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It’s FRRRIIIIDDDAAAYYYYY!!! It’s been a long week but we get to end it with two of the biggest NBA games of the season. The playoffs have been a money maker as expected with condensed rotations, which means less variance. There have been some injuries (Danny Green last night), but it’s been a profitable playoffs so far. These two game slates are a lot of fun and at this point we should all be very familiar with the rotations for these teams. I’ve done a little extra research today so hopefully we can uncover some edges this evening.
INJURIES
- Robert Williams – Q
- Otto Porter Jr. – Q
We have a little bit of injury news to deal with today. Otto Porter Jr. was at shoot around so I do expect him to play. Robert Williams I’m not so sure as he’s missed the last two games, so I’m expecting him to sit tonight. We’ll get the news on “Timelord” before lock so make sure to monitor the news leading up to lock as always.
GUARDS
At guard we again get a chalky Tyus Jones. His price has risen to $5,700 but this is still too cheap a price tag. Tyus is at .96 fantasy points per minute with Ja Morant off the floor and we can expect close to 40 minutes tonight, which makes him grade out as one of the best plays of the slate. He’s projected for over 50% ownership but I expect to get overweight on that number tonight. The other guard play I’ve been playing a bunch of lately is Jrue Holiday. Jrue was priced at $8,200 last game and put up 53 fantasy points, yet Draftkings decided to reduce his price by $300 to $7,900. Jrue is playing 40+ minutes of late and gets a massive game at home with Boston. In addition, Jrue has yet to have an efficient shooting night in this series. If Jrue is hitting his shots tonight he has 60+ fantasy point upside. I’ll be getting to as much Jrue as possible.
FORWARDS
Forward again has Giannis Antetokounmpo as the priority spend up on the slate. I’ll make sure to try and get over the field on him as he’s projected to be the highest fantasy points scorer on the slate by 10 fantasy points. He’ll be chalky but with this many solid value options for a two game slate, Giannis seems unavoidable in both cash games and tournaments this evening. One lower owned play I like at Forward is Andrew Wiggins. It seems like with all the firepower Golden State has in Curry, Klay, Poole and Draymond that people forget about Andrew Wiggins even though he was an All Star this year. Wiggins is projected for a very modest 20% ownership tonight and is priced all the way down to $5,600 in a massive home game I’m expecting upwards of 35 minutes tonight from Wiggins and he typically produces around .9 fantasy points per minute, which makes him look like one of the best value options on the slate. I see Wiggins as the edge on this slate and I’ll make sure to get overweight in this spot.
CENTER
Steven Adams has been starting the last two games and Draftkings still hasn’t bumped the salary up enough. He’s priced at $4,500 and is over a fantasy point per minute producer with Morant off the floor. We can comfortably project him for 25 minutes with upside for more which makes him look like a great value option. He’s expected to have over 50% ownership tonight but I still want to be overweight that number in large field GPPs. I do have a couple sneaky value options I like at Center for large field GPPs only. Kevon Looney is priced at almost the stone minimum ($3,300 on DK) and there is a path for him to see 20+ minutes tonight. In the last 3 games of the series he’s been seeing around 15 minutes of playing time but with Otto questionable and the Warriors getting off the slow starts the last couple games with Kuminga starting, I think we see Looney re-enter the starting rotation to better match-up with Steven Adams. Should Looney start, I’d expect around 20 minutes of playing time and he produces around a fantasy point per minute on average. I’m expecting single digit ownership on Looney tonight and he’s a great way to get a little different in large field GPPs. The other cheap Center I like tonight for large-field GPPs is Brandon Clarke. It looks like Adams and Clarke are splitting the Center minutes so if for some reason Adams sees less minutes, it most likely means Clarke is the beneficiary. This is what you call getting leverage on the field if Adams fails. I’ll set a rule to have at most 1 of Clarke or Adams, but I do want to try and get overweight the field on both tonight.
I really like this slate, with some great value and spend-up options for a two game slate. In GPPs, don’t be afraid to get a little different as Memphis in general is hard to predict, with their rotations changing from game to game. If Golden State starts off strong tonight it could mean low minutes for Adams so I’ll be building a few line-ups with that game scenario in mind. Hopefully we can end the week on a high note. Enjoy the games tonight!
Cash Plays: Tyus Jones, Jrue Holiday, Giannis, Derrick White, Andrew Wiggins
GPP Plays: Andrew Wiggins, Jrue Holiday, Giannis, Brandon Clarke, Kevon Looney, Desmond Bane
