AP NBA Game Theory Decisions 11/19
Happy Monday Karma Nation! We have an awesome 9 game slate this evening. Let’s dive in.
Suns AT 76ers, -11.5, 224
No relevant injury info
Notables; We are on the UNDERS
PACE (PHX): 23rd Proj Poss: +2.1
PACE (PHI): 2nd Proj Poss: -2.1
This game has blowout written all over it. The Suns have struggled to get points in the paint all season and will be relying on hitting jumpers to keep pace. For me, the decision would be Embiid or to pay 200 more for Giannis or 500 more for Anthony Davis. Davis or Giannis, in my opinion, gives you a safer floor and higher ceiling. With that said, this decision is an easy one in cash/single entry tournaments.
Ben Simmons, PG/SF, 8,900 -> Fine GPP.
JJ Redick, SG/SF, 5,300 -> Solid to Fine cash play.
TJ Warren, SF/PF, 6,400 -> Fine GPP
Deandre Ayton, C, 6,500 -> Solid play.
Devin Booker, PG/SG, 7,700 -> Fine GPP
Celtics AT Hornets +3, 217.5
Michael Kidd Gilchrist OUT
PACE (BOS): 20th Proj Poss: +0.1
PACE (CHA): 12th Proj Poss: -2.0
The most interesting aspect to this game is the Kyrie vs Kemba matchup. Given their inflated prices, I would only go this route in tournaments. Boston is still a deep team that ranks 12th overall in defensive efficiency. Kemba Walker is having an incredible season. He is essentially carrying this Hornets team on his back. Given his 9,900 price tag and the difficult matchup, he is tournament viable only.
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, 4,200 -> Solid GPP value. Brown has struggled with his shot but he should be matched up against Jeremy Lamb. If he gets his shot going, I like his ability to pay off his price tag. He could also throw up a complete dud.
Terry Rozier, PG/SG, 3,900 -> Punt GPP. If this game blows out, which it very well could, Rozier could be in line for extra garbage time in the 4th. Deep field GPP only.
Kyrie Irving + Kemba Walker -> Deep GPP only play. Kyrie could gain some traction due to his “cheap price tag”. I actually like him as a fade in GPPs if he is projected to garner ownership. If I do play him, I’d want to pair him with Kemba, which no one will do. My take is one is dependent upon the other in this matchup. Think back to the Devin Booker vs Kyrie Irving game.
In sum-> I plan on fading Kyrie and most of this game in my main lineup.
Cavaliers AT Pistons -10.5, 211.5
Sam Dekker, George Hill OUT
PACE (CLE): 27th Proj Poss: +0.8
PACE (DET): 7th Proj Poss: -2.4
The overall pace in this game isn’t attractive. However, the Pistons are going to push the pace and the Cavaliers rank 24th in overall defensive efficiency. Detroit also struggles to guard opposing teams backcourts. I think the cheap Cavalier guards and both Griffin and Drummond are in play tonight. A sneaky mini game stacks I could see working in tournaments; Sexton+Clarkson+Griffin+Drummond (Cav’s Backcourt combo’d with Pistons frontcourt).
Collin Sexton, PG, 5,100 -> Elite cash play. He’s starting, seeing big minutes, the matchup is great, and he is taking lots of shots. Sexton is a steal at 5,100. Lock him in tonight.
Jordan Clarkson, PG/SG, 5,200 -> Solid GPP play. Clarkson comes off the bench, which is going to put him into that GPP category for me. I could see both him and Sexton hitting value tonight.
David Nwaba, SG/SF, 3,500 -> Elite GPP value. Nwaba has seen 27 & 28 minutes over the last two games. He’s active on defense, solid at getting peripherals, and isn’t afraid to shoot. This price is just too good to pass up.
Blake Griffin, PF/C, 10,100 -> Solid GPP. Blake owns a 30% USG & 1.34 FP/minute rate this season. If this game stays close, he has plenty of upside to pay off his salary. My one fear is if the Cavs slow the pace down quite a bit. Also, if Westbrook is OUT*, I’d much rather play Paul George.
Andre Drummond, C, 9,700 -> Solid in all formats. Drum hit just over 5x the last time these teams played. He should thrive against the Cavaliers, who really struggle on the glass.
Jazz AT Pacers +2, 206
Victor Oladipo OUT
PACE (UTA): 24th Proj Poss: -2.7
PACE (IND): 28th Proj Poss: -1.6
Usage w/ Dipo OUT
USG&FP/M: Evans 32%/1.11, Turner 26%/1.07, Sabonis 24%/1.61, Bojan 24%/0.85, Collison 22%/0.86
This is a massive pace down spot between two teams who rank 17th and 10th in defensive efficiency. The only reason I have interest in this spot is because Oladipo was ruled out. This should open things up for Tyreke Evans, who is only 4,100 on DraftKings. I also don’t hate Donovan Mitchell, as he won’t have to worry about dealing with Oladipo defense.
Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG, 7,300 -> Solid Play.
Tyreke Evans, SG/SF, 4,100 -> Elite Value. With Dipo out of the lineup, Evans has 40+ point upside. Evans will be chalk on this slate and I feel he is the type of chalk you can’t fade. I’ll be 100% Evans tonight.
Myles Turner, C, 4,700 -> Solid GPP Value. Turner actually sees a bump in FP/M & USG when Dipo is off the court. His matchup against Gobert is brutal, but this could be the leverage spot that goes overlooked tonight.
Darren Collison, PG, 4,900 -> Fine Value.
Bojan Bogdanovic, SG/SF, 4,600 -> Fine to Solid Value.
Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, 4,000 -> Fine value.
Domantas Sabonis, PF/C, 6,300 -> Fine GPP.
Cory Joseph, PG, 3,900 -> Solid GPP value.
*Let’s pause and think ‘out loud’ for a moment* -> When’s the last time a team has had every starter priced under 5k on DraftKings? It was most likely last year when the Grizz and Hawks were tanking. The difference here is the Pacers are still a legit team and could win this game, even without Dipo. We could see 4-5 Pacers get at least 25+ tonight, which could easily provide you with enough value to pay up for multiple studs. This is definitely an interesting spot.
Clippers AT Hawks +8, 230.5
Avery Bradley – Questionable
Taurean Prince & Alex Poythress Doubtful
PACE (LAC): 8th Proj Poss: +5.3
PACE (ATL): 1st Proj Poss: +1.4
Hawks USG w/ Prince & Pyothress OUT
USG&FP/min: Young 32%/1.17, Lin 24%/1.07, Baze 24%/0.97, Len 21%/1.21, Bembry 20%/0.84, Dedmon 17%/1.06, Spellman 16%/0.80, Huerter 15%/0.75
The Clippers have a deep rotation which doesn’t make them an attractive team to target. For me, it really comes down to price.
Tobias Harris, SF/PF, 7,800 -> He’s a fine play. I feel he a bit too safe and lacks the upside I want at this given price.
Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, 6,200 -> Gallo should thrive in a fast paced matchup. Due to price, I’d prefer him over Tobias tonight.
Lou Williams-> Minutes are volatile and he is raw scoring dependent. Pat Bev/Shai-> I don’t feel comfortable with either of these guys.
Montrezl Harrell, PF/C, 6,600 -> GPP His price is getting up there. He is a high FP/M producer but his biggest risk would be his unpredictable minutes. He could put up a big number in this fast paced matchup.
Taurean Prince, SF, 5,800 -> Fine to Solid GPP if no minutes restriction is announced.
Trae Young, PG, 6,300 -> Risky GPP play. Brutal matchup vs Pat Bev but shooters gonna shoot.
Omari Spellman, PF, 3,800 -> Fine Value play.
Spurs AT Pelicans -7.5, 222
Pau Gasol Doubtful, Davis Bertans Questionable -> Update, Bertans/Gasol OUT, Gay Questionable, Notables-> Spurs on B2B
Elfrid Payton Out
PACE (SAS): 25th Proj Poss: +3.8
PACE (NOR): 5th Proj Poss: -3.1
My main concern is that Aldridge and DeRozan both played 40 minutes last night. If this game gets ugly quick, all of the starters could get pulled early. This would be bad for both sides.
DeRozan & Aldridge -> Fine to Solid GPP plays.
Marco Belinelli, SG/SF, 3,500 -> Solid GPP value.
Anthony Davis, PF/C, 11,600 -> Solid Play. I slightly prefer Giannis tonight.
Nikola Mirotic, SF/PF, 7,100 -> Solid GPP
Julius Randle, PF/C, 6,800-> Solid GPP
*PS -> It is just so hard to trust Pop*
Mavericks AT Memphis -3, 202
Dirk, JJ Barea, & Powell OUT, Wesley Matthews Q
PACE (DAL): 17th Proj Poss: -5
PACE (MEM): 30th Proj Poss: -0.2
Mav’s USG IF Matthews is also out;
USG&FP/M: Doncic 31%/1.02, DSJ 29%/0.89, Barnes 24%/0.92, Finney-Smith 14%/0.64, Howard 0.87
Massive pace down spot and even with the potential injury situation for the Mavericks & Grizzlies, I’m still not excited about this spot.
Nuggets AT Bucks -5.5, 225.5
Torrey Craig (Probable)
PACE (DEN): 26th Proj Poss: +2.8
PACE (MIL): 6th Proj Poss: -3.0
USG&FP/M; Murray 27%/0.94, Jokic 26%/1.52, Lyles 25%/1.02, Harris 23%/0.94, Millsap 22%/1.08, Morris 18%/0.86, Hernangomez 15%/9.79
Juan Hernangomez has seen back to back games of 30+ minutes. This is promising as he took over the starting position from Torrey Craig. Craig is probable tonight but I don’t see him as any significant threat to Hernangomez. Monte Morris, only 4,100 on DraftKings, is the clear 6th man on this team. His minutes have been in the high 20s to low 30s over his past 5 or 6 starts. Since recency bias tends to control decision making in NBA dfs, I could see Hernangomez being popular tonight due to his price and recent performance. This feels like a trap spot as the Bucks have been really good against forwards. Hernangomez makes for an interesting GPP fade is what I’m getting at. The Bucks struggle to contain opposing shooting guards and centers. Luckily for us, two of the Nuggets best players are Nikola Jokic (Center) and Gary Harris (SG).
Gary Harris, SG, 6,100 -> Elite Play.
Nikola Jokic, C, 9,500 -> Elite Play.
Juan Hernangomez, SF/PF -> Solid to Fine play.
Monte Morris, PG, 4,100 -> Solid Value.
USG&FP/M: Giannis 33%/1.66, Middleton 26%/1.18, Bledsoe 22%/1.17, Brogdon 18%/0.85, Lopez 18%/0.89
Giannis owns a pretty insane 33% usage & 1.66 fantasy point per minute average. The only problem with Giannis has been his volatile minutes when the Bucks get into blowout situations. That shouldn’t be the case tonight against Denver. Giannis just barely missed on a triple double the last time these two teams met in Denver. When the minutes are there, he owns one of the safest floors on this slate. Giannis is elite in all formats. I won’t talk anyone off of Bledsoe or Middleton but they are GPP only as Giannis dominates so much usage on this team.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/PF, 11,300 -> Elite play.
Eric Bledsoe, PG/SG, 6,900 -> Solid GPP.
Khris Middleton, SG/SF, 7,400 -> Fine play.
Thunder AT Kings +2.5, 220.5
Ferguson & Westbrook Doubtful -> Westbrook was upgraded to Questionable
PACE (OKC): 13th Proj Poss: +4.4
PACE (SAC): 3rd Proj Poss: +1.2
We have a few things going for us with this game; (1) it’s a massive overall pace up spot & (2) it’s the late game on the slate which means it may go overlooked.
USG&FP/M; PG13 33%/1.22, Schroder 31%/1.01, Adams 22%/1.07, Grant 17%/0.80
With Westbrook OUT, Paul George continues to dominate and no one is playing him since he has been priced right around 10k on DraftKings. He could go overlooked again tonight and could very easily put up 60+ in a fast paced matchup against the Kings. He is one of my favorite plays on this slate.
Paul George, SF/PF, 10,400 -> Elite if Westbrook is Out.
Russell Westbrook, PG, 10,200 -> Elite GPP if PLAYING and NO RESTRICTION
Steven Adams, C, 7,500 -> Solid of Westbrook is out.
USG&FP/M; Hield 26.5%/1.05, Fox 26%/1.16, Bogdan 24.5%/0.95, Bagley 23%/1.01, Cauley-Stein 23%/1.11, Nemanja 18%/1.02, Shumpert 15%/0.77
The Kings are coming off a blowout loss to the Rockets where no one saw over 30 minutes. With Bogdan back, this rotation is just not as predictable. Here’s how minutes looked over their past few games;
Rockets (blowout); No one saw over 30
Grizz; Fox 36, Cauley-Stein 35, Shumpert 31.5, Bjelica 28, Hield 27.5, Bogdan 24, Magley 20
Spurs; Cauley-Stein 32, Fox 31,Bjelica 26.7, Shump 26, Hield 25.8, Bogdan 24.7, Bagley 21.2
Lakers (blowout); Fox 39, no one else saw over 26
DeAaron Fox, PG, 6,100 -> Elite if Schroder is starting & Westbrook is out. I love the matchup in this scenario.
Buddy Hield, SG/SF, 5,600 -> Solid to Elite GPP -> He tends to get more run if his shot is falling.
Marvin Bagley, PF, 3,900 -> Solid to Elite GPP value-> Word on the street is Dave Joerger’s job could be in jeopardy if Bagley isn’t given more minutes.
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, 5,800-> They will need his size on the court to matchup with Adams.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF, 4,000-> Fine GPP
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