Welcome to Ronnie’s 3 Ups and 3 Downs! This column looks at some fascinating matchups and facts that might pique the interest of the reader as that day’s games are reviewed. This is my attempt at creating compelling thought on any given day.
Ups
Christian Yelich
Over the last 7 days Yelich is leading the Major leagues with a 347 wRC+. He is also leading MLB in that time in oRAA (9.3), fWAR (1.0), and a ridiculous .960 ISO. In that time he has made 7 starts hitting 8 home runs and walking at a 13.8% rate. Yelich is on a tear, look for him to keep it rolling against the Jack Flaherty and the St Louis Cardinals.
Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna is another hitter that is on fire over the last week. In his last 28 PA he has an incredible 21.4% walk rate while crushing balls with an amazing .714 ISO. Ozuna is making 64.7% HC in his last 7 games and he has a 50.0% HR/FB, which is convenient for him since he is hitting fly balls at 58.8%.
Chris Sale
Off to the worst start of his career, Sale is winless through his first 4 starts of the season. In 18 total innings of work he has a bloated 8.50 ERA. Looking beyond the surface however, there are some positives to take away. Sale has allowed quite a few hits but that’s more due to poor defense and bad luck than anything else with a .310 BABIP. His 46.8% GB is the third best of his career, and his 4.68 SIERA suggests that his ERA is quite inflated over his actual performance. He faces the Detroit Tigers at home in Boston. The Tigers are abysmal this year against left handed pitching with a 58 wRC+, 25.6% K, and a 52.0% GB. Sale is primed for his first win of the season in this matchup.
Downs
Andrew McCutchen
Avoid McCutchen right now. While he is hitting a respectable 117 wRC+ over his last 7 starts, some of his peripheral stats aren’t holding up. He’s making just 20.8% HC in that time with a very hgh 54.2% GB. He has a 73.6% contact rate in those games and is striking out at a 20.0% clip.
Mookie Betts
In 29 pitches against left handers this season Betts has a .155 wOBA. He’s struggled against southpaws making just 17,4% HC and hitting ground balls at a 4.5% rate. This is key in today’s matchup at he faced the Tigers Matt Boyd. The Detroit lefty has been brilliant so far in 2019. In 24.1 innings he’s striking out 13.4/9 with a 2.83 SIERA.
Jake Arrieta
Arrieta is having a fine season so far. He is leading the NL in wins with 3, owns a 2.25 ERA and a very impressive 199 ERA+. He is showing some concerning numbers however. He is walking hitters at a 10.9% clip and he has a career low 16.4% K. This is the game that things start to normalize for Arrieta. He is one of the most sinker heavy pitchers in the game, throwing the pitch 54.6% of the time. The New York Mets, his opponent this evening, ranks third in the Majors with a 9.8 wSI.
