Over Under 2/2 – Orlando Magic/Washington Wizards
Terrence Ross isn’t the most consistent scorer in the NBA, but 15 points is a bit too low. Over his last 19 games, he’s averaging 17.0 points on 14.7 shot attempts, 8.5 three-point attempts, and 1.9 free throw attempts per game. His numbers are a bit skewed because of four games with single-digit points. With that being said, he has scored 15+ points in his other 15 games. He’s expected to play full minutes, and he gets a plus matchup against the Washington Wizards tonight. He’s currently averaging 16.3 points in 29.2 minutes per game against Washington this season, and he should find similar results tonight. Similarly to Ross, Trevor Ariza isn’t the most consistent player on the floor. He’s a volume shooter, though, and he’s averaging 2.3 three-pointers made on 6.8 three-point attempts per game over his last 13 games. Ariza has also made 2+ three-pointers in nine of those 13 games. This game should be relatively high scoring, and Ariza should continue to take plenty of three-point attempts. He’s also shooting 41.2% from beyond the arc over the last 10 days, making him a strong play on the over tonight.
Play $50 on Terrence Ross OVER 14.5 points and Trevor Ariza OVER 1.5 three-pointers made to win $114.50 (2.29x)
Over Under 2/2 – Memphis Grizzlies/Atlanta Hawks
Mike Conley simply seems like a lock at this point. The Memphis Grizzlies are his team, and he has been heating up recently. He’s averaging 31.3 points per game over his last three games, while taking 18 shots in each game. He has also found the line for easy points at a high rate over that span. He gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, who feature one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA, and will be looking to push the pace in this game. They’re allowing 25.2 points per game to opposing point guards, which ranks second last in the NBA. Conley needed only 25 minutes to score 16 points against them earlier this season, but he should see full minutes tonight, as this game is expected to stay close. While Conley will see a massive uptick in pace, John Collins will see a massive downtick in pace. He has recorded double-digit rebounds in five of his last six games, but the Atlanta Hawks frontcourt is healthy once again. He’ll be fighting for rebounds with Dewayne Dedmon and Alex Len, and Collins was struggling to consistently record double-digit rebounds with them healthy. The Memphis Grizzlies also rank in the top-six of the NBA in rebounds allowed (10.7) per game to power forwards. Collins will likely see limited opportunities in this game, and that should result in him missing the double-double.
Play $50 on Mike Conley OVER 21.5 points and John Collins UNDER 9.5 rebounds to win $129.50 (2.59x)
Over Under 2/2 – Utah Jazz/Phoenix Suns
I was going back and forth on recommending this play, but Derrick Favors seems close to a lock for the under. He was recently playing at an extremely high level, but the Utah Jazz have since cut his minutes. Over his last four games, he’s averaging only 5.0 rebounds in 23.2 minutes per game. He’s expected to find similar minutes tonight, and he failed to record more than six rebounds in any of those games. The Phoenix Suns have struggled against centers this season, and Rudy Gobert should feature an elite rebounding rate once again. That will leave limited opportunities for Favors, who should comfortably hit the under tonight. While Gobert is a high-end defensive star, he hasn’t truly stopped opposing centers from scoring. Utah ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in points allowed (23.5) per game to opposing centers. Deandre Ayton has been playing well recently, averaging 17.7 points per game over his last 13 games. He has also scored 16+ points in nine of those 13 games. Furthermore, he posted 20 points in his only matchup against the Jazz this season, and he should see a similar role in the offense tonight. He comes with a bit of risk, but the Favors prop forced me to lock this play in tonight.
Play $50 on Deandre Ayton OVER 15.5 points and Derrick Favors UNDER 7.5 rebounds to win $119 (2.38x)
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