Glass Cleaner – Sacramento Kings/Minnesota Wolves
This play is essentially taking advantage of Marvin Bagley III’s new minutes. On the season, he’s averaging 10.4 rebounds on a per-36 minute basis, and that number seemingly increases when he’s given 30+ minutes in a game. He has been given 30+ minutes in six of his last 12 games, and he’s averaging 11.2 rebounds per game over that span. Furthermore, he posted double-digit rebounds in five of those six games. Bagley has posted 10 and 14 rebounds in his two games since the All Star Break (ASB), and he should see 30+ minutes again tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns is the other obvious option in this play. He’s averaging 13.1 rebounds per game at home, while also averaging 14.7 rebounds per game against the Sacramento Kings. Towns had cooled off a bit in the rebounding department prior to his most recent injury, but he should be back at full healthy tonight, and he comes with 20 rebound potential. I was debating the third player in this play, but Willie Cauley-Stein sticks out well above everyone else. He owns the highest rebounding percentage (15.5%) of any major player on either team not named Karl-Anthony Towns. While he has seen inconsistent minutes this season, WCS is expected to play around the same minutes as Taj Gibson, making him the more appealing option. He’s also averaging 4.3 rebounds in only 21.5 minutes per game against Minnesota this season, and Cauley-Stein adds a bit more upside to this stack.
Play $50 on Karl-Anthony Towns, Marvin Bagley III, and Willie Cauley-Stein OVER 32.5 rebounds to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 2/2 – Milwaukee Bucks/Chicago Bulls
Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for tonight, which leaves plenty of shots and usage to go around to other players. Khris Middleton is one of those players, and he could see his usage rating increase to roughly 26% tonight. He’s coming off of a dominant 28 point performance against the Minnesota Wolves, and he’ll likely take shots in the high-teens once again tonight. Middleton has also found success against the Chicago Bulls earlier this season, as he’s averaging 18.7 points in 32.2 minutes per game in their three matchups. While his numbers don’t always pop off of the page, he should have no problems hitting this prop with an extended role in the offense. It’s relatively obvious that Otto Porter Jr. will continue to have a larger role in the Chicago offense than he did in the Washington Wizards offense. He was injured in his last game, so we won’t take that into account, but he was fully healthy in his prior five games. In those games, he recorded 2+ three-pointers made in each one, while averaging 2.8 three-pointers made per game. If he plays tonight, it’s because he’s fully healthy and will see 30+ minutes tonight. There’s simply no reason for Chicago to risk further injury to Porter, and he can certainly hit two or more three-pointers in 30+ minutes tonight.
Play $50 on Khris Middleton OVER 18.5 points and Otto Porter Jr. OVER 1.5 three-pointers made to win $114.50 (2.29x)
Over Under 2/2 – Indiana Pacers/Detroit Pistons
Bojan Bogdanovic has a surprisingly low point total in this play, and we can take advantage of that. He has scored 16+ points in 11 of his last 15 games, while three of his four games under 16 points were 14 or more. Over that span, he’s averaging 14.7 shot attempts, 5.2 three-point attempts, and 3.3 free throws attempts per game. Bogdanovic only scored 12 points in his only matchup against the Detroit Pistons this season, but I expect him to take a leap forward in this game. Reggie Jackson is the more concerning player of the duo. He hasn’t been a consistent option in the assists department, recording 6+ assists in seven of his last 11 games. He generally struggles when given limited minutes, but he’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight. He also gets an elite matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who rank in the bottom-five of the NBA in assists allowed (8.7) per game this season. While Jackson does come with some risk, he makes a solid option when given the minutes.
Play $50 on Bojan Bogdanovic OVER 15.5 points and Reggie Jackson OVER 5.5 assists to win $116.50 (2.33x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
