We grabbed a win on PrizePicks in the first game of the NBA Finals last night. Al Horford was one of the top scorers on the court, easily beating his 10.5 point total. Draymond Green recorded 4 assists at halftime, but he struggled to find them in the second half. Ultimately, he ended below his total of 6. It was a great night, but we’re shifting sports and sites for this game. Below, you’ll find my favorite Monkey Knife Fight play for the Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers game.
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Prop Pick – Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers
Logan Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts
Gilbert’s looked outstanding throughout the season, posting a 2.29 ERA with a 3.56 xFIP. He owns a 9.2 K/9 with 25.4% strikeout, 11% swinging-strike, and 25.5% CSW rates through 59 innings.
Gilbert’s seen mixed results at times in terms of strikeouts. He’s posted 6+ strikeouts in 5 of his 10 starts. His strikeouts have dropped in recent games but none of his advanced metrics have changed. Ultimately, I expect him to return to roughly 1 strikeout per inning sooner rather than later.
Gilbert gets a solid matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. Texas is generally seen as a team that doesn’t strike out against right-handed pitching, but they do. They currently strike out at the 12th-highest rate (23.2%) in the MLB against righties. Texas is also striking out at the ninth-highest rate (23%) in the league over the last 14 days.
I expect Gilbert to throw extremely well in this game, and he could easily see 6+ innings. If that’s the case, he’ll see plenty of opportunities for strikeouts, although I believe he can hit the over even if he only throws 5 or so innings.
Dane Dunning over 4.5 strikeouts
This is a shockingly low total for Dunning. He owns a 4.31 ERA with a 3.39 xFIP through 54.1 innings. He’s also recorded a 9.3 K/9 with 23.5% strikeout, 10.4% swinging-strike, and 29.9% CSW rates this season.
Dunning’s posted 5+ strikeouts in 8 of his 10 starts this season. He’s also hit this in each of his 5 starts in Texas in 2022. The key to this is that Dunning’s strikeout rate increases from 20.5% on the road to 26.7% at home. This has been the case throughout his entire career as well.
The young pitcher gets a solid matchup against the Seattle Mariners. They’re roughly an average strikeout team against right-handed pitching this season. They are striking out at the 11th-highest rate (22.5%) over the last 14 days.
I don’t necessarily love the matchup, but I think it’s fine, specifically for this number. I’d take Dunning against most offenses for over 4.5 strikeouts at home this season, and this is far from the worst matchup he could draw.
Bet Logan Gilbert “more than” 5.5 strikeouts and Dane Dunning “more than” 4.5 strikeouts to 3x your buy-in
