AP CORE 5 *GPP*
Happy Valentines Day Karma Nation! Screens were very green yesterday, so I felt the need to tackle this short three game slate tonight. Let me preface this write up with a few things to note; (1) it’s a three-game slate so GPP only and (2) it is very much okay to get a little weird on these shorter slates.
POINT GUARD, Tim Frazier, 3,800 (GPP Value)
With Elfrid Payton likely to be ruled out (this is what I’m assuming), Tim Frazier has been the trusted backup over Frank Jackson. Frazier is most definitely a pass first type of guard, but he has shown a solid ability to rack up peripheral stats in his role. I have Frazier’s projected minute range at 24 to 30 if Payton is ruled out.
SHOOTING GUARD, Raymond Felton, 3,400 (GPP Value)
To be honest, you could probably flip a coin between Felton or Burton. I’m going to side with the older and wiser, Felton. Historically, he has been a strong FPM producer and he should be locked in to 20-22 minutes with Schroder out.
SMALL FORWARD, Paul George, 10,700 (Core/Priority)
George is going to be a matchup nightmare for this Pelicans team. He is putting up video game like numbers and this is absolutely a statement spot for him. I have George putting up another 40 points tonight to make it three in a row.
POWER FORWARD, Anthony Davis, 9,000 (Core/Priority)
One thing I try to do is apply some logic into my decision making. If you play NBA DFS, you know that logic and actual success don’t always line up. Let me walk you through the variables I see with this Anthony Davis situation. (1) Despite getting torched by Orlando, Vegas opened this line at -3.5 in favor of the Thunder. Right away, 90% of betting volume came in on OKC. With this kind of volume, you would expect a massive line movement. The line moved to -5 and then back down to -4.5. My conclusion? Something is up, this line is very fishy. (2) After the Orlando game, Davis came out and essentially ripped himself and his teammates. If Davis didn’t care, would he really rip his teammates? Probably not, in my opinion, he would probably give some vague response and not bring his teammates/friends into it. Lastly on this point, a player of AD’s caliber can’t come out and rip into his team/teammates and then come out flat again in the next game. (3) This is the last game before all-star break, and it is the only one that will be nationally televised on TNT tonight. Given the drama that has unfolded, all eyes will be on the Pelicans tonight. These guys are professionals and this Pelicans team can hang with anyone if AD is playing; I just can’t see them coming out flat again. (4) Lastly, the Pelicans showed their cards when they played AD 34 minutes against the Grizzlies. If he sees those types of minutes in this game environment, he could put up a ridiculous number tonight.
CENTER, Mitchell Robinson, 4,100 (Core)
First off, please know the risks when rostering a player from this Fizdale coached team. If you have an extra 700, I think Cody Zeller is a safer option from a minute’s perspective. The Knicks are by far the most frustrating team to target in DFS right now. Fizdale changes this rotation up on a nightly basis, it is essentially impossible to predict what he is going to do next. With that said, Robinson has been a beast for this Knicks team, putting up big numbers in limited minutes. Also, don’t completely sweat if he hasn’t done much in the first half. Robinson has been closing games in the 4th qtr, which has bumped his minutes up a bit for someone coming off the bench.
*This core leaves you with $6,333 left to spend per position.
*My Very Bold Call* -> Vegas ends up the true winner tonight when the Pelicans defeat the Thunder (92% of public bets are on OKC), 136 to 134 in a thriller led by Anthony Davis who puts up 50 real points, 20 rebounds and adds 5 blocks; he goes on to then break DraftKings, Twitter and the hearts of everyone who faded him.
