Glass Cleaner – Washington Wizards/Philadelphia 76ers
It’s slightly odd that I keep coming back to these rebounding props, but the totals are simply too low for this type of game. This game features two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, meaning there will be plenty of opportunities for rebounds. Joel Embiid has been playing at an elite level recently, averaging 16.3 rebounds per game over the last 10 days. He has posted double-digit rebounds in 34 of 38 games this season, as well. Furthermore, the Washington Wizards rank in the bottom-five of the NBA in rebounds allowed (17.4) per game to centers. Embiid has also posted 17+ rebounds in four of his last 11 games, flashing elite rebounding potential each night. Ben Simmons isn’t as consistent of a rebounder as Embiid, but he owns double-digit rebounds in six of his last 10 games, while averaging 9.8 rebounds per game over that span. These two combined for 23 rebounds in only 47.5 total minutes in their only matchup against Washington this season. Embiid and Simmons are likely to combine for 70+ minutes tonight, as well. Thomas Bryant has seen inconsistent minutes this season, but he’s averaging 10.4 rebounds on a per-36 minute basis, and he is averaging 11.5 rebounds per game in his only four games with 30+ minutes recently. Bryant also needed only 18.4 minutes to record seven rebounds against the Philadelphia 76ers earlier this season. He’s tentatively expected to see around 30 minutes tonight, but his minutes have been far too inconsistent to trust. With that being said, he adds another layer of potential to this trio.
Play $50 on Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Thomas Bryant OVER 33.5 rebounds to win $100 (2x)
Glass Cleaner – Atlanta Hawks/Toronto Raptors
There are a lot of moving parts in this play, but the total here is entirely too low for the potential of these players. John Collins is the most obvious option, as he’s averaging 11.2 rebounds per game over the last 10 days. He has posted double-digit rebounds in seven of his last nine games, including two games with 16 rebounds. Toronto ranks in the bottom-six of the NBA in rebounds allowed (11.9) per game to power forwards, and Collins has the potential to hit half of this play by himself. I originally slotted Pascal Siakam into this play, but I have since swapped him for the upside of Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon has posted nine or more rebounds in four of his last five games, and he’s averaging 12.0 rebounds per game (excluding a one rebound performance against the Milwaukee Bucks) in that time. Toronto ranks as an average team in the NBA against centers, allowing 15.9 rebounds per game). While Dedmon’s inconsistent minutes bring a bit of risk to this play, his 16.5% rebounding percentage, along with John Collins’ 18.6% rebounding percentage, give up 20+ rebound potential from this duo. Serge Ibaka owns a 14.1% rebounding rate on the season, but this is the fast paced type of game he can thrive in. He’s averaging 7.3 rebounds per game over the last 10 days, and he needed only 21.3 minutes to record nine rebounds in his first matchup against the Hawks. Atlanta has struggled against both power forwards and centers in terms of rebounding this season, so Ibaka’s position won’t be too much of a concern. Each of these players have the potential to record 15+ rebounds on any given night, and that simply makes this total entirely too low for their potential.
Play $50 on John Collins, Serge Ibaka, and Dewayne Dedmon OVER 28.5 rebounds to win $100 (2x)
Over/Under 2/2 – Minnesota Wolves/Oklahoma City Thunder
The Minnesota Wolves have struggled against the small forwards this season, ranking in the bottom-10 of the NBA in points allowed per game to the position. This season, they’re allowing 21.3 points per game to opposing small forwards, and Paul George will be one of the best they face this season. He’s averaging 30.4 points per game over the last 10 days, and he has been playing at a high level for significantly longer than that. George has scored 24+ points in 12 of his last 14 games, while averaging 31.6 points per game over that span. He’s averaging 21.8 shot attempts, 8.2 three-point attempts, and 7.7 free throw attempts over that span, as well. There’s very little reason to believe this is a matchup that will be able to slow him down. Karl-Anthony Towns is the more worrisome play, as the Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing only 21.4 points per game to opposing centers, which ranks in the top-10 in the NBA. With that being said, Towns has scored 28+ points in each of his last six games, and he’s clearly taking on a larger role in the Minnesota offense. Over that span, he’s averaging 29.7 points on 20.8 shot attempts, 4.5 three-point attempts, and 8.0 free throw attempts per game. Derrick Rose has been ruled out once again tonight, leaving the door open for Towns to lead the offense once again, even in a tough matchup.
Play $50 on Paul George OVER 23.5 points and Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 21.5 points to win $101.50 (2.03x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.