versatile forwards, but Joel Embiid is also going to be able to completely take this game over if he wants. Still, Harris comes with plenty of upside in the matchup. He’s expensive enough that he won’t garner a ridiculous amount of ownership, but he comes with 50+ DK point upside against Houston. Al Horford’s price tag is on the decline because of recent struggles, but he gets a good matchup against the Indiana Pacers tonight. He’s expected to play around 30 minutes, and we’ve seen plenty of upside from Horford throughout the season. He’s a boom or bust GPP option. Evan Mobley, Jordan Nwora, and Royce O’Neale are all interesting tournament plays at power forward tonight.

Center

Cash

Center is absolutely loaded tonight. It starts with Hassan Whiteside, who’s struggled since starting for Rudy Gobert. He’s an elite per-minute player, though, and he’s played 25 and 30 minutes. It’s only a matter of time before he easily destroys his current price tag. Jusuf Nurkic is taking on a larger role in the Portland Blazers offense, as he’s coming off of a 14/16/9/1/2 performance. He also gets a great matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. Joel Embiid gets an elite matchup against the Houston Rockets, who’ve struggled against scoring centers. They don’t have anyone to slow him down, making him an elite option in all leagues. Jakob Poeltl is still too cheap at $6.1k. He’s a double-double threat that can contribute in each of the five categories. He also gets a decent matchup against the New York Knicks tonight. Finally, Bobby Portis gets a great matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, who are arguably the worst team in the NBA against centers. He just posted 41 DK points against them, and he could be in line for another massive game.

GPP

Since there are so many “cash game” options, I’ll likely use the ones trending toward less ownership in tournaments tonight. Jarrett Allen is another great option here. He gets a good matchup against the Sacramento Kings, and Allen boasts tremendous upside for his current price tag. Christian Wood is likely the only other center I’m considering here at this point. He gets a tougher matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, but he’s averaging nearly 40 DK points per game at home this season. Wood’s price decreased far too much and it hasn’t been re-adjusted yet. He’s just too cheap.

 

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