Over Under 2/2 – Chicago Bulls/Sacramento Kings
Zach LaVine has featured a few ups and downs this season, but he’s heating back up at the moment. He’s averaging 30.0 points on 21.1 shot attempts, 5.9 three-point attempts, and 9.3 free throw attempts per game over his last seven games. He has also scored 24+ points in six of those games. Tonight, LaVine gets an elite matchup against the Sacramento Kings, who have struggled defensively and play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA. In their only matchup this season, LaVine scored 19 points on only 13 shot attempts and 2 free throws. He’ll see a significantly larger role tonight, making him a strong bet for the over. Willie Cauley-Stein is a bit riskier, but he has been playing well recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 9.4 rebounds in 28.0 minutes per game. He’s extremely inconsistent, making this a matchup based play. In their only matchup this season, WCS posted 16 rebounds in only 27.3 minutes against the Chicago Bulls. Chicago ranks in the bottom-eight of the NBA in rebounds allowed (16.3) per game to opposing centers, and Cauley-Stein should find plenty of success in minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight.
Play $50 on Zach LaVine OVER 23.5 points and Willie Cauley-Stein OVER 8.5 rebounds to win $130.50 (2.61x)
Over Under 2/2 – Atlanta Hawks/Orlando Magic
Trae Young comes with a surprising prop tonight, but that may because of recent struggles in a few games. Overall, he’s averaging 25.8 points on 18.0 shot attempts, 6.9 three-point attempts, and 7.5 free throw attempts per game over his last 12 games. He has posted 21+ points in 9 of those 12 games, although he has failed to do so in three of his last seven games. Young is only averaging 17.0 points per game against the Orlando Magic this season, but he now owns a significantly larger role in the offense, similarly to Zach LaVine. Young has also proven that he doesn’t necessarily need to posted efficient numbers to hit the over on the prop. Terrence Ross comes with more risk than Young, but the over makes sense here. He’s averaging 8.2 three-point attempts in 26.9 minutes per game over his last 21 games. He’s also averaging 3.0 three-pointers made per game over that span. Furthermore, Ross has posted 3+ three-pointers in 15 of those 21 games. He has struggled to produce against Atlanta in two matchups this season, but he is averaging 7.0 three-point attempts per game over that span. He’s shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc over the last 10 days, and I’m willing to take the risk for more than 2.5x our money.
Play $50 on Trae Young OVER 20.5 points and Terrence Ross OVER 2.5 three-pointers made to win $130.50 (2.61x)
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