Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Clippers/Denver Nuggets
Normally, I tend to stay away from the steals and blocks props, but Paul Millsap is an exception at this value. He’s averaging 3.0 steals and blocks this season on a per-36 minute basis. That number only slightly drops to 2.9 through his 13 year career in the NBA. He has posted 2+ steals and blocks in eight of his last 11 games, failing to do so in game he was given 21, 17, and 18 minutes on the court. There have been very few occasions when Millsap has missed this prop in full minutes, and he’s expected to see 30+ minutes tonight after playing 30+ minutes in each of his last two games. He also gets an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who will be looking to push the pace, and have allowed opposing power forwards to average 3.5 steals and blocks per game this season. Lou Williams is the focal point of the Clippers offense, as he has posted a career-high 32.6% usage rating through 54 games this season. He has been a dominant scorer for the most part, but inconsistent minutes have limited the consistency of his production. Still, he’s averaging 27.3 points per game on a per-36 minute basis, and Williams will see 30+ minutes if this game stays relatively close. On the season, he’s averaging 13.0 points in only 21.6 minutes per game against the Denver Nuggets, and they’ll need his scoring to keep this game close. I’m strictly banking on Williams and Millsap playing 30+ minutes tonight, and if they do, they should have no problems exceeding value.
Play $50 on Lou Williams OVER 20.5 points and Paul Millsap OVER 1.5 steals and blocks to win $123 (2.46x)
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