AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 11/30
Happy Friday Karma Nation! This week has been fantastic; we cashed in three or four straight slates and we get to finish the work week off with a wonderful 11 game slate. Additionally, we are on an INSANE 12-4 +26.25 unit ($2,625) run for our system NBA plays. If you are passionate about betting and if you have been riding the 84-67 run we are on, I’d encourage you to sign up for the NBA bets package -> https://www.dfskarma.com/shop/ and find this image (below) and click to sign up. $14.99 for the first 7 days (locked in for life) and then the price increases. Moving forward, you will need this package to access my bets.
Here’s a look at our system plays and how they have fared this week.
Implementing this betting system and putting together all of the other FREE content at DFS Karma is a lot of work. If you are worried about a price tag being put on this article and the AP Playbook, don’t be! That will continue to be sponsored by DFS Karma for free. If you want to make money and learn how I use our betting model to coordinate with DFS, then I’d encourage you to sign up for the package.
With all of that said, let’s dive into this slate!
Bulls AT Pistons, 9.5, 216.5
No real changes for the bulls. However, we can expect Lauri, Dunn, Bobby back within the next 4 games. Luke KEnnard and Henry Ellenson OUT for Detroit.
We have a massive 5 unit bet on the OVER in this game. Detroit ranks 9th and the Bulls rank 14th in overall pace. If you are a frequent reader of my material, you know by now why I emphasize the importance of weighting team pace into your decisions. Faster PACE = More opportunities.
We can attack the Pistons with opposing guards and value bigs, assuming they will see more court time to match up with Detroit’s size. This is one other reason why like the over in this game; Justin Holiday, Zach LaVine, and Ryan Arcidacono will have free looks at jumpers.
On the other side of the court, the best way to attack Chicago is through opposing frontcourts. Detroit runs a very traditional offense where everything moves through their frontcourt via Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. From a betting perspective, this game checks almost all the boxes. Our main risk is shooting efficiency.
Ryan Arcidiacono, PG, 4,400 -> Elite value in all formats.
Zach LaVine, PG/SG, 8,400 -> Elite play in all formats.
Justin Holiday, SG/SF, 5,400 -> Solid to Elite in all formats.
Jabari Parker, SF/PF, 6,700 -> Fine GPP (Foul trouble vs Blake is a real concern here)
Reggie Jackson, PG/SG, 5,700 -> Solid GPP (Minutes risk, he tends to share time w/ Ish Smith)
Blake Griffin, PF/C, 9,600 -> Solid to Elite GPP
Andre Drummond, C, 9,400 -> Elite play. (Perfect rebound spot against this weak frontcourt)
Jazz AT Hornets -1.5, 215
No major injuries to report at this time.
The Jazz rank 23rd and Hornets rank 13th in overall pace. Both of these teams tend put an emphasis on sound defense as well. On a slate this large, I’m really not excited about this game. However, I wouldn’t mind a few one-offs in tournaments.
Kemba Walker, PG, 8,800 -> Fine to Solid GPP. Kemba’s price is under 9k and he has been thriving in tough matchups. I also like to play Kemba when he is on his home court.
Rudy Gobert, C, 8,000 -> Fine to Solid play. Sure, it feels a bit like chasing but Charlotte doesn’t have any bigs that will be able to match up with Gobert.
Cavaliers AT Celtics -12, 208
David Nwaba, Sam Dekker are OUT. George Hill is Questionable. Al Horford (rest) and Jaylen Brown are OUT.
This game becomes really interesting from an injury perspective. We should be able to find some elite value plays here. With Brown and Horford out, I’ll assume Aron Baynes and Marcus Smart will get the starts. I’m never too excited at play Marcus Smart but this game could be sloppy, which could really help his cause (from a steals upside). Aron Baynes is the man I want to lock in. In this same spot against Atlanta, he put up almost 35 DK points in 23 minutes. Terry Rozier is another GPP value that becomes more interesting than Marcus Smart, in my opinion. With Brown out against the Hawks, Rozier saw 25 minutes. If this game blows out, he could see even more with garbage time.
Aron Baynes, C, 3,200 -> Elite Value (If starting)
Marcus Morris, SF/PF, 5,400 -> Solid play.
Marcus Smart, PG/SG, 4,300 -> GPP Value.
Terry Rozier, PG/SG, 3,800 -> Fine to Solid GPP value.
Kyrie Irving ~> More of a GPP play for me. I’d rather play Kyrie in a tough/competitive matchup.
Cavs~> Not really too excited about forcing any Cav’s players into my lineups.
Wizards AT 76ers, -7.5, 235
Dwight Howard OUT -> Butthurt, which requires surgery to repair.
*UPDATE* -> Otto Porter is OUT
Wizards rank 5th and 76ers rank 4th in overall team pace. This game will have an ELITE overall pace and it wouldn’t surprise me if OVERS gets added to our list of bets. If you are looking at DVP, the 76ers are a tough team to attack on paper. However, in this top of spot I’ll generally weight overall pace over DVP. With Howard out (and even if he was IN), the best way to attack the Wizards is at the center position.
Joel Embiid, C, 10,900 -> Elite Play. Embiid is averaging right around 57 DK points over his last 6 games. The pace and matchup is perfect for his style of play.
Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, 7,400 -> Solid GPP. I get the feeling we are going to see Jimmy thrive in matchups against ‘other stars’. A matchup against the Wizards and John Wall and Bradley Beal, could bring out the usage in Jimmy. GPP only.
Ben Simmons, PG/SF, 8,500 -> Elite GPP. Simmons seems to be the forgotten man in the Jimmy era at Philly. However, if this game stays competitive, he’s going to see heavy minutes on the court and we saw signs of his old elite FP/M rate against the Knicks. I think we see a triple double out of Simmons tonight.
Wizards side is a bit trickier to figure out. I’d guess that Jimmy will guard Wall, which puts JJ Redick on Bradley Beal. I still prefer Zach LaVine over Beal, However, in this scenario Beal would make a lot of sense in game stacks.
John Wall, PG, 9,000 -> Solid to Elite play.
Bradley Beal, SG, 8,200 -> Elite GPP.
Kelly Oubre, SG/SF, 4,600 -> Elite Value. Sure, you could view Oubre as chasing, but he’s a key player on this team. I can’t see how they would put Jimmy on a guy like Oubre, so he could see a nice uptick in touches. If his shot is still on, he will easily pay off his price tag.
Markieff Morris, SF/PF, 5,500 -> Solid Play. Morris has arguably been the Wizards best player over the past few games. He has been coming off the bench but he is still logging starter type minutes.
Grizzlies AT Nets TBD
Marc Gasol and Joe Harris are both questionable.
With all the elite plays on this slate, I might completely fade this spot if Gasol is ruled in. I’d absolutely love to play him against the Nets weak frontcourt. However, the pace in this game should be incredibly slow. All it would take is for a guard to get hot, which could take away from getting the ball inside to Gasol.
Pelicans AT Heat, +3.5, 230.5
Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson, and Goran Dragic all OUT. Justise Winslow Probable.
Pelicans rank 3rd and Heat rank 10th in overall pace. We love the OVERS in this game as it should be a scoring fest. In the Pelicans last game, most notably, Tim Frazier got the start and took control of this offense. He dished out 12 dimes against the Wizards. At 4,200, with 35+ minutes upside, he makes for an elite value option. The Heat will need some big play out of Hassan Whiteside but the main risk is if he can stay out of foul trouble against Anthony Davis. Goatside has put up over 40 DK points over his last four games against Anthony Davis. Yeah, you could argue Bam would make for an interesting GPP value play, but I’d rather just lock in Aron Baynes who is cheaper and should be starting.
Tim Frazier, PG/SG, 4,200 -> Elite value.
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, 8,700 -> Solid play.
Nikola Mirotic, SF/PF, 7,300 -> Solid Play.
Julius Randle, PF/C, 6,900 -> Solid to Elite GPP.
Anthony Davis, PF/C, 11,300 -> Elite play in all formats.
Wayne Ellington, PG/SG, 4,400 -> Solid to Elite Value.
Rodney McGruder, SG/SF, 4,800 -> Solid GPP value.
Hassan Whiteside, C, 7,500 -> Solid/Risky/Massive leverage GPP value.
Hawks AT Thunder -13, 228
Alex Poythress, Tyler Dorsey are OUT. Jeremy Lin Questionable. Dewayne Dedmon Probable.
The Hawks rank 1st and Thunder rank 11th in overall pace. If Jeremy Lin plays, this would only help the raw scoring upside, which would put the OVER in play.
Russell Westbrook gets to face one of the worst defenders in the NBA in Trae Young tonight. We also have a little narrative; Dennis Schroder gets to face his own team. This narrative is somewhat interesting as he could see more minutes assuming this game gets out of hand. As I say each time the Hawks are on the slate, I love playing the teams facing them. The Hawks themselves are much tougher to figure out due to their stop and go unpredictable rotations.
Russell Westbrook, PG, 11,500 -> Elite play. He’s up there with AD has one of the top overall plays.
Dennis Schroder, PG/SG, 5,700 -> Solid GPP.
Jerami Grant, SF/PF, 4,500 -> Solid Value.
Rockets AT Spurs +1, 217
Chris Paul, Gerald Green, and Nene Hilario are Questionable.
The Rockets rank 27th and Spurs 25th in overall pace. This really is a massive pace down spot where we should see a lot of contested jumpers. This is one of the reasons we are on the UNDERS tonight in this game.
From a DFS perspective, this game really hinges on the viability of Chris Paul. If Paul is out again, James Harden should again be considered as an elite play in all formats. I don’t like the matchup, but Harden has put up 79, 89 and 66 DK points over the last three games with CP3 out.
Magic AT Suns +1.5, 218
Jonathon Simmons Questionable, Aaron Gordon Questionable. TJ Warren OUT. Josh Jackson STARTING.
The Magic rank 24th and Suns 21st in overall team pace. However, both teams are far from elite in terms of defensive efficiency.
The main thing to note here is that Josh Jackson will be sliding into the starting lineup with TJ Warren out. Let’s just hope that Jackson is past the slow start he had to begin the year. Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Jamal Crawford also see bumps with Warren out.
KEEP ANY EYE ON-> If Simmons and Gordon are both ruled out, I’d give massive upgrades to Jonathan Isaac and Nikola Vucevic. We would also upgrade Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier and DJ Augustin.
Josh Jackson, SF, 3,800 -> Elite value.
Devin Booker, PG/SG, 8,300 -> Solid to Elite.
Deandre Ayton, C, 7,200 -> Solid.
Elie Okobo, PG, 3,000 -> Solid to Elite GPP.
Jamal Crawford, PG/SG, 3,400-> Fine to solid GPP.
Nikola Vucevic, C, 8,900 -> [Elite in all formats if Gordon is ruled out]
Jonathan Isaac, PF, 4,400 -> Elite value if starting & Gordon is ruled out.
Terrence Ross, SG/SF, 4,900 -> Elite if Simmons is ruled out.
DJ Augustin, PG, 4,300 -> Fine to solid value.
Nuggets AT Blazers -2, 213.5
No new injury information for either team.
The Nuggets rank 26th and Blazers rank 17th in overall pace. With all of the amazing elite plays we have already touched on, for all ranges, it is difficult for me to get excited about this spot. I’m sure Nikola Jokic will explode for a triple double at some point, I just struggle to see that happening against Portland. Also, I’d much rather just play Nikola Vucevic in a much better matchup at basically the same price.
Evan Turner, SG/SF, 4,200 -> Fine to Solid play.
Mavericks AT Lakers -4, 222
Dennis Smith Jr, Dwight Powell, and Maxi Kleber are all Questionable.
The Mavericks rank 19th and Lakers rank 8th in overall pace. This game should stay close and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Mavericks get the win over the Lakers tonight. We like the Mavericks at +4.
From a DFS perspective, this game becomes very interesting if DSJ is ruled OUT. Make sure to monitor this news.
Luka Doncic, PG, 7,100 -> Solid Play (Becomes elite if DSJ is ruled out)
Harrison Barnes, SF/PF, 5,900 -> Solid Play.
JJ Barea, PG/SG, 5,300 -> Solid GPP (especially if DSJ is ruled out)
Wesley Matthews, SF/SF, 4,400 -> Solid Value (if his minutes resume to normal)
LeBron James, SF/PF, 10,600 -> Elite play. The Lakers need Lebron to take over. When he does, the result is typically very good. At this point, and with all the elite value on this slate, LeBron is the only play I like for the Lakers.
*As always, check back around 5pm central for updates and the Playbook*