Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Lakers/Toronto Raptors
The Los Angeles Lakers announced that LeBron James would see reduced minutes, and his points prop dropped significantly. The minutes change hasn’t affected his scoring, though. He has scored 24+ points in each of his last 11 games. He’s averaging 29.4 points on 21.2 shot attempts, 6.5 three-point attempts, and 8.5 free throw attempts per game over that span. His minutes have dropped in his last three games, specifically, but he’s still averaging 32.3 points per game in those contests. The Toronto Raptors feature a strong defense, but this prop is entirely too low for James. I’m not overly sold on Kyle Lowry’s prop, but I simply couldn’t waste James’ point total. Lowry has certainly struggled from beyond the arc at times, but he’s averaging 3.4 three-pointers made on 8.1 three-point attempts per game over his last 14 games. He has also produced 3+ three-pointers made in 11 of those 14 contests. He’ll see an uptick in pace against Los Angeles, and he recorded three three-pointers made in their only matchup this season. I see that repeating itself, as Lowry is fully expected to return to full minutes in this game.
Play $50 on LeBron James OVER 23.5 points and Kyle Lowry OVER 2.5 three-pointers made to win $118 (2.36x)
Over Under 2/2 – Minnesota Wolves/Utah Jazz
Karl-Anthony Towns has been playing at another level for quite some time, but his prop doesn’t represent that. Over his last 14 games, he’s averaging 31.8 points on 19.4 shot attempts, 5.2 three-point attempts, and 7.0 free throw attempts per game. He has scored 25+ points in 12 of those 14 games, as well. We can take this back even further, as well, as he has posted 25+ points in 16 of his last 20 games. For what it’s worth, Towns is also averaging a healthy 35.0 points per game over his last eight games. He gets a solid matchup against the Utah Jazz, who he’s averaging 27.7 points per game against this season. The only thing that has been able to slow down Ricky Rubio’s assists total has been a lack of minutes. He has posted 6+ assists in nine of his last 14 games. He has played less than 25 minutes in each of his last three games with less than six assists. Rubio is expected to find minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight, giving him plenty of time to find assists. He has also been significantly better at home, where he’s averaging 6.8 assists per game, as opposed to 5.3 assists per game on the road. Rubio isn’t nearly as safe as Towns, but he’s also in a great spot to hit the over tonight.
Play $50 on Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 24.5 points and Ricky Rubio OVER 5.5 assists to win $127 (2.54x)
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