Over Under 2/2 – Houston Rockets/Dallas Mavericks
James Harden is an elite scorer, but this is simply too high for a healthy Houston Rockets team. He’s averaging 36.3 points per game over his last seven games, but he has only scored 37+ points in two of those contests. He gets a solid matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, but he’s also only averaging 30.3 points per game in three matchups against them this season. Furthermore, he has played 36.3 minutes per game in those contests, which is likely around what he could play tonight. Also, this game does have some blowout potential, meaning if someone besides Harden catches fire, Harden simply may not see the volume to hit this prop. Luka Doncic isn’t necessarily consistent, but the volume is there. He’s averaging 2.8 three-pointers made on 8.5 three-point attempts per game over his last 15 contests. He has also made 3+ three-pointers in 10 of those 15 games. He gets a solid matchup against Houston, who loves turning games into shooting contests. A young player like Doncic may accept the challenge, and he’ll need a relatively normal shooting night to hit this prop with his current volume.
Play $50 on James Harden UNDER 36.5 points and Luka Doncic OVER 2.5 three-pointers made to win $129 (2.58x)
Over Under 2/2 – New York Knicks/Minnesota Wolves
I don’t trust the New York Knicks in any way, shape, or form, but this prop makes sense. Emmanuel Mudiay recently had a string of games, where he was seeing plenty of usage and shot attempts. That time has since passed. In his last three games, he’s averaging 6.3 points on 7.0 shot attempts, 2.0 three-point attempts, and 0.7 free throw attempts per game. More importantly, he’s averaging only 20.0 minutes per game over that span. Mudiay scored single-digit points in each of those games, as well. He isn’t expected to see a large boost in minutes tonight, and he’ll likely struggle once again if his playing time is limited. Jeff Teague is back to playing full minutes, and he has looked outstanding. Over his last nine games, he is averaging 8.7 assists in 30.6 minutes per game. He has also posted 8+ assists in seven of those games, although one of his misses was a game in which he played only 18 minutes. New York has struggled against point guards this season, as they are allowing an average of 8.4 assists per game to opposing point guards, which ranks in the bottom-10 of the NBA. Teague could also see a small increase in usage tonight with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns both dealing with injuries.
Play $50 on Emmanuel Mudiay UNDER 12.5 points and Jeff Teague OVER 7.5 assists to win $127 (2.54x)
Over Under 2/2 – Phoenix Suns/Golden State Warriors
I’m siding with the theory that Stephen Curry simply won’t be needed in this game. He hasn’t been the same scorer since the Golden State Warriors returned a fully healthy lineup, and there’s no reason to believe that will change tonight. Over his last 17 games, Curry is averaging 25.1 points on 19.2 shot attempts, 12.2 three-point attempts, and 3.2 free throw attempts. He has also scored fewer than 28 points in 12 of those 17 games. He tends to pick up his scoring when Golden State is dealing with injuries, but they are fully healthy for this game. This could also quickly turn into a blowout, so if Curry isn’t scoring at an elite level early, he may not have the opportunities to pick it up late. Devin Booker is a high-ceiling player, but he’s also inconsistent. He’s averaging 6.1 assists per game over his last 11 games, while recording six or fewer assists in six of those contests. He has also faced off against Golden State twice this season, and he’s averaging 6.0 assists per game against them. The Warriors are a slightly below average team in terms of assists allowed (4.8) per game to opposing shooting guards, but they could utilize a gameplan that keeps the ball out of Booker’s hands tonight. He’s generally locked into major minutes, but that could also change if Golden State is able to blow them out early.
Play $50 on Stephen Curry UNDER 27.5 points and Devin Booker UNDER 6.5 assists to win $113.50 (2.27x)
Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
